mayjawintastawm Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 21 hours ago, Chinook said: I wonder how much snow is just under the trees, just beyond the meadow. Guessing a couple of feet. Was up around 9-10,000' yesterday and there is a decent snowpack, not great but not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said: As am I. A family funeral on the East Coast. I'm hoping the timing of the storm shifts a bit. I've got a back up plan scoped out, but I need the forecast to be solidified some since models are still waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 22 hours ago, Chinook said: I wonder how much snow is just under the trees, just beyond the meadow. In the protected areas of rmnp at that elevation, likely between 30-36”. Around 9500’ there is a 50” snowpack. The park above 9k’ is seeing a very normal snowpack, right at 100% of seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 10 hours ago, ValpoVike said: In the protected areas of rmnp at that elevation, likely between 30-36”. Around 9500’ there is a 50” snowpack. The park above 9k’ is seeing a very normal snowpack, right at 100% of seasonal average. that's great, I was further south (I-70 corridorish) and there is not quite as much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 A watch has been hoisted for the foothills and mountains mostly east of the Divide for Wednesday a.m. thru Thursday night. WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 1 to 2 feet, with isolated totals up to 3 feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 The NWS has 1" to 1.5" QPF for most of the area, and currently the temperatures at 5000 ft could be 32-40 degrees as it is snowing, or raining, and 32-34 degrees late at night on Thursday morning. Certainly some version of a winter storm watch will be incoming. Quote We have opted for a Winter Storm Watch across the Front Range mountains/foothills this afternoon, where confidence is highest, and will wait at least another forecast cycle or two before trying to fill in the rest of the forecast area with watches/warnings/advisories. Again - the bottom line here is to be prepared for a significant winter storm this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Really nicely written AFD once again by the folks at NWS BOU about the upcoming possible storm. Are they teaching their forecasters to write or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 And as if on cue, snow amounts in the point forecasts are starting to drop quickly for areas outside the mountains. DEN went from over a foot last night to maybe 4-5 inches for the whole event this morning, and my house went from 16 to 10 inches. So, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Models have been consistent for a couple of days on a stripe of 24”+ across the higher foothills while the lower elevations have flip flopped somewhat. I am in the stripe, but given the track record this season I have tempered my expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Warning has been issued for the front range, and it has been ramped up by another foot on high end: WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 18 to 36 inches, with isolated totals up to 48 inches possible. Heaviest amounts expected along the eastern slopes of the Front Range, lesser amounts will occur west of the Continental Divide. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 current NWS map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 wow. Point forecasts from most recent models for my place are tightly clustered from 21 to 24 inches. And I have to fly out Thursday AM- wish me luck.... no seats available tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I’m flying into Denver as we speak. I’m from NC and have never experienced a storm on the front range. We’re staying with my son in Thornton just a few miles east of I-25 and just inside I-470. Models are showing anywhere from 6” to just over 20”. AFD mentioned some occasional blizzard conditions on the Palmer divide and foothills I believe. Can anyone tell me what the criteria for blizzard conditions is here? Where I am in NC we need 1/8 mile visibility and I think sustained winds of 20 (maybe 25) or gusts over 35 (maybe 35). In my 58 years, that’s only happened one. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 53 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I’m flying into Denver as we speak. I’m from NC and have never experienced a storm on the front range. We’re staying with my son in Thornton just a few miles east of I-25 and just inside I-470. Models are showing anywhere from 6” to just over 20”. AFD mentioned some occasional blizzard conditions on the Palmer divide and foothills I believe. Can anyone tell me what the criteria for blizzard conditions is here? Where I am in NC we need 1/8 mile visibility and I think sustained winds of 20 (maybe 25) or gusts over 35 (maybe 35). In my 58 years, that’s only happened one. TW From NWS BOU: Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater (and) Visibilities frequently less than 1/4 mile (and) Considerable snow and/or blowing snow Unlikely we'll meet them here in the Metro area, but if you drove down I-25 past Castle Rock (not advised! :)) you might find some at the height of the storm. This storm is unusual in a few ways, including that it will most likely be less severe over the Plains. Every weather enthusiast should experience a Plains blizzard...once! And welcome, and enjoy! Do keep in mind that plowing/treating roads here is better than in NC, but not as good as in the Northeast. Getting stuck happens now and then. Bring a shovel and good boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Thanks for the response. My only blizzard warning was the Blizzard of '93. We're supposed to ski @ Winter Park on Friday. I think we take 25 south to 70 west to 40. Think we'll be able to make it. We have an F150 4WD. