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NNE Cold Season Thread 2023/2024


bwt3650
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On 12/23/2023 at 2:01 AM, Boston Bulldog said:

For posterity's sake. Wow.

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Dr. Alicia Bentley's IVT graphics are top of the line in showing AR intensity.

 

This reminds me of why U-Wind Anomalies are so important.  Strong southerly flow is a moist torch… if that wind direction was more easterly (instead of S/SE), it advects moisture deeper into the cold pocket. As it happened, it was just a very robust S/SE jet streak rotating through…not transporting moisture into the cold sector. 

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As of mid-December, Bolton had already reported 100 inches of snow on the season, and with most of that falling from mid-November onward, it created a solidly snowy stretch. That period offered a ton of great skiing here in the Northern Greens, so the end of November into the first couple weeks of December was quite a whirlwind of trying to make time to get out for turns while also finishing up the busy fall semester period. It’s always best when the snowstorms keep rolling through, but when snowfall slowed down during the mid-month period, it was actually nice to be able to finally catch up with everything else in life that had been put on the back burner due to all the time spent out on the hill.

The family has been able to catch our breath the past couple of days after a busy period of holiday activities, and since I’ve been hearing about the nice soft conditions out there on the local slopes, my wife and I decided to head up to the mountain for some turns this afternoon. The snow report indicated that skier traffic was fairly light today, and I guess that makes sense – with no major snowstorms in the past week or so, there’s really no pressure to run out immediately and get after the fresh powder, so I assume a lot of folks have taken the same approach we have. We watched the Bolton Valley Base Area Webcam for a while today and could see that skier traffic was indeed fairly light.

We arrived at the mountain in the mid-afternoon period, and the top tiers of the parking lots were fairly full, but there were some open spots in the first lot due to folks who had already left. We often find that this ends up being the case around mid-afternoon because some people have left, and you’re still ahead of the bump in visitors that arrive as night skiing kicks off.

Skies were mostly cloudy with a few breaks of blue when we started our session, and the top of Vista Peak from about 2,800’ on up was hidden in the clouds. Temperatures were in the upper 30s F, and there wasn’t any wind in the lower elevations, so it was a very comfortable time for suiting up at the car. Even with temperatures in the just the 30s F, the snow was soft at all elevations because it’s been warm enough over the past couple days that the snow isn’t freezing up too thoroughly. You can find some firm patches out there in high traffic areas, but most of the snow is loose, pliable, and nicely carvable.

I was quite impressed with the number of trail options available from the Vista Summit. I remarked to my wife that compared to when I was last up there on the 12th after one of our larger storms, there are actually a lot more options now. Back at mid-month, many routes were closed due to snowmaking and ski patrol marking obstacles, but with the colder temperatures following that storm, the resort was able to finish up their snowmaking and open up those routes. So while natural snow trails like Vermont 200 that were open at the point are closed because the coverage isn’t quite there, steep favorites like Spillway and Hard Luck are now available with deep coverage thanks to snowmaking. Alta Vista was also open, and I don’t think that’s been open yet on any of the days I’ve been up on Vista.

We heard a lot of foreign accents around the base area and out on the slopes today, so it seems like Bolton has a good number of international visitors for the holiday week. Indeed skier traffic was fairly light, but lively enough, so the folks who are visiting are getting quite a good mix of soft snow, comfortable temperatures, winter holiday vibes, and elbow room on the slopes. This is a blackout period for folks who have restricted season’s passes, so that’s probably helping to reduce holiday week skier numbers a bit as well.

With the late December daylight period, the night skiing lights were already coming on by about 3:00 P.M. or so, and as we were leaving a bit after 4:00 P.M., low clouds rolled into the base area dramatically, just as I noticed a dense fog advisory on my phone. The fog moving in with the night skiing lights definitely pumped up the solstice vibe at that point.

Tomorrow might be the last day to catch this soft snow, because it sounds like snow and colder temperatures are in the forecast starting tomorrow night. With that shift we’re going to need to get enough fresh snow down to get back to soft skiing, but at least the dividends of all those early season winter storms are still present in the form of the snowpack in the higher elevations. It won’t take too much new snow to get a lot of natural snow terrain back in action, so we look forward to Mother Nature helping out soon.

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Town getting smoked while mountain gets nothing.

3-5” along the Mountain Road from standing wave but as soon as you go up in elevation towards the ski area it disappears.

The tourists are going to go bonkers.  Like how the hell do you explain mountain topography where there’s 5” at Edson Hill and RT 108 intersection but half an inch at the base of the mountain.

