Snow Predictions

[Guest someguy]

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[Guest someguy]

you are going less than even the NAM?

good Luck Buddy....

DCA: 6 inches

BWI: 8.5 inches

IAD: 3.5 inches

(somewhat different from my informal calls in the other thread)

[Martin]

Will you marry me?

[aldie 22]

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Dave is that 6-8" between the purple and blue? Basically an IMBY or your old hood question.

[Coach McGuirk]

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Please make this happen.

[Ellinwood]

Might as well post it here...

DCA and MoCo:

25% chance of > 6"

65% chance of 3-6"

10% chance of < 3"

I'm pretty satisfied with a 3-6" call, and the fact that DC and MoCo are on that winter storm watch/warning line makes me happy as it kind of fits my forecast.

Good luck to everyone with their forecasts.

[VAwxman]

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Too far west with the 6" and 8" lines without a doubt. These storms always have a much sharper cutoff.

[CAPE]

Norfolk- 8"

Richmond- 7"

DC- 5"

BWI- 7"

Dover- 11"

Philly- 10"

ACY- 12"

NYC- 12"

Boston- 15"

General 1-4 inch snowfall west of DC to I-81.

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

Update after Euro..

ORF 12"

PHF 13"

RIC 9"

DCA 7"

Not bad I guess. What a storm! Anyone have official totals handy?

[Coach McGuirk]

Statement as of 08:10 PM EST on December 26, 2010

... Record daily maximum snowfall set at Norfolk VA...

... Note correction to the year of the heaviest snowfall on record...

A record snowfall of 13.4 inch(es) was set at Norfolk VA as of 7 PM

EST today. This breaks the old record of 5 inches set in 2004.

This makes the storm total snowfall so far at Norfolk 14.2 inches.

This is the third heaviest snowstorm on record for Norfolk. The

previous records were 18.6 inches December 27 and 28 in 1892 and

15.4 inches on Feb 17 through 19 in 1989.

This will be updated after the final snowfall with this event is

tallied.

[RIC Airport]

Best Case

ORF: 14.4"

PHF: 12.6"

RIC: 10.5"

DCA: 9.6"

IAD: 6.7"

Worst Case

ORF: 6.4"

PHF: 5.2"

RIC: 4.2"

DCA: 3.5"

IAD: 2.4"

good range

I nailed it almost down to the tee for ORF.

Went a littler at RIC, but with 6.6" recorded there, I guess it's not too bad. Big bust, however, for DCA/IAD.

[mattie g]

ORF: 5" plus some mixing

PHF: 7"

RIC: 7"

DCA: 2.5"

BWI: 6"

IAD: 1.5"

I honestly thought I was going with an absolute worst-case scenario at DCA and IAD...that it could not have possibly been worse than that call. Unbelievable screwjob for us DC-area folks. I was unsure about ORF, but figured I'd play it safe and assume they'd change over at some point. Yikes...bad, bad call. Looks like RIC was my only good call.

Congrats to those in the jackpot!

[Ellinwood]

DCA and MoCo:

25% chance of > 6"

65% chance of 3-6"

10% chance of < 3"

Looks like we hit the 10%

[Guest someguy]

Too far west with the 6" and 8" lines without a doubt. These storms always have a much sharper cutoff.

NO thats was BS and after the fact call.

the 18z Nam on saturday had a MUCH heavyer band of precip MUCH further west than 12z nam

the 15z sref was almost as wet as the 9z sref

[Guest someguy]

7PM?

event had kind of already started down here in va

Norfolk- 8"

Richmond- 7"

DC- 5"

BWI- 7"

Dover- 11"

Philly- 10"

ACY- 12"

NYC- 12"

Boston- 15"

General 1-4 inch snowfall west of DC to I-81.

[Ellinwood]

NO thats was BS and after the fact call.

the 18z Nam on saturday had a MUCH heavyer band of precip MUCH further west than 12z nam

the 15z sref was almost as wet as the 9z sref

7PM?

event had kind of already started down here in va

What exactly are you trying to prove with these replies?

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EDIT:

I am gone

Nevermind... guess I won't get a response

[SEVAsNOwSTORM]

What was the official total for ORF?

[stormitecture]

I think my post must have been deleted here as I called for "nada" but nothing shows up in the search terms. I wonder if my forecast was considered "weenie"

Dec.23:

@weatherwarrior1:

@WxDan I think this will be a typical scenario for the Mid-Atl. Storms possible, but won't pan out for us for one reason or another.

Dec.24:

@weatherwarrior1:

@scottmcpartland Kinda....I'm still going for nada to near nada for #DC. I certainly see other areas going for it more. You guys/NYC...?????

I can't believe that I was the only one that thought that we'd see nothing (or nearly nothing). Of course I didn't use the models at all. I did question myself, thought I was going to eat my words because EVERYONE kept hitting that DC would see something. Not being a seasoned forecaster (and not a very good model reader), I figured I was going to be wrong.

I will have to go back and read some to see what folks were saying why they thought the snow would come, and why some were saying up to 12". I just didn't see it with the stormtrack myself.