Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 A storm forming E of the Caribbean in the second half of October is something. Possible threat to the N Lesser Antilles. NHC forecast predicts interaction with the islands. NHC is a bit W of most of the guidance, but I'm guessing they would rather low watches than raise watches on short notice. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Thanks for starting the thread, Ed. The ECMWF and EPS have been handling Tammy's intensification and track poorly (GEFS has had better handle). Hopefully with the 12Z run the EPS should be a more useful tool, once recon data is ingested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Hurricane Tammy Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202023 1000 AM AST Fri Oct 20 2023 ...TAMMY BECOMES A HURRICANE... NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Tammy has become a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. The initial and forecast intensities will be updated with the next advisory that will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 58.5W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Wow, didn't expect the TC to reach hurricane intensity with shear in place. May be a short-term classification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Completely wild intensification in the face of shear. Radar out of Barbados shows a very tight core https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Hurricane Tammy has strengthened a bit up to 80 mph as the core gets close to Martinique and Dominica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 ECMWF wants Tammy to miss the trough and stall just north of Puerto Rico. It would likely be in a sheared environment there while in a blocked steering flow. The GFS still allows the trough to capture Tammy and bring it SE of Bermuda, then leaves it behind. The GFS does place Tammy in a better environment for intensification as it moves N, prior to a being left behind, however. Some of the TC models even show a major hurricane, though I'm not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Tammy has made a direct hit on the island of Barbuda. An official landfall as well.Edit: The hospital in Barbuda recorded 78 kt sustained winds in the eyewall. Unofficial, of course; I am sure the station anemometer will need to be checked. Tammy has a very small core, but clearly, the LLC vorticity maximum remains healthy. Additionally, it is riding against the ridge to its NW. The gradient is strong, so I am not surprised at the wind reading if it is verified. Especially if elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Quite a nasty lashing for Barbuda, still an obvious far cry from Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Maybe not so soon to be forgotten? The 0Z UKMET has a mainly westbound to WNW moving Tammy hours 120-168: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 61.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.10.2023 0 17.5N 61.5W 999 48 1200UTC 22.10.2023 12 18.7N 62.4W 1003 45 0000UTC 23.10.2023 24 19.8N 63.5W 1003 41 1200UTC 23.10.2023 36 20.8N 63.7W 1004 39 0000UTC 24.10.2023 48 21.7N 63.8W 1004 36 1200UTC 24.10.2023 60 22.1N 63.5W 1004 37 0000UTC 25.10.2023 72 21.2N 64.2W 1004 29 1200UTC 25.10.2023 84 21.4N 63.3W 1003 30 0000UTC 26.10.2023 96 21.7N 62.2W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.10.2023 108 23.5N 61.7W 999 37 0000UTC 27.10.2023 120 24.9N 61.7W 999 41 1200UTC 27.10.2023 132 25.9N 63.7W 999 39 0000UTC 28.10.2023 144 26.6N 66.8W 998 40 1200UTC 28.10.2023 156 26.2N 69.4W 997 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 168 26.4N 71.2W 1000 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Maybe not so soon to be forgotten? The 0Z UKMET has a mainly westbound to WNW moving Tammy hours 120-168: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 61.