Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!!

[Steve]

Here we go again…. Let’s hope winter doesn’t disappoint us this year!

[RogueWaves]

44 minutes ago, Steve said:

Here we go again…. Let’s hope winter doesn’t disappoint us this year!

Trivia. Quick - what's the last winter you were NOT disappointed?

[dilly84]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:31 PM, RogueWaves said:

Trivia. Quick - what's the last winter you were NOT disappointed?

Certainly hasn't been many memorable ones. 2010, 2014 only 2 decent ones that come to mind unless ya go back to 2008(March blizzard) or PD2

[mhou]

On 10/9/2023 at 6:46 PM, Steve said:

Here we go again…. Let’s hope winter doesn’t disappoint us this year!

By disappoint do you mean too much or too little snow lol

[nwohweather]

I'd like to be able to ice skate outside this year. I haven't been able to in years

[Frog Town]

The law of averages says it's a fool's errand to bet against most Winter forecasts(Warm & Dry) at this time, but the long term teleconnections are dangling a carrot.....and i'm a sucker for it.  

[iluvsnow]

Mark it down....the first happy hour digital snow storm of the season.....and we're off and running.......

[OHweather]

Probably won't stick more than some grassy coatings here and there, but it looks like most of the state will see their first flakes with a potent trough passage Tuesday evening. Maybe even the bursty convective stuff in a few spots. 

[pondo1000]

14 hours ago, OHweather said:

Probably won't stick more than some grassy coatings here and there, but it looks like most of the state will see their first flakes with a potent trough passage Tuesday evening. Maybe even the bursty convective stuff in a few spots. 

Hey there! Did you do any winter forecast yet? Would be very interested in your thoughts. Thx!

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Hey there! Did you do any winter forecast yet? Would be very interested in your thoughts. Thx!

I haven't put one out yet. I will try to over the next few weeks, or at the least post some medium-long range thoughts in the long range thread. Off the cuff, I've had some mixed feelings but unfortunately am leaning pessimistic for our region. Now, could it be somewhat better than last winter? Sure. But much more than that probably is asking a lot. It is looking increasingly likely that this winter will feature a strong, east-based or traditional El Nino. Water temperature anomalies are already near +1.5C in Nino region 3.4, and don't appear likely to start cooling anytime soon. And the warmest anomalies are closer to South America, making this a more traditional El Nino. This likely means the sub-tropical jet will be quite active and that Pacific air will frequently flood the continent, making it hard to build up true cold air over Canada. This will be an El Nino with a -QBO (easterly wind anomalies in the stratosphere), which is a good combination for possible disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex. That could lead to a -AO/-NAO trend later in winter. So, if we do see a period of blocking and the sub-tropical jet is active perhaps there's some potential for a larger system to produce snow out of the sub-tropical stream. However, I think the strong El Nino and lack of Arctic air will lead to fewer clippers than normal and generally less snow than normal, unless we get lucky with some sub-tropical jet help.

There has been a lot of talk that this isn't a winter to use strong El Nino climo for the winter outlook, and I understand some of the reservations as the pattern hasn't acted like a developing strong El Nino this summer. I think the lingering affects on the atmospheric circulation after 3 years of La Nina, aided by a strong -PDO, and the anomalous warmth of the Atlantic offset the atmospheric response to the developing El Nino...however, I believe we're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the borderline strong El Nino and strong positive Indian Ocean dipole. Tropical forcing is beginning to become more persistent over the western Indian Ocean and the Pacific. While perhaps the lingering oddities can lead to a random cold shot in later November or December if we briefly get some help from the MJO before the El Nino pattern truly locks in, I'm thinking this winter does act like an El Nino, leading to my overall pessimism. With that said, I've been wrong about these things for sure, and I'll try to look more in-depth over the coming weeks. 

[pondo1000]

On 10/30/2023 at 10:02 PM, OHweather said:

I haven't put one out yet. I will try to over the next few weeks, or at the least post some medium-long range thoughts in the long range thread. Off the cuff, I've had some mixed feelings but unfortunately am leaning pessimistic for our region. Now, could it be somewhat better than last winter? Sure. But much more than that probably is asking a lot. It is looking increasingly likely that this winter will feature a strong, east-based or traditional El Nino. Water temperature anomalies are already near +1.5C in Nino region 3.4, and don't appear likely to start cooling anytime soon. And the warmest anomalies are closer to South America, making this a more traditional El Nino. This likely means the sub-tropical jet will be quite active and that Pacific air will frequently flood the continent, making it hard to build up true cold air over Canada. This will be an El Nino with a -QBO (easterly wind anomalies in the stratosphere), which is a good combination for possible disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex. That could lead to a -AO/-NAO trend later in winter. So, if we do see a period of blocking and the sub-tropical jet is active perhaps there's some potential for a larger system to produce snow out of the sub-tropical stream. However, I think the strong El Nino and lack of Arctic air will lead to fewer clippers than normal and generally less snow than normal, unless we get lucky with some sub-tropical jet help.

