NNE Cold Season Thread 2023/2024

[J.Spin]

I didn’t expect Saturday’s cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 30s F to do much in terms of softening up the snowpack, but with today’s forecast calling for temperatures in the 40s F, there seemed much more potential for softening the slopes. Temperatures looked optimal in the afternoon, so my wife and I headed up to Timberline at Bolton for some runs. The weather for our session started out with a mix of foggy and cloudy conditions, and even a light mist of rain, but that quickly dissipated and moved on to produce mostly sunny conditions by the end.

When I checked the snow report earlier today, I saw that some of the natural snow trails were closed down at the Timberline elevations, and that initially had me worried about the available coverage. When we got to the mountain though, coverage was actually much better than the trail report had led me to believe. Twice as Nice was indeed closed, but it wasn’t as if it was devoid of snow – there were bare spots on the back sides of some of the rolls that would have made the skiing challenging, so I can see why they had it closed. I though Spell Binder was going to be closed, but it wasn’t – they’d made snow on the steep headwall section at some point, so it had an incredible amount of snow. The lower parts of the trail that have not seen any snowmaking were under a sort of “soft” closure – they had signs suggesting it was closed, but no rope and most people were skiing it. From the Timberline Summit, Intro was open with wall-to-wall coverage, and they blew in so much snow in the gap above the Timberline Mid Station that the ledges aren’t even visible.

Conditions were definitely soft enough to get in some nice corn snow turns, but it wasn’t really warm enough to soften the snow too deep into the snowpack. We found that terrain that had not been touched by other skiers was the best, because you could peel away a couple inches of snow without encountering the firm subsurface too much. Areas that had seen higher traffic revealed more of the firm subsurface and resulted in louder turns that were much less spring-like.

It looks like the coming week will feature some warmer spring-like days in the first half, which should be enough to get the snow softened more than today. Later in the week, the weather cools a bit and becomes more unsettled with snow chances. There’s nothing in the modeling yet that indicates a slam dunk March storm with solid mountain snows, but some runs show the potential. We’d need a decent shot of liquid equivalent to get much of a resurfacing, but the base is ready if we do get enough, and the more that falls as snow, the more terrain that would be in play for quality turns.

[tamarack]

A non-cold comment on the cold season thread - 
We had 3 days, Dec 6-8, with temps 10°+ BN.  In the 85 days since then there's been exactly one - Jan 19 - and 30 days of 10°+ AN.

[powderfreak]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:42 AM, tamarack said:

A non-cold comment on the cold season thread - 
We had 3 days, Dec 6-8, with temps 10°+ BN.  In the 85 days since then there's been exactly one - Jan 19 - and 30 days of 10°+ AN.

To me the biggest surprise from this winter has been that we are lucky to have had a fairly consistent snowpack (until the past couple days) this winter considering the departures.  I think the winter has been better than the departures would make one think.  I know that sounds like trying to find something to be happy about during this winter, but we've had at least some winter weather and snow on the ground for many in NNE. 

It has been a poor winter but this could have been an absolute record dumpster fire if someone just lays this out to you:

Local departures at MVL ASOS:

November... -0.2

December... +7.8

January... +8.1 

February... +8.4

That is wild.

First five days of March are averaging +12 to +13F at BTV, MPV, MVL, 1V4 (the main climo sites) too.

That string of departures Dec/Jan/Feb could have led to a much worse winter IMO.  But I don't have any stats to back that up, ha.

[sankaty]

My sense is the largest share of the AN temp departures have been driven by AN lows (but still below freezing) and a lack of arctic outbreaks. It's been just cold enough to snow and retain cover much of the winter in NNE (unlike most of SNE).

Last winter was kinda similar. I've been splitting my time between CT and the Killington area the past few winters, and the VT time has soothed the winter loving soul. If I had been only in CT the past couple of seasons, I'd be losing my mind.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

To me the biggest surprise from this winter has been that we are lucky to have had a fairly consistent snowpack (until the past couple days) this winter considering the departures.  I think the winter has been better than the departures would make one think.  I know that sounds like trying to find something to be happy about during this winter, but we've had at least some winter weather and snow on the ground for many in NNE. 

It has been a poor winter but this could have been an absolute record dumpster fire if someone just lays this out to you:

Local departures at MVL ASOS:

November... -0.2

December... +7.8

January... +8.1 

February... +8.4

That is wild.

