buckeye Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 So we couldn't buy a sub 980 low tracking through our sub the last several winters.....now the 18z gfs has TWO sub 980 lows not only tracking through the region but taking an almost identical track 72 hrs apart. ok I guess anything is possible and the most believable part of it is that CMH is on the warm side of both. Actually I still think the weekend storm isn't set in stone yet.... but I've been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 10 minutes ago, buckeye said: So we couldn't buy a sub 980 low tracking through our sub the last several winters.....now the 18z gfs has TWO sub 980 lows not only tracking through the region but taking an almost identical track 72 hrs apart. ok I guess anything is possible and the most believable part of it is that CMH is on the warm side of both. Actually I still think the weekend storm isn't set in stone yet.... but I've been wrong before. Sure hope we’re not being set up for a disappointing snow to the north, then snow to the south (the one after this wknd) of us scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 51 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Sure hope we’re not being set up for a disappointing snow to the north, then snow to the south (the one after this wknd) of us scenario. We live in Ohio...we know how this will go. Two back to back slobberknockers go NW of us.....we stay warm and rain. Then, the the third either goes too far southeast,,or, just goes poof and it gets cold over backside snow showers. How we've seen this movie many times before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 11 hours ago, buckeye said: So we couldn't buy a sub 980 low tracking through our sub the last several winters.....now the 18z gfs has TWO sub 980 lows not only tracking through the region but taking an almost identical track 72 hrs apart. ok I guess anything is possible and the most believable part of it is that CMH is on the warm side of both. Actually I still think the weekend storm isn't set in stone yet.... but I've been wrong before. If this bombs out like the 00Z GFS showed it will certainly be way west of Central OH. We need a weak sauce solution for good snows here with this one ... unless the "bomb" produces a mighty backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, vespasian70 said: If this bombs out like the 00Z GFS showed it will certainly be way west of Central OH. We need a weak sauce solution for good snows here with this one ... unless the "bomb" produces a mighty backend snow. It seems likely this one misses just NW and isn't strong enough to give us any backend snow. Then the follow up wave early next week gets suppressed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Holding out hope out here near Toledo. I really like what the GFS is showing last couple runs. Euro probably too strong with the low. Will be interesting to see the 12z EPS. I was surprised to see the Euro double down at 12z. This winter has been pretty boring so far, but I am at least thankful to be tracking again. It's so hard to get the right track with enough cold air in place. At least the lake effect should be great on the backend of the storm for those in the snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I just hope southeast Michigan gets missed. After cheating their way to a natty, they don't deserve any snowfall this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, Gino27 said: It seems likely this one misses just NW and isn't strong enough to give us any backend snow. Then the follow up wave early next week gets suppressed... Not strong enough? It's sub 980. NAM has it at 969mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 57 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Not strong enough? It's sub 980. NAM has it at 969mb Even a sub 980 storm positioned just north of us will not have dynamics or moisture to support good snow around our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I noticed my local NWS forecasts in the short-term are being slowly lowered. Snow totals dropped from an inch or two down to less than a half inch. Wind gusts dropped from up to 50 mph to up to 35 mph. We're actually in a bit of a dry slot now from heavy rain. I'm skeptical of any huge event, especially in the notorious mild El Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So we couldn't buy a sub 980 low tracking through our sub the last several winters.....now the 18z gfs has TWO sub 980 lows not only tracking through the region but taking an almost identical track 72 hrs apart. ok I guess anything is possible and the most believable part of it is that CMH is on the warm side of both. Actually I still think the weekend storm isn't set in stone yet.... but I've been wrong before.Your cooked and I'm here for all of itSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Even up here in Toledo things suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Days on end of teens single digits below 0 and dry Storm for 7 hours? 42 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 hours ago, Ji said: Your cooked and I'm here for all of it Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I remember my days in Central Ohio and whenever Ji entered the thread it was either something major about to happen or the WTOD was heading for Columbus. Glad to see you still lurk here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 hours ago, Ji said: Your cooked and I'm here for all of it Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It's incredible, the second one might go ever further NW! BTW, I admire you guys, we're only on page 2 of our winter thread while you guys have about 350 pages in medium to long range threads starting at the end of OCT. Almost every LR ensemble, and euro weekly that comes out has been analyzed as 'drool worthy'. How's that been working out for ya? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Stuck a fork in Saturday, she's done. The only time when the models give this much consensus is when it's gonna screw Central Ohio lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Stuck a fork in Saturday, she's done. The only time when the models give this much consensus is when it's gonna screw Central Ohio lol. yep. I have a feeling this coming 'cold shot', (which isn't anything other than a typical severe cold shot we get every winter), will be all she wrote. I'm not buying the rock'n FEB bs. This is why I've slowly de-coupled myself from the winter wx aspect of this hobby the last few years. Sure, I still love severe wx events, but I'm thinking of changing to a new hobby, one that has a better chance of scoring than a central Ohio snowstorm. Gonna join the local Big Foot spotters club. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, buckeye said: yep. I have a feeling this coming 'cold shot', (which isn't anything other than a typical severe cold shot we get every winter), will be all she wrote. I'm not buying the rock'n FEB bs. This is why I've slowly de-coupled myself from the winter wx aspect of this hobby the last few years. Sure, I still love severe wx events, but I'm thinking of changing to a new hobby, one that has a better chance of scoring than a central Ohio snowstorm. Gonna join the local Big Foot spotters club. I kinda agree. Ohio is basically dead mans land for snow storms. I don't wanna sound like my grandparents, but I seem to remember more storms when I was a kid(turned 40 today). I've been coming on here since like 03-04 when i was 20, and in that span I can think of 2 actual memorable storms. Idk what's happened, but el nino, la nina it doesn't matter, they both screw us here. I'll keep an eye in hops of a se shift, but I'm about 1% confidence we'll see a system over 3" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The sad thing here is we haven't had even an inch yet and we are approaching mid January. And after the dry cold spell...I am expecting warm and wet again. Maybe we set a record with a winter without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: yep. I have a feeling this coming 'cold shot', (which isn't anything other than a typical severe cold shot we get every winter), will be all she wrote. I'm not buying the rock'n FEB bs. This is why I've slowly de-coupled myself from the winter wx aspect of this hobby the last few years. Sure, I still love severe wx events, but I'm thinking of changing to a new hobby, one that has a better chance of scoring than a central Ohio snowstorm. Gonna join the local Big Foot spotters club. It just seems like each winter gets more futile than the last, but it also seems to all be bad luck. One storm goes east, the next to NW, and potentially one to the south feels like crappy luck instead of genuinely bad patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 hours ago, buckeye said: Gonna join the local Big Foot spotters club. That's more likely to pan out than a snowstorm in central Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 hours ago, vespasian70 said: That's more likely to pan out than a snowstorm in central Ohio. Yep. Winter is dead here. Idk if it's a climate shift or what, but there's gotta be a reason we rarely get any storms of 6" or more any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, dilly84 said: Yep. Winter is dead here. Idk if it's a climate shift or what, but there's gotta be a reason we rarely get any storms of 6" or more any longer. 6z GFS says wait a minute, and it may be the kiss of death, but it looks like Central OH might get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Well, see y'all next year. Barring a monster, I see no reason to continue logging on. Pretty sad when back to back monsters take the exact same path. At this point I'm rooting for a torch after this dry and cold garbage. I really couldn't care less about February/March snows. Even if they do amount to anything, they're melted within a day or 2. Best of luck the rest of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, dilly84 said: Well, see y'all next year. Barring a monster, I see no reason to continue logging on. Pretty sad when back to back monsters take the exact same path. At this point I'm rooting for a torch after this dry and cold garbage. I really couldn't care less about February/March snows. Even if they do amount to anything, they're melted within a day or 2. Best of luck the rest of the way. Atleast we will get the arctic temperature drop....before it warms up again and becomes a rainy four months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 33 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Atleast we will get the arctic temperature drop....before it warms up again and becomes a rainy four months. Hopefully it warms to 65-70 and rain then lol. At least the temps will be enjoyable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The turd coming in Friday morning wraps up so tight it almost wraps all the way back around to us. kicking the next system south cmon man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It's incredible, the second one might go ever further NW! BTW, I admire you guys, we're only on page 2 of our winter thread while you guys have about 350 pages in medium to long range threads starting at the end of OCT. Almost every LR ensemble, and euro weekly that comes out has been analyzed as 'drool worthy'. How's that been working out for ya? I am above average for this time of year for digital snow!Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 lol i have changed over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, CoachLB said: lol i have changed over to snow 34° and mix here. Never got into the 40s like supposed to. But still rain snow mix amounts to nothing but mud regardless lol. Edit: roads are actually slop covered(wet slippery snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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