There has been a lot of talk that this isn't a winter to use strong El Nino climo for the winter outlook, and I understand some of the reservations as the pattern hasn't acted like a developing strong El Nino this summer. I think the lingering affects on the atmospheric circulation after 3 years of La Nina, aided by a strong -PDO, and the anomalous warmth of the Atlantic offset the atmospheric response to the developing El Nino...however, I believe we're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the borderline strong El Nino and strong positive Indian Ocean dipole. Tropical forcing is beginning to become more persistent over the western Indian Ocean and the Pacific. While perhaps the lingering oddities can lead to a random cold shot in later November or December if we briefly get some help from the MJO before the El Nino pattern truly locks in, I'm thinking this winter does act like an El Nino, leading to my overall pessimism. With that said, I've been wrong about these things for sure, and I'll try to look more in-depth over the coming weeks. 

Appreciate your thoughts as always man!!

[buckeye]

Ready to Roast!

[WestMichigan]

We can always count on buckeye for a good meme or two throughout the year.  Here's hoping to a decent Central Ohio winter.

[Gino27]

NAM pretty much on it's own with a little clipper Tuesday morning. RGEM gives Ohio a little bit of snow to start 

[dilly84]

Ya mean no comments? We're about to take an inch and take it hard. 

[buckeye]

I can’t put my finger on it but there’s something very believable about this…

[bowtie`]

50 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I can’t put my finger on it but there’s something very believable about this…

The Buckeye effect?

[vespasian70]

Surprisingly picked up @ 2". I wasn't expecting that! 

[dilly84]

Potential storm brewing for next Sunday, surprised there's no talk in here about it. 

[pondo1000]

7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Potential storm brewing for next Sunday, surprised there's no talk in here about it. 

Probably b/c it’s been sooooo long & kind of believe it when I see it. More of a Saturday than Sunday though right?

[Gino27]

Already scared it away

[WHEATCENT]

i should remember not to look at models at 170~hours out since the gfs and euro looked great for 2-3 runs and i knew it was too early to be true and by 130 it would be crap 

 

[Gino27]

The previously unmodeled shortwave that’s coming onshore around 6z Friday is spoiling the show. Doesn’t let the low amplify leaving us in the dry

[HighTechEE]

Whoa! Jan 6th and I got 1/4 of a skiff of the 1st synaptic snow of the entire season (a skiff I think is a few flakes deep acording to how my dad viewed it)!!!  Also its been exactly 10 years since we've had a real winter here in S. Ohio! Maybe this is a hint...

[CoachLB]

getting close to half an inch

[iluvsnow]

Based on the synoptic set-up, after Tuesday's rainer.....we have opportunities for some dogs.....maybe even some big dogs if timing and wave placement works out the rest of the month. Someone will cash in. The Ohio Valley is due.

[Gino27]

30 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Based on the synoptic set-up, after Tuesday's rainer.....we have opportunities for some dogs.....maybe even some big dogs if timing and wave placement works out the rest of the month. Someone will cash in. The Ohio Valley is due.

Potential is surely there with PV love and active pattern. Hopefully we can all cash in

[HighTechEE]

  Damn the GFS eye candy has been impressive over the past week for the next 2 weeks!  https://pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010612&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ov&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs 

[Gino27]

Right now the shifts have been more to the NW of a lot of us. With two waves still being modeled beforehand, I imagine we will see a lot of shifting. With that being said we have all the ingredients for a big Ohio Valley storm

[buckeye]

6 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Right now the shifts have been more to the NW of a lot of us. With two waves still being modeled beforehand, I imagine we will see a lot of shifting. With that being said we have all the ingredients for a big Ohio Valley storm

GFS wants to take 3 storms almost the same path just over us or slightly west of us, doubt that happens.    I think the only sure bet is Tuesday is a rainer.   I'm not sold that the follow up storm for next weekend is nw of us.   Lots of spread on the ensembles with some pretty far southeast.     It's all about spacing and interaction with the northern stream....those won't be ironed out until the Tuesday storm plays out.     All that said, this is probably the best opportunity for sig snow coming up that we've seen in awhile even though it'll probably be tainted.