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.10.2023 0 17.5N 61.5W 999 48 1200UTC 22.10.2023 12 18.7N 62.4W 1003 45 0000UTC 23.10.2023 24 19.8N 63.5W 1003 41 1200UTC 23.10.2023 36 20.8N 63.7W 1004 39 0000UTC 24.10.2023 48 21.7N 63.8W 1004 36 1200UTC 24.10.2023 60 22.1N 63.5W 1004 37 0000UTC 25.10.2023 72 21.2N 64.2W 1004 29 1200UTC 25.10.2023 84 21.4N 63.3W 1003 30 0000UTC 26.10.2023 96 21.7N 62.2W 1001 31 1200UTC 26.10.2023 108 23.5N 61.7W 999 37 0000UTC 27.10.2023 120 24.9N 61.7W 999 41 1200UTC 27.10.2023 132 25.9N 63.7W 999 39 0000UTC 28.10.2023 144 26.6N 66.8W 998 40 1200UTC 28.10.2023 156 26.2N 69.4W 997 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 168 26.4N 71.2W 1000 37 I thought the name of this thread was a little imbecilic anyways. I knew this could be a hurricane and could get close to the islands. I don't know why so many were so immediately negative on development chances. The wave was strong, model guidance supported development, and we've had 20 named storms this hurricane season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 I thought the name of this thread was a little imbecilic anyways. I knew this could be a hurricane and could get close to the islands. I don't know why so many were so immediately negative on development chances. The wave was strong, model guidance supported development, and we've had 20 named storms this hurricane season.Shear. Development? Sure. But a long duration hurricane? Very unsure.. A few clicks west, even now, and this vortex gets shredded. And any amount of poor modeling of that shear axis might still not account for it getting shredded tomorrow. For a hurricane, Tammy has been living on the edge. It has remained just barely east of some very strong shear values and has kept pulsing just enough to maintain its open eyewall. Even the more NNW turn likely kept the mid-level circulation from being decapitated tonight. I never expected Tammy to become a hurricane, and I definitely didn't think it would remain one this long.That being said, the title could use a bit of an edit, @Ed, snow and hurricane fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Shear. Development? Sure. But a long duration hurricane? Very unsure.. A few clicks west, even now, and this vortex gets shredded. And any amount of poor modeling of that shear axis might still not account for it getting shredded tomorrow. For a hurricane, Tammy has been living on the edge. It has remained just barely east of some very strong shear values and has kept pulsing just enough to maintain its open eyewall. Even the more NNW turn likely kept the mid-level circulation from being decapitated tonight. I never expected Tammy to become a hurricane, and I definitely didn't think it would remain one this long. That being said, the title could use a bit of an edit, @Ed, snow and hurricane fan After Philippe made it all the way to Barbuda, I became slightly more bullish on Tammy making it further west. I often find myself a little more bullish in general with regards to October hurricanes. I've seen many systems struggle until they near the Caribbean and then find a more safe harbor for development. Iris 2001, Lili 2002, Tomas 2010, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: Shear. Development? Sure. But a long duration hurricane? Very unsure.. A few clicks west, even now, and this vortex gets shredded. And any amount of poor modeling of that shear axis might still not account for it getting shredded tomorrow. For a hurricane, Tammy has been living on the edge. It has remained just barely east of some very strong shear values and has kept pulsing just enough to maintain its open eyewall. Even the more NNW turn likely kept the mid-level circulation from being decapitated tonight. I never expected Tammy to become a hurricane, and I definitely didn't think it would remain one this long. That being said, the title could use a bit of an edit, @Ed, snow and hurricane fan Edited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Edited The 0Z UKMET at the end (168) has a 590 dm H5 ridge centered over the GOM and a trough dipping down into the SW US (see image below) moving very slowly E with TS Tammy blocked in and thus then moving just N of due W at just under 10 mph. It is hard to tell what she would do after this point had the maps gone out further although a subsequent continued W heading would be most likely at first although soon after I would think it would start to recurve as the blocking high eventually weakens and gives way: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z run with a W heading 108-168 at ~10 mph slightly N of 0Z run: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 62.