powderfreak Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Bread and Butter memes? This will be more like grits on a biscuit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 I see that the BTV NWS maps have been updated now with some expansion of the Winter Storm Watches and adjustments to the Event Total Snowfall map. There’s also an extensive section of the area forecast discussion dedicated to the upcoming storm, and from the numbers they have there, it looks like totals would be topping out at around 2 feet for the event. That seems to correlate fairly well with the projected accumulations map, since they now have that extensive area of 12-18” shading along the spine, with a touch of 18-24” appearing in the Mansfield area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Hum, I starting to think of a birch bender tomorrow night. No watches or advisories for the Southern half of Grafton Co. but at least the clown maps showing a sneaky heavy hit especially at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Based solely on how this winter has unfolded, im unsure if I have enough elevation for accumulating snow. Half of the storms have been snow, and half have been white rain. The maps being posted continually show a jackpot in my area. But past storms that ended up being white rain, the initial maps showed a lot of snow. Guess i just have to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 MTN crusher. MRG snow forecast from Pete Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind. Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains. Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches ! Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 The Winter Storm Watch that was posted here in our area was converted to a Winter Storm Warning, and various Winter Weather Advisories have been added as well. On the Event Total Snowfall map, the area of 18-24” shading along the local Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s portion of the spine has expanded. Down here at our site, we’re in the 12-18” shading, and that does correlate well with our point forecast, but depending on the temperatures, that may not be quite representative of accumulations in the valley bottoms. Snowfall intensity will probably factor into accumulations here, but up at elevation, the potential is definitely there for a solid resurfacing of the slopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: The Winter Storm Watch that was posted here in our area was converted to a Winter Storm Warning, and various Winter Weather Advisories have been added as well. On the Event Total Snowfall map, the area of 18-24” shading along the local Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s portion of the spine has expanded. Down here at our site, we’re in the 12-18” shading, and that does correlate well with our point forecast, but depending on the temperatures, that may not be quite representative of accumulations in the valley bottoms. Snowfall intensity will probably factor into accumulations here, but up at elevation, the potential is definitely there for a solid resurfacing of the slopes. Days and days of upslope over a solid base. Epic stuff up high. Enjoy the snorkeling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: The Winter Storm Watch that was posted here in our area was converted to a Winter Storm Warning, and various Winter Weather Advisories have been added as well. On the Event Total Snowfall map, the area of 18-24” shading along the local Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s portion of the spine has expanded. Down here at our site, we’re in the 12-18” shading, and that does correlate well with our point forecast, but depending on the temperatures, that may not be quite representative of accumulations in the valley bottoms. Snowfall intensity will probably factor into accumulations here, but up at elevation, the potential is definitely there for a solid resurfacing of the slopes. The positive snow depth maps are the way to go here to visually see the valleys vs mtns. HRRR 10:1 showing 1.50”+ QPF as snow. But depth increase of only 5” tells me it’s full on glop at MVL and under 1,000ft. While the mountains stay 12-24” depth increase. 3KM NAM does the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: The positive snow depth maps are the way to go here to visually see the valleys vs mtns. HRRR 10:1 showing 1.50”+ QPF as snow. But depth increase of only 5” tells me it’s full on glop at MVL and under 1,000ft. While the mountains stay 12-24” depth increase. 3KM NAM does the same. Yeah, the positive snow depth maps are definitely helpful and provide some realism – I know you’ve been working to infuse those into storm discussions, and hopefully it helps temper some of the more unrealistic maps that get posted. Maps can be challenging to use for our site because we’re so tight to the spine (just about in line with it) that the resolution isn’t always there to differentiate this location from the surrounding higher elevations. The base of the Winooski Valley is only about 1/4 to 1/3 of a mile wide here, rising up to ~2,000’ pretty quickly, and then to the 3,000’ to 4,000’ range within a few miles, so resolution is important in differentiating the various elevations. Another factor is that being so tight to the spine can get this area in on a lot of the forced ascent, resulting in additional accumulations relative to its elevation. Typically what seems to work is to go into events with the assumption that the running forecast for this elevation from something like positive snow depth map is a good baseline, and then sometimes the orographics push accumulations above that level a bit if the setup is appropriate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Powderfreak, J.Spin- Appreciate the insightful comments on your local weather, microclimate. I try to apply them when considering my locale (admittedly not in this forum, but 'close") over in the 'Dacks- 3 miles or so from summit of Whiteface- at the very foot of its northern slopes...about 1800' in Franklin County. Your detail and knowledge is remarkable to a lurker like me... Much respect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 NWS just pulled the trigger on warnings for the Bretton Woods Area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Elevation elevation elevation, March it makes sense but it’s becoming a common theme all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Light snow has begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Light snow has begun. After a bleak stretch, just what the doctor ordered. Spine looks to get blasted with heavy wet then increasingly higher ratios in upslope portion of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Light snow has begun. Here too in East Montpelier. Expected at least a bit of rain before changeover, so promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said: Here too in East Montpelier. Expected at least a bit of rain before changeover, so promising. More than light here in Barre Town. This is the latest from BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Precipitation has just commenced - sleet with occasional shredded snowflake mixed in. Not sure if that bodes well for a decent storm here or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 55 minutes ago, mreaves said: More than light here in Barre Town. This is the latest from BTV. Zero chance Stowe Village gets 9” but I know it’s hard fine tuning the elevational gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 33.5F Light snow just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 34.3° and flipped to all snow pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 32.4F Light snow. Surfaces white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Zero chance Stowe Village gets 9” but I know it’s hard fine tuning the elevational gradients. Not sure man it’s pounding snow down to lake level here on Lake George Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1.4" very very low ratio, but some meatballs falling for now. Would assume more up high so far. My cam doesn't pick up night snow very well, anytime I can make out flakes I know they are pretty big..lol. #caughtonNestCam. https://video.nest.com/clip/9c7ef73758fe4d06ae1205c77e47ea35.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Accidents all over SVT right now, seeing a ton of social media posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 21 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Accidents all over SVT right now, seeing a ton of social media posts. Yea, roads were crap above 1000’ when I came home about an hour ago. Right now it’s a scalping sleet falling. I’m at 1250’ and looks like about an inch and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 32.1F Moderate plastering snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Zero chance Stowe Village gets 9” but I know it’s hard fine tuning the elevational gradients. Um this might be a bad take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Um this might be a bad take Maybe two-tenths so far? Why is it a bad take? Its an elevation event above 1K as expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Just now, powderfreak said: Maybe two-tenths so far? It’s an elevation event above 1K. I went out around 6:00. 1000’ seems to be about right. The valley here is about 800’ and it was white rain. Here at 1250’ we’ve gone back over to all snow after some sleet. 1.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: I went out around 6:00. 1000’ seems to be about right. The valley here is about 800’ and it was white rain. Here at 1250’ we’ve gone back over to all snow after some sleet. 1.5”. Yeah, not sure why it’s a bad take that the valley won’t get 9”. The data has been very stable in showing how this works out. Biggest gradient from 500-1500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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