stormdragonwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Rapid changeover happening in eastern OK right now. Possible heavy snow occurring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Got up at 6, went back to sleep and in an hour it must have been coming down here in Fayetteville.... Everything's covered, not sure how much prbly 2/2.5 inches of wet heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah a definite overperformer over here. Got an inch in less than an hour. Its covering streets and driveways too. Probably have 2+ inches on the east side of town. The heaviest part of the band hasn't moved all the way thru yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah a definite overperformer over here. Got an inch in less than an hour. Its covering streets and driveways too. Probably have 2+ inches on the east side of town. The heaviest part of the band hasn't moved all the way thru yet. Yea man the back roads are heavy wet slop here. Our car looks like it has about 3.5" on it now, insane snow rates. Over performer for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Probably an inch or so here in Bentonville. In the words of Billy Madison, not too shabby. Let’s hope this is the appetizer to next week’s main course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Yea man the back roads are heavy wet slop here. Our car looks like it has about 3.5" on it now, insane snow rates. Over performer for sure! Up to 3" here now too and the band has still not cleared the area yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I would say about an inch here just north of Pea Ridge. I think Fayetteville was the big winner with this. Heard 49 south of Fayetteville is a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We have about 3” on the ground here in Wichita. Roads are all gummed up. Has anyone checked out the models this morning on storm #2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 In addition to the Tues system, it looks like we will probably also have a Friday system. From there the models diverge a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Underperformer here in Tulsa. The changeover was brief(maybe 20 min?) and then back to rain. So woke up to nothing here :/ Oh well, hard to be upset when we have the upcoming pattern that we do. Plenty of cold and an active southern jet stream? Sounds like a recipe for snow/ice to me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Long range GFS wind chill. Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Tues system is just a smidge slow at tilting at the right time. The models have it deeping though as it passes. Looks like the GEM is farthest south . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 The Friday system is beastly on the 12z Euro and farther south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro finally biting on next Friday's storm. GFS Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z Euro is quite simply a monster of a storm for the I-44 corridor next week. The overall pattern with an Arctic air mass dumping into the NW and a very potent jet/baroclinic zone seems supportive of something bigger for this region in that timeframe, although exact timing of shortwave amplification will dictate when and how high the ceiling might be. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What a pattern! Received roughly 3" here on the southeast side of Wichita. Borderline freezing temps but still a beautiful snow. As for the Monday storm, agreed with what has been said. Not sure what to think just yet for South Central KS pending track of ULL and when it goes neutral to negative tilt. Right now it seems a bit too late but still could get something out of it. Then yet another system to track next Friday that all models seem to now be picking up on. Haven't had time to dive into models other than a quick look but should be fun to monitor! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I like the difference between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro for 18z Sun the 14th though. 00z run had a balmy 46 degrees in Tulsa... 12z run has it at 11 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 King Euro needs to come through for us in SEMO. Don't like what the GFS has been selling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Tulsa playing it conservative as usual. lol I guess they really don't trust the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Snow TV here in SEMO. About to head up to STL on a bit of a drive this evening. Don’t expect roadways to be a problem. Still well above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Tulsa playing it conservative as usual. lol I guess they really don't trust the models. Nah, they just don't know where the track/precip will be. They did say this in the AFD today: Quote This forecast period should be followed closely as the strength of the system would allow for overachieving elements and the track and corresponding precip footprint has yet to be totally agreed upon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I'll take this Euro run. See if it holds for the upcoming 00z run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 00z NAM with the more northern turn this run. Will other models follow? Tune in next run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS appears to be much slower and slightly deeper this run. 500mb low deepens as it moves east across western Oklahoma. Decent hit for Kansas, with strong winds…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 That Friday system still looks like a beast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Looks like a big spread between the GEM and GFS towards the Friday system and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Significant differences at hour 84 with the NAM versus GFS/GEM. NAM seems to be the outlier as of now which is in our favor. I’m pretty sure the NAM typically sucks that far out. Hoping the Euro is in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I've felt the Euro has always performed the best on Winter Scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said: Snow TV here in SEMO. About to head up to STL on a bit of a drive this evening. Don’t expect roadways to be a problem. Still well above freezing Well that drive back home was more of an adventure than I expected, especially in the van with all the kids in the car. Definitely WWA criteria hit in Jefferson and Ste Gen counties just south of STL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 New wrinkle from the Euro on this latest run, it cuts off the upper low as it strengthens during the day Monday (similar to the 00z GEM). Looks to be a colder and slower solution, too. Of course, the end result will likely be a blizzard for some portion of Kansas/N OK. EDIT: Holy boats, this 00z Euro run is pure weather porn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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