stormdragonwx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Yeah I am writing off Tuesdays setup and holding out hope for Friday... if it doesn't stay too far north too. The next 72 hours will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 FWIW. The Canadian ensembles don’t agree much with the actual run. I can’t post at the moment, but the original run shows nothing, up to a dusting for most of our forum area. The ensembles show about 2.5 inches for all of us. Which, for an ensemble average, 5 days out, is pretty decent. So I’m going the Canadian goes south again with plenty of energy. Staying up for the euro but I’m tired haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Didn’t love last night’s Euro. But the gfs didn’t budge this morning. Sticking to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Verbatim the 6z GFS has snow falling for 24 hrs straight IMBY for the Fri-Sat storm. Kuchera gives me 22” of digital snow. Even the 10:1 says 18” I swear if this rug gets pulled out from under me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said: Verbatim the 6z GFS has snow falling for 24 hrs straight IMBY for the Fri-Sat storm. Kuchera gives me 22” of digital snow. Even the 10:1 says 18” I swear if this rug gets pulled out from under me.. The problem is it’s kind of GFS vs the world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 My money is on the 12z GFS. I'll take that 26" bullseye of snow over NWA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro out here breaking hearts. I’ll post some member data when it comes out to see what the story is. The Canadian actually did inch more toward the GFS. Not drastically, but it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 18z GFS Friday system gets screwed up by a lead wave on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, JoMo said: 18z GFS Friday system gets screwed up by a lead wave on Thurs. Well that’s new. Not surprising though. Hopefully it’s a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I am putting all my faith in the nam. It has never let me down before 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Models still looking kinda depressing. Looks like the rug got pulled out for a lot of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’m sad. But I’ll never learn. ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I’m sad. But I’ll never learn. ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week. Setup for that one is a lot simpler. Just a question of whether the cold will sink as far south as it's been projected to sink for... awhile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: I’m sad. But I’ll never learn. ONTO THE NEXT ONE! SUN-TUES next week. Lucy getting the football ready again...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Funny you mention this as I was just noticing the same thing and was in the process of posting about it. It's fun to look that the trend of the HRRR & RAP over of the last 12hrs or so. In fact, most recent HRRR now bringing in a healthy band of snow into the ICT area overnight. Will be something to at least monitor now. 13 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 34 degrees and rain still sucks even when you are expecting it. Sun-Tues system still looks somewhat interesting, should be some high ratios with that snow for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, JoMo said: 34 degrees and rain still sucks even when you are expecting it. Sun-Tues system still looks somewhat interesting, should be some high ratios with that snow for some. I think the Friday system could still be interesting. Cold air should be crashing in and models typically don’t handle that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18z NAM trended towards HRRR for tomorrow. Still nothing to get too excited about but maybe we can eke out an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 18z ICON/GFS say Friday system may get interesting again if it continues showing more of a neg tilt again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 That is some cold air that snow will be falling into on Monday morning according to the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 36 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: That is some cold air that snow will be falling into on Monday morning according to the 18z GFS. Yeah, those are some high ratios. Not sure what the math is, but I’d say 15-20:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 28 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Yeah, those are some high ratios. Not sure what the math is, but I’d say 15-20:1? Yeah, looks about right. 16-20 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I would expect Friday totals to ramp up once the models catch up to this arctic air surging in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Absolutely disgusting mix of rain, sleet and a couple snowflakes here and there right now in SEMO. Just vile and coming down pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess. It has been an interesting trend for sure. You guys in Wichita might get 4+ out of it. Hoping we can see that same trend as it gets into NWAR/SWMO tomorrow morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 48 minutes ago, RocketWX said: Going to very curious to see the final totals for this storm. Everytime I look at trends it seems be ever so slightly deeper and south when it comes to the ULL. 24 hrs ago I thought I may not get an inch here in Wichita and now I could see areas very near Wichita waking up to a decent snow. Combined with the winds could be a huge mess. Rain is changing to snow in Newton and Goddard, won’t be long for us. Gonna be an interesting night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 FWIW, the 18Z Euro is a little slower with Friday’s storm than on the 12z. But it doesn’t go out far enough to see the output. Curious if the 12z follows suit. Would love to get a surprise inch of snow in Tulsa tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 34 and sleet here currently . Making the ramp outback a little slippery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now