I had 3” and still snowing at home when I left.

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35 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Town getting smoked while mountain gets nothing.

3-5” along the Mountain Road from standing wave but as soon as you go up in elevation towards the ski area it disappears.

The tourists are going to go bonkers.  Like how the hell do you explain mountain topography where there’s 5” at Edson Hill and RT 108 intersection but half an inch at the base of the mountain.

I had 3” and still snowing at home when I left.

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Nice. Nothing here besides a few stray flurries. 22° feels brutal after the stretch we’ve been through.

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3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Nice. Nothing here besides a few stray flurries. 22° feels brutal after the stretch we’ve been through.

I've only seen these standing waves over town from Mansfield a few times, but this one has gone for like 8 hours of 1/2" per hour snow.

It's super weird... and it's not just high ratio snow.  It's kind of wet.  Also, other parts of Stowe have had just a dusting like Nebraska Valley.  This is literally just on RT 108/Mountain Road.  Tourists/visitors are going to be confused as hell... waking up to 3-5" of paste at all the lodging properties along the road... only to find it didn't really snow at the mountain.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've only seen these standing waves over town from Mansfield a few times, but this one has gone for like 8 hours of 1/2" per hour snow.

It's super weird... and it's not just high ratio snow.  It's kind of wet.  Also, other parts of Stowe have had just a dusting like Nebraska Valley.  This is literally just on RT 108/Mountain Road.  Tourists/visitors are going to be confused as hell... waking up to 3-5" of paste at all the lodging properties along the road... only to find it didn't really snow at the mountain.

Lol. Wake up, look out the window and get all psyched up just to get bitterly disappointed when you finally get to the mountain. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I've only seen these standing waves over town from Mansfield a few times, but this one has gone for like 8 hours of 1/2" per hour snow.

It's super weird... and it's not just high ratio snow.  It's kind of wet.  Also, other parts of Stowe have had just a dusting like Nebraska Valley.  This is literally just on RT 108/Mountain Road.  Tourists/visitors are going to be confused as hell... waking up to 3-5" of paste at all the lodging properties along the road... only to find it didn't really snow at the mountain.

That’s bizarre. But it’s what makes mountain weather so cool

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I've only seen these standing waves over town from Mansfield a few times, but this one has gone for like 8 hours of 1/2" per hour snow.

It's super weird... and it's not just high ratio snow.  It's kind of wet.  Also, other parts of Stowe have had just a dusting like Nebraska Valley.  This is literally just on RT 108/Mountain Road.  Tourists/visitors are going to be confused as hell... waking up to 3-5" of paste at all the lodging properties along the road... only to find it didn't really snow at the mountain.

FreeIng rain up top 6 inches at 1500 ft. Wow

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1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:


The flurries are become steady flurries here. I think we’ve squeezed out a total of 3/4” in the last two days. 6” would be like a whole new mountain here.
 

Barely snowing at the hill.  If you are familiar with Mountain Road... it's from Matterhorn downhill into town.

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I saw ice on top on a video?

Oh yeah there was some freezing mist and drizzle.  Last night my car was coating in like two-tenths of ice.  I didn’t notice a ton of it today.

But just super weird localized event.  And it wasn’t like fake fluff.  It was dense cake.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

...super weird localized event.  And it wasn’t like fake fluff.  It was dense cake.

Thanks so much for these updates PF – if you’re not out and about in the right areas, or happen to catch wind of this from someone telling you, one could easily be totally oblivious to this. I bet even around here locally in the Northern Greens, most people aren’t aware of this snow. Bolton is reporting 3 inches of new snow in the past 48 hours, but that’s been a more gradual accumulation and not this concentrated snowfall. As you mentioned, the mountains aren’t really getting this, so it’s not going to show up in the snow reports.

I heard about the snow in Stowe from your posts, but it turns out there’s a similar event going on in Waterbury as well. We were shopping at the Waterbury Shaw’s, and we suddenly realized that there were a couple inches of fresh snow on the ground. Some cars in the parking lot had substantial amounts of snow on them as well – we saw one car from New Jersey that had 6 to 8 inches of snow on its roof, so we figured it must have come from the Stowe area.

