StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Meant to post it earlier, here is the storm track difference in the 12z Euro and 18Z Euro. 12Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 One little piece of energy to the north is screwing up the Friday storm until it gets mostly to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS and Canadian trending slower which brings our chances up on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Dramatically different D10+ look on the GFS compared to the 12z and 18z for sure. That's one frigid upper low playing traffic cop to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Winter Storm Warning has been extended down to Sedgwick County including wichita. 2-4" with wind gusts over 50mph at times in the morning. Schools cancelling quickly now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Winter Storm Warning has been extended down to Sedgwick County including wichita. 2-4" with wind gusts over 50mph at times in the morning. Schools cancelling quickly now. Guess it's not coming down heavy enough for a Blizzard warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I'm not sure. I think blizzard criteria will be met at times but maybe we don't hit the duration needed? The videos from the blizzard in western Kansas have been intense! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 00z Euro is slower for Fri but just not quite enough. EDIT: The Sunday/Monday system looks great for OK/AR though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Woke up to maybe a 1/4-1/2 of snow up here in Owasso. Considering I wrote the storm off a few days ago, it’s a pleasant sight to wake up to. Lots of wrecks occurring in Tulsa as we speak from slick roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well, while it wasn't a blockbuster snow, it certainly provided more excitement than I thought after giving up hope of getting more than a trace to 1" 24 hours prior to. The storm tracked south of guidance and provided another 3-4" snow with lots of wind. It also flash froze all the prior standing water and slush once that that front moved through. I'm happy I got something out of this because I'm not thrilled on trends for late week storm at the moment. I can't complain with two 3" snows within 5 days. Side note: The Chiefs playoff game looks to be brutally cold. Yikes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Beginning to see a trend for Friday's storm. Seems like there might be enough lift and moisture available on the back end of the storm to give us a couple inches, maybe more. Canadian GFS 6Z Euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Over the last few runs most of the models continue to speed up the cold front on Friday. Typing this on my phone so the formatting could be wonky when I post this. HR 72 temp for Bentonville ICON - 48 GFS - 25 CMC - 44 NAM - 42 RGEM - 45 Euro - 47 (06 run) HR 78 temp ICON - 24 GFS - 20 CMC - 21 NAM - 29 RGEM - 18 Euro - 44 (06 run) By hr 84 all models (except NAM) are in the mid teens to lower 20’s. RECAP: GFS is much faster with the front. Euro much slower. NAM is pretty much non-existent with the front at all. Temps on the ICON after hour 84 are stupid cold. 5 straight days below zero. There should be a quick changeover to snow. We need to continue to see the trend of a faster solution. One additional note regarding faster push from GFS: Tulsa’s temp at 06z Friday: 18z run yesterday - 50 00z run - 49 06z run - 31 12z run - 27 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We're reeling Fri/Sat back in fellas. Won't be a historic one but it looks like it might deliver something. And then the COLD begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Euro keeps Sunday/Monday event alive and well.(With a nasty ice storm in DFW) The system doesn't dig as much as the 0Z run, but it doesn't make much of a difference in the output. Slow moving on this run, so it's nearly 24 hours of snow, in 10 degrees the entire time. Almost everyone here gets a around a foot(NW AR and SW MO need to take off 3-5 inches from this since it is including Friday's storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 32 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Euro keeps Sunday/Monday event alive and well.(With a nasty ice storm in DFW) The system doesn't dig as much as the 0Z run, but it doesn't make much of a difference in the output. Slow moving on this run, so it's nearly 24 hours of snow, in 10 degrees the entire time. Almost everyone here gets a around a foot(NW AR and SW MO need to take off 3-5 inches from this since it is including Friday's storm. Sir this is a family forum. Images like this are not permitted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here is the 50 member avg for the Euro(non Kuchera amounts) for Sun/Mon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Roads are starting to get slick in Springfield. I think a flash freeze is a real possibility tonight. Saw a MoDOT plow in the ditch on the way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Steady snow with some pretty gusty winds here in Southeast Missouri. Don’t know that it’ll really accumulate given how wet it is and temps but the change from earlier today is pretty striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Canadian with a nice nudge east and increased amounts. The GFS also has moved east some and increased amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Local Mets are far from excited about Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Yeah the Fri system gets screwed up because there's a small piece of energy to the north that doesn't fall apart until it's too late so the trough stays positive for far too long. Early on that wasn't supposed to be there so we had a strongly negative trough coming through pushing all kinds of precip back in the cold air. One small thing can screw everything up, though. The 00z GFS looks very cold for a very long time. There is a very persistent -EPO showing up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Another meaningful shift on the GFS bringing it more in line with the euro and Canadian. 7-11 inches for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 24 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow. For what it’s worth, the 06Z Euro ensemble trended much wetter than the 0Z. So it increased amounts. I’ll post a map when I’m in front of my computer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Here is the 06Z Euro ensembles. Here was the 12Z Euro ensembles for reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 A delightful 12Z Canadian run as well... Edit: Canadian and GFS ensembles both coming in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 For what it’s worth (which might not be much) the RGEM, RAP, and HRRR have 1-2” for NWAR and Missouri. Lesser amounts further west. Cue the “So you’re saying there’s a chance” GIF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro looks different from previous run, but still outputs a similar solution. Main differences being that the storm is slower by about 6 hours and totals aren't as high in SW MO and central and NW AR. Also Western OK really gets in on the action. Either way, doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the consensus that is developing. A broad area of precip will move over the area and produce good snow thanks to high ratios. I know we will still wiggle around north and south between now and Sunday, but I feel like this is more or less our solution with some massaging to do. I don't see the snow being pulled out from under our feet with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro Ensembles are in(remember, these are with 10:1 ratios). BIG trend toward a snowier solution for all of us. First I'll post last night's. And now this afternoon's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Euro Ensembles are in(remember, these are with 10:1 ratios). BIG trend toward a snowier solution for all of us. First I'll post last night's. And now this afternoon's. Thanks for the info! What do the Ensembles show for the Friday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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