mayjawintastawm Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Most of us have now seen our first freeze of the season, and mountaintops are white for the foreseeable future (we hope!) Leaves are starting to look good in the Denver Metro, about a week behind schedule. The eclipse was very cool yesterday, though I couldn't get any pics that are good. Supposed to be 80 in Denver midweek. El Nino, what bring you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said: The eclipse was very cool yesterday, though I couldn't get any pics that are good. Regarding the solar eclipse yesterday (10/14), this is from a San Antonio, TX, NWS discussion just afterward (1:52PM): “HOPEFULLY MANY OF YOU WERE ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE NEAR THE PEAK OBSCURATION TIME. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE TOTAL ANNULARITY ACTUALLY DROPPED ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH THE PEAK OBSCURATION.” One can get a good idea of the cooling influence of the eclipse by looking at Austin’s hourlies from yesterday since they had near full sunshine and no front coming through. The partial started at 10:24AM, peak obscuration (nearly 90%) was at 11:54AM, and the partial ended at 1:32PM. Note the steady rise 8-10AM, followed by a slowing of the warming at 11AM once ~1/2 hour into partial, a cooling of 3F 11AM-noon when going from some partial to the near 90% obscuration peak, the most rapid hourly warming noon-1PM when going from peak to losing most of the obscuration, and then steady warming through 4PM after the eclipse ended: 8AM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM PTCLDY 62 41 46 N14 9AM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 64 41 42 N16 10AM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 67 40 37 N20G29 11AM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 68 41 37 N14 Noon: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 65 41 41 N12 1PM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 70 40 33 N16 2PM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 74 41 30 N15 3PM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 76 39 26 N14G22 4PM: AUSTIN/BERGSTM MOSUNNY 78 39 24 N13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Solar radiation data from my weather station. Pretty obvious where the eclipse is, with some clouds here and there messing with the pretty curve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 16, 2023 Author Share Posted October 16, 2023 6 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Solar radiation data from my weather station. Pretty obvious where the eclipse is, with some clouds here and there messing with the pretty curve. I have a new station and need to figure out how to look at those data. Nice! Where I was (probably 10-12 miles from you), there were also some patchy clouds until about 10:15 which probably messed things up a bit, but after that time skies were clear till the end of the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Hey Mayja, remember this 2021 dual-metro snowstorm? It somehow failed to drop heavier snows over the Palmer Divide but successfully dropped over 6" at Colorado Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 20, 2023 Author Share Posted October 20, 2023 17 hours ago, Chinook said: Hey Mayja, remember this 2021 dual-metro snowstorm? It somehow failed to drop heavier snows over the Palmer Divide but successfully dropped over 6" at Colorado Springs. We got just under a foot with that one, though SWE was vanishingly small. A couple weeks later we got a solid 22 inches. That was a good period in there, I think we got somewhere around 45" from mid-Feb to mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 I was going to try to discuss the upcoming pattern change, but I have some problems. The GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles don't even really agree as to the overall pattern at 6-7 days. ECMWF does not drop the freezing air into northern Colorado on Oct 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 21, 2023 Author Share Posted October 21, 2023 19 hours ago, Chinook said: I was going to try to discuss the upcoming pattern change, but I have some problems. The GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles don't even really agree as to the overall pattern at 6-7 days. ECMWF does not drop the freezing air into northern Colorado on Oct 26. When in doubt, seems like we go with persistence... not putting the shorts away or the snow tires on anytime soon. Our neighbors have a resurgence of ripe tomatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Here is the pattern change coming up. And even in saying this, the GFS and ECMWF have quite different temps for northern Colorado on Oct 26. Nevertheless, the colder air will be in the Northwest and it will move into Colorado at some point. It looks like the models have just light snow for the mountains with the overall system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 I am ready for proper fall weather - I have been trying to enjoy the mountain biking season as long as it lasts, but honestly the trails are getting pretty moisture starved. They need the slow/wet season to kick in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Saturday thru Sunday look interesting up here. GFS and ECMWF both showing some decent snow, around 6"-9". Trying not to get my hopes up, but cautiously optimistic as models seem to be generally aligned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 The models today have a lot more agreement on the development of snow on the front/jet, as mentioned by Valpovike. A lot of the QPF is similar. Maybe we're back to a somewhat more typical pre-Halloween snowstorm? It seems like the pre-Halloween snowstorm happened on a few years. That 700mb is not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 For the snow event: Today's 18z GFS really hits Denver with over 1.0" of QPF. The other models area not too far behind. Generally the models have areas of 0.4"+ for the QPF east of the mountains and maybe quite far east, along I-76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 I'll be in Estes Park for the weekend, NWS calling for 6-8 which sounds reasonable. Probably won't be going up into RMNP sadly. Denver looking like 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 The official forecast is a lot more bullish for my back yard than any model I've seen. The advisory I'm under doesn't even match that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 49 minutes ago, Newman said: I'll be in Estes Park for the weekend, NWS calling for 6-8 which sounds reasonable. Probably won't be going up into RMNP sadly. Denver looking like 8-12 Grab some microspikes and hike Gem Lake. You won’t have to drive the park but you can still get a hike in. Will be pretty cold though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 49 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: The official forecast is a lot more bullish for my back yard than any model I've seen. The advisory I'm under doesn't even match that map. That's weird. You would think that the winter storm watch, replaced by a winter storm warning, would be the normal scenario. That is, for over 8" in 24 hours I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Here is an image of the revamped aviationweather dot gov web site. It's possible to see the winter storm warning zones, observations, radar, and fronts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Been light snow the last few hours, still waiting for the good stuff to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 Several lightning strikes in a band just NW of Lake George. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Estes Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Snow bands have shifted around the area all day. I think Fort Collins may have gotten a lot as the snow started early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 I guess the NWS was right for my area. Got about 5-6" today and just got upgraded from advisory to warning for 3-6" more overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 9.5" with maybe another inch left to come. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Not sure exactly how much Estes Park got, but we lost power this morning at the cabin we're staying at for a few hours. Probably 8-10" range total. Had like 3-4" yesterday and 5-7" overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 45 minutes ago, Newman said: Not sure exactly how much Estes Park got, but we lost power this morning at the cabin we're staying at for a few hours. Probably 8-10" range total. Had like 3-4" yesterday and 5-7" overnight 11.5” here, about 5 miles north of town. Yeah power is out in the entire EP Valley. This is the 2nd time for the transmission lines running down to Loveland have failed over the past year. They are slowly bringing power back on line thru a backup source running thru the Alva tunnel that goes thru the divide west. So it will be back soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 16 hours ago, Chinook said: Snow bands have shifted around the area all day. I think Fort Collins may have gotten a lot as the snow started early I probably got around 6”. The ground ate a lot of the snow. My neighborhood still has mostly clear sidewalks but the cars all have a nice thick layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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