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.10.2023 0 18.9N 62.6W 998 50 0000UTC 23.10.2023 12 20.2N 63.8W 1000 38 1200UTC 23.10.2023 24 21.4N 63.7W 1001 42 0000UTC 24.10.2023 36 22.2N 63.3W 1000 42 1200UTC 24.10.2023 48 22.6N 62.9W 1001 38 0000UTC 25.10.2023 60 22.8N 62.6W 1001 30 1200UTC 25.10.2023 72 23.7N 61.4W 999 36 0000UTC 26.10.2023 84 25.0N 59.7W 996 54 1200UTC 26.10.2023 96 26.7N 59.1W 995 49 0000UTC 27.10.2023 108 27.2N 61.0W 997 43 1200UTC 27.10.2023 120 27.7N 64.0W 998 45 0000UTC 28.10.2023 132 27.7N 67.7W 995 39 1200UTC 28.10.2023 144 27.5N 69.8W 997 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 156 27.6N 71.5W 1000 37 1200UTC 29.10.2023 168 27.2N 73.4W 1003 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 No recon tomorrow or Tuesday. Quote 000 NOUS42 KNHC 221345 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0945 AM EDT SUN 22 OCTOBER 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-145 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ WJM NNNN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 0Z GFS/CMC: keep it well OTS from Bahamas/CONUS 0Z ICON: after initially going NE turns west and goes into S FL at 180 as a weakening low 0Z UKMET: similarly to at least last two runs it first goes NNE and later turns WSW at 10 mph making it to 150 miles E of the N Bahamas at 168 while then weakening: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 63.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 23.10.2023 0 20.3N 63.8W 999 47 1200UTC 23.10.2023 12 21.7N 64.5W 1001 37 0000UTC 24.10.2023 24 22.3N 63.5W 999 39 1200UTC 24.10.2023 36 22.9N 62.8W 998 37 0000UTC 25.10.2023 48 23.5N 61.6W 997 36 1200UTC 25.10.2023 60 24.9N 60.0W 993 43 0000UTC 26.10.2023 72 26.7N 58.6W 988 57 1200UTC 26.10.2023 84 28.9N 58.1W 992 44 0000UTC 27.10.2023 96 29.8N 59.5W 997 48 1200UTC 27.10.2023 108 29.9N 62.1W 1000 41 0000UTC 28.10.2023 120 30.0N 65.8W 998 46 1200UTC 28.10.2023 132 30.3N 67.9W 1001 36 0000UTC 29.10.2023 144 29.5N 70.3W 1001 34 1200UTC 29.10.2023 156 28.0N 72.6W 1003 31 0000UTC 30.10.2023 168 27.2N 74.7W 1006 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 12Z UKMET changes its mind and doesn’t bring Tammy back W like prior 3+ runs: HURRICANE TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 64.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.10.2023 0 21.4N 64.2W 1004 37 0000UTC 24.10.2023 12 22.3N 63.7W 1002 42 1200UTC 24.10.2023 24 23.0N 62.8W 1001 38 0000UTC 25.10.2023 36 23.7N 61.5W 998 41 1200UTC 25.10.2023 48 24.6N 60.3W 997 42 0000UTC 26.10.2023 60 26.9N 58.1W 993 53 1200UTC 26.10.2023 72 29.5N 57.9W 993 47 0000UTC 27.10.2023 84 30.3N 59.1W 993 46 1200UTC 27.10.2023 96 31.1N 61.0W 996 43 0000UTC 28.10.2023 108 31.9N 62.9W 995 43 1200UTC 28.10.2023 120 33.0N 63.3W 998 35 0000UTC 29.10.2023 132 33.6N 62.4W 995 36 1200UTC 29.10.2023 144 34.2N 60.4W 998 38 0000UTC 30.10.2023 156 33.9N 58.6W 1002 32 1200UTC 30.10.2023 168 33.3N 56.9W 1006 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 18Z ICON at 120 hrs N Bahamas 998 mb TS moving W at ~15 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 0Z ICON just like 18Z ICON heads to S FL Sun night. That would be going against almost all of the W basin headings of the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Tammy looking the best it’s looked at any point right now. Might see a higher intensity than the 85 kt forecast if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Tammy looking the best it’s looked at any point right now. Might see a higher intensity than the 85 kt forecast if trends continue I agree! I wouldn't be surprised if Tammy makes a run at Category 3 strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I agree! I wouldn't be surprised if Tammy makes a run at Category 3 strength. Easily a cat 3 currently. Finding just an enough of a gap in shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Tammy has quickly become tropical again and is now a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now