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 51 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Thanks for the response. My only blizzard warning was the Blizzard of '93. We're supposed to ski @ Winter Park on Friday. I think we take 25 south to 70 west to 40. Think we'll be able to make it. We have an F150 4WD. TW Maybe the pass will be open Friday morning, but check COTRIP before heading out in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 47 minutes ago, ValpoVike said: Maybe the pass will be open Friday morning, but check COTRIP before heading out in the morning. great point- Berthoud Pass was closed with actual avalanches affecting actual cars (rare!) last storm cycle, so I'd imagine CDOT will be very careful this cycle. If Berthoud's closed, only way to get to WP is I-70 through the tunnel then CO 9 up and around to US 40 East, quite a slog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: great point- Berthoud Pass was closed with actual avalanches affecting actual cars (rare!) last storm cycle, so I'd imagine CDOT will be very careful this cycle. If Berthoud's closed, only way to get to WP is I-70 through the tunnel then CO 9 up and around to US 40 East, quite a slog. And I would think it possible that I70 get's hit with some closures as well. I think your timing will be tricky. Saturday would be way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12z GFS gives me over 3.6" of qpf, mostly snow. NAM is about 3.2" qpf. Pretty wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 The temp profiles will make this really interesting- 3 feet of concrete in the foothills?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 27 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said: The temp profiles will make this really interesting- 3 feet of concrete in the foothills?? Yeah, I am a bit concerned about that. If the QPF verifies, and it is heavy/wet, the risk to power line infrastructure and trees could be high. I am mentally prepared for an extended power outage. I will admit that I still don't trust we get these crazy QPF amounts, but the trend is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Based on previously experience, I suspect that the changeover could happen sooner due to the strong upslope, which models often seem to struggle to account for. This could significantly increase forecasted totals on most of the models except maybe the HRRR, which shows similar QPF outputs to others, but higher snow totals. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 24 minutes ago, GansettBay said: Based on previously experience, I suspect that the changeover could happen sooner due to the strong upslope, which models often seem to struggle to account for. This could significantly increase forecasted totals on most of the models except maybe the HRRR, which shows similar QPF outputs to others, but higher snow totals. Any thoughts? This was discussed in the noon AFD update: In particular, there`s more aggressiveness about the late afternoon and evening convection and resulting heavy rain/snow and cooling temperatures. The convection allowing models typically overdo the intensity/coverage of the higher QPF amounts and are likely doing that this evening, but the idea of a round of vigorous showers and a few storms along with the resulting couple degrees extra cooling means there`s a higher threat of getting heavy snow starting a few hours earlier this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GansettBay Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 minutes ago, ValpoVike said: This was discussed in the noon AFD update: In particular, there`s more aggressiveness about the late afternoon and evening convection and resulting heavy rain/snow and cooling temperatures. The convection allowing models typically overdo the intensity/coverage of the higher QPF amounts and are likely doing that this evening, but the idea of a round of vigorous showers and a few storms along with the resulting couple degrees extra cooling means there`s a higher threat of getting heavy snow starting a few hours earlier this evening. Interesting! Thanks for sharing. I'll take a look at the full discussion when I get a moment later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 QPF totals: 18z NAM Boulder: 3.59" Denver: 2.65"18z GFS Boulder: 3.87" Denver: 2.56" Kuchera is wild for me...40" on the NAM and 38" on the GFS. Fun to look at, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Still early, but nada up here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 HRRR and RAP have backed off just a bit for areas around Thornton and Brighton. Probably mostly due to rain. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Well, on the ground: 0.45" of rain prior to a changeover at 8:25 PM (right on schedule for 5650'), with a heavy thunderstorm with hail added in around 7. The hail and flooding was enough to close NB I-225 just SW of Parker Rd because of accidents for a bit. Hail was only pea-size, but enough to pile up and make the road slippery for a bit till it melted. Not sticking to anything other than grassy/elevated surfaces yet, and 33 F. I'm rooting for it to stay that way till I have to leave the house at 5 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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