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Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!!


Steve
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5 hours ago, dilly84 said:

This may be the worst winter I can ever remember. I know a couple years ago was bad, but we aren't even getting nickel and dimed. I'm not sure where to check for snow totals for the winter, but I know it has to be under 4"

I was out this evening and it was 37 and raining on January 30.   I thought the same thing, this might be the worst winter I remember.   Even worse than the infamous 97-98 and 2011-2012, at least those had something to remember them by....granted 2011-12 was record warmth.

This winter has just been agonizingly BORING.   We had one week of cold weather that resulted in a couple of car toppers and I don't think my grass was ever completely covered.   

It doesn't help when pretty much every met, (except for a couple of our mets in this forum), kept a weenie on a stick for us since Nov. 

Looks like currently the can is sitting at mid February.....anyone wanna bet it gets kicked to the beginning of March?     I did not get my usual wxbell subscription this winter but I do follow JB on twitter....I follow him because the comments mocking him are hilarious and well deserved.  

Call it climate change, climate cycling, whatever you want but clearly we are experiencing something strange in the weather.   The headscratcher is that although the winters have been so warm and boring, we haven't had the same kind warmth increase in the summer.    Extremes on the warm side for summer are as rare as extremes on the cold side for winter.   It's like we've become a maritime climate.

buzzed rant over;)

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13 hours ago, buckeye said:

I was out this evening and it was 37 and raining on January 30.   I thought the same thing, this might be the worst winter I remember.   Even worse than the infamous 97-98 and 2011-2012, at least those had something to remember them by....granted 2011-12 was record warmth.

This winter has just been agonizingly BORING.   We had one week of cold weather that resulted in a couple of car toppers and I don't think my grass was ever completely covered.   

It doesn't help when pretty much every met, (except for a couple of our mets in this forum), kept a weenie on a stick for us since Nov. 

Looks like currently the can is sitting at mid February.....anyone wanna bet it gets kicked to the beginning of March?     I did not get my usual wxbell subscription this winter but I do follow JB on twitter....I follow him because the comments mocking him are hilarious and well deserved.  

Call it climate change, climate cycling, whatever you want but clearly we are experiencing something strange in the weather.   The headscratcher is that although the winters have been so warm and boring, we haven't had the same kind warmth increase in the summer.    Extremes on the warm side for summer are as rare as extremes on the cold side for winter.   It's like we've become a maritime climate.

buzzed rant over;)

Looks like summers have been pretty hot too. 7 of the top 15 (since 1879) have occurred on or after 2002, and 10 have occurred on or after 1991. All of them within a degree of the mythical dust bowl summer of 1936.

image.png.6e6f9f53dcceb9537b7389156826d6b2.png

Further, of the years with the most maximum temperatures at or above 80, 5 of the top 10 have occurred since 2007, and 7 of 10 since 1991.

image.png.7c8dd71734582d840c8ee630614fd0a0.png

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50 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Sweet GFS 12z has a foot of snow for the Dayton area Monday night into Tuesday morning! Also piles another 8 inches over the next two weeks! You know you can lock that in for S. Ohio :wacko2:

Seen that. No other model is showing anything for us 2 days out lol.

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Low pressure driving into W VA is usually a great track for snow in Ohio. If the current track holds it would be shocking not see a heavy snow band somewhere from central Ohio on north. Not sure why precip to the NW of the low seems so limited on the models.

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13 hours ago, HighTechEE said:

Sweet GFS 12z has a foot of snow for the Dayton area Monday night into Tuesday morning! Also piles another 8 inches over the next two weeks! You know you can lock that in for S. Ohio :wacko2:

00z GFS is more bullish.
sn10_acc-imp.us_ov.png

Unlike the 00z Euro and 06z NAM that are more South and a bit conservative
sn10_acc-imp.us_ov.png
sn10_acc-imp.us_ov.png

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2 hours ago, nwohweather said:


How there isn’t a thread for this storm is beyond me. Some serious snow on the models within 84 hours

I've been watching, but the bust potential in the negative is bigger than the bust potential in the positive.    

1. temps.... looks like this is a nocturnal-driven frozen event.   I'm not even sure the temps are ever supposed to get below freezing before, during, after.

2. The stripe of good cement is pretty narrow and will most likely be a nowcast event.

3. the recent winters and non-events have cemented my skepticism on anything to do with snow.

other than that I'm fully on board!!!! :P

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35 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I've been watching, but the bust potential in the negative is bigger than the bust potential in the positive.    

1. temps.... looks like this is a nocturnal-driven frozen event.   I'm not even sure the temps are ever supposed to get below freezing before, during, after.

2. The stripe of good cement is pretty narrow and will most likely be a nowcast event.

3. the recent winters and non-events have cemented my skepticism on anything to do with snow.

other than that I'm fully on board!!!! :P

If I had to guess what's going to happen, whoever gets into that band is going to get some incredible snowfall, but the ratios will be bad. We've had that multiple times the last few years, absolutely blinding snowfall that's gonna make travel treacherous but it will be like 5-1 ratio.

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4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Good ‘ole HM….lock it in! LMAO!

 

ha, I didn't know he was still around.    BTW, we've just lost the euro....gonna go south.    So all we got is the GFS showing anything.   So if that ends up being the solution, the canadian will be the first prize winner on handling this storm, (it never wavered from showing us getting squat).  

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5 hours ago, buckeye said:

I've been watching, but the bust potential in the negative is bigger than the bust potential in the positive.    

1. temps.... looks like this is a nocturnal-driven frozen event.   I'm not even sure the temps are ever supposed to get below freezing before, during, after.

2. The stripe of good cement is pretty narrow and will most likely be a nowcast event.

3. the recent winters and non-events have cemented my skepticism on anything to do with snow.

other than that I'm fully on board!!!! :P

Well the 18z runs just sh*t in all of our cereal. ALL south now. What's the ensembles look like?

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7 hours ago, buckeye said:

Although we, (ohio), have had no real snow this winter, we still have our dignity.   A 4 page thread for 2 glorified car-toppers and a week of seasonably cold weather is both proportionate and reasonable.  

Well done!  

Nearly 3 winters, sadly. Ohio, for whatever reason, is dead for snow. 

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