It was snowing some nice flakes when we came back out of Shaw’s, and the snow is so localized that as soon as you cross over I-89 heading into the village of Waterbury… there’s nothing. It looked like the Waterbury Shaw’s/Colbyville area was toward the southern end of that streamer, so I was curious to see what Mother Nature had in store when I headed north toward the Waterbury Lake Champlain Chocolates to get some lattes. I could see that the radar was showing a streamer in that area. It was snowing north of Colbyville at that point, and it looks like the greatest accumulations thus far are just a bit north of the Waterbury Ben and Jerry’s with about 3 to 4 inches on most surfaces. There’s a good covering of at least a couple inches all the way past the Cabot Creamery Store/Lake Champlain Chocolates area, and then once you get to Cold Hollow Cider Mill, accumulations simply drop down to nothing. So like your reporting from the Stowe area, accumulations around here in Waterbury are quite localized.

Indeed we’ve had these sort of mountain wave events before as you mentioned – I think last time when I was looking at the radar, the Stowe band seemed to be off Mansfield, and the Waterbury one was off Bolton Mountain. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was similar this time - very cool stuff.

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2 hours ago, alex said:

We got 3”… doesn’t seem that far fetched that Loon could have gotten 4

Hum,  guess it could be.  On the Waterville Valley Cam it looks like they just got a heavy dusting and that is over the ridge.  I'm glad you guys at least have a snowcover.  Totally 100% bare here.  Not even plow piles.  Maybe the next storm will not be supressed south.  Happy NY to you and the family

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s going to be 8” at some parts of RT 108 in Stowe and 1” a mile or two north/south of it :lol:.  

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We had an event like that in 2007, I think. Winter started out crappy but we got the MLK storm that laid down some decent snow/sleet. Then between MLK and V-Day we got some freak lake effect streamer that dumped like 10” in a narrow area that was right over my area. If you went north or south totals started dropping off quickly. A week or two later we got the big one and the rest of that winter and 2008 rocked. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There’s going to be 8” at some parts of RT 108 in Stowe and 1” a mile or two north/south of it :lol:.  

I had to drive to Spruce Peak tonight for the NYE event and its hard to believe it till you see it. Brown all through some typical snowy spots in Hyde Park and Morrisville, an inch or two as you come into town, and then the jackpot partway up 108. Beautiful snow too, clinging to everything and fluttering down all night.  Just in time so all the holiday crowds can see what they missed before they head home.

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23 minutes ago, Froude said:

I had to drive to Spruce Peak tonight for the NYE event and its hard to believe it till you see it. Brown all through some typical snowy spots in Hyde Park and Morrisville, an inch or two as you come into town, and then the jackpot partway up 108. Beautiful snow too, clinging to everything and fluttering down all night.  Just in time so all the holiday crowds can see what they missed before they head home.

Couldn’t imagine a more picturesque snow.  It’s just stacked on every little twig.

For something 100% unexpected, it’s an interesting event.  Model probability had to be 1-5% of the seen snow amounts.

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

7.5” and coming down on mid-Mountain Road.  Not fluff… pasty stuff.  Theres some QPF in this.

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The BTV NWS did put out a special weather statement for the event (text below) to alert drivers passing through the area. The Waterbury band has shifted its angle and pushed south a bit, so we’re catching the edge of it at our site at the moment.

US National Weather Service Burlington VT 

[1 AM] Happy New Year! It's still snowing in Stowe and Waterbury, with reports of localized 6-8 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. If you are traveling in central VT tonight, be ready for changing conditions especially on Route 108/100 and I-89. : Vermont Agency of Transportation & Scott Braaten #vtwx

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

700 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

655 AM UPDATE...

…and of course, we have to talk about the snow that wouldn`t quit along portions of Route 108 in Stowe as well as Route 100/I-89 near Waterbury. It`s still snowing and according to reliable reports, over 6 inches to locally 8 inches have fallen in the past 24 hours. Just an incredible microscale overachiever with bare ground just a few miles away. So the main change to this forecast package have been to increase PoPs to likely/numerous shower coverage range. Given the quasistationary nature of the narrow band, expect locally an additional 1-2 inches of snow on top of what has already fallen. While not everyone will see winter driving conditions or snow, be prepared for changing conditions and stay alert if driving across central VT during the pre-dawn into early morning hours.

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1214 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024

 

VTZ006-008-017-011400-

Lamoille-Washington-Eastern Chittenden-

Including the cities of Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier, Waitsfield,

Richmond, and Underhill

1214 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024

 

...Localized persistent narrow band of snow impacting Central VT...

A localized persistent narrow band of snow has led to locally over 6 inches of accumulation over the last 24 hours along the Route 108 corridor in Stowe as well as portions of Route 100 and Interstate 89 near Waterbury, VT. Not everyone will see snow or experience winter driving conditions. However, if you are traveling in the area, be alert for changing conditions and give yourself extra time to reach your destination.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Please allow extra time if traveling.

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