First five days of March are averaging +12 to +13F at BTV, MPV, MVL, 1V4 (the main climo sites) too.

That string of departures Dec/Jan/Feb could have led to a much worse winter IMO.  But I don't have any stats to back that up, ha.

Temps thru 3/5
Season      22-23   23-24
NOV           +3.6      -2.4
DEC           +4.8      +4.9
JAN            +9.0      +4.5   Mildest of 26 Januarys
FEB            +1.2       +6.4
MAR 1-5    +4.3     +10.2

Snow         87.1"     55.8"
SN since 2/1
                  32.6"     3.7"
Pack 3/5     32"       6"

[#NoPoles]

Quite the rapid melt down where I live. Ground is thawing and snow is down to a few patches in my yard. Rivers are filling. Dirt roads are a disaster right now. DOT has had to come out twice and fix the dirt road I live on. They have also put up the load limit signs that go up during mud season. Spring definitely arrived early. I'm not complaining. And I know there will still be snow. But this is definitely not winter anymore. We are definitely in spring now.

[dryslot]

Going to be some very early ice outs on lakes and ponds here, Probably many records will fall for the earliest ice outs.

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to be some very early ice outs on lakes and ponds here, Probably many records will fall for the earliest ice outs.

Yeah ponds are going out down here. Winni is a lock for a record early ice out, aside from the couple of times it never iced in. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Yeah ponds are going out down here. Winni is a lock for a record early ice out, aside from the couple of times it never iced in. 

Lake Auburn up here was 03/23/10 the earliest ice out date, Its going to be gone within the next 10 days i believe, It never froze over until the end of Jan, Its quite black right now.

[dryslot]

When talking to many ice fisherman this year, I've been told that ice thickness on all lakes and ponds looked to be 50% of normal.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

When talking to many ice fisherman this year, I've been told that ice thickness on all lakes and ponds looked to be 50% of normal.

About 12" on Flying Pond, usually 18-20" by early March and >2 feet in colder winters.  About 20 years ago I encountered 32" on North Pond (Belgrades) - had to chop away some of the surface ice to get clearance for the crook in my hand auger.  Drove thru Belgrade Village today, and the visible part of Long Pond is about half open.

[J.Spin]

With the latest updates, it doesn’t look like the BTV NWS is seeing much snow potential on the back side of our current system, but they are starting to talk a bit more about the potential from the weekend system now that it’s getting a bit closer. Accumulations of 12-18” are already mentioned in the forecast discussion for the Saturday night through Monday night period – and some of the modeling has that snow continuing right into Wednesday. On top of that, the GFS has been showing more snow potential, with storms stacked up right through the end of its run. The farther out one goes, the more the storms are subject to change of course, but there is some ensemble support for another snowy stretch coming up.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 411 PM EST Wednesday...No major changes made to the forecast for the weekend into early next week as the 12Z medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance did not significantly shift from previous runs.

After a tranquil Saturday morning under exiting high pressure, a digging upper trough over the Great Lakes looks to phase with southern stream energy ejecting out of the TN/OH Valleys. A primary surface low develops over the Ohio Valley and tracks northeast through the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday night, while secondary low pressure develops along the southern New England coast early Sunday morning, eventually becoming the primary low Sunday afternoon while bombing to around 980 mb along the Maine Coast. In contrast to the 00Z guidance, latest guidance supports the secondary low becoming the primary a bit sooner, with less of a mid-level dry slot noted, which will help to filter colder temps back into the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening before a transition to more terrain-focused precipitation Sunday night through Monday and potentially Monday night.

Overall, thermal profiles continue to support snow being very elevationally dependent with elevations below 2000 feet mainly rain through Sunday, ending with a light accumulation of snow Sunday night into Monday. Across the higher elevations though, snow remains the dominant ptype, very wet and heavy Saturday night through Sunday night, before decreasing in density on Monday. A first guess at storm total snowfall would support a winter weather advisory Sunday night through Monday across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens for 3-6" of snow, while elevations above 2000 feet could see accumulations of 12-18" from Saturday night through Monday night.

[dmcginvt]

And this thinking has changed with far less numbers explicitly.     

heavy precip rates wl help to cool the column just enough to support
the wet snowfall. Initial thoughts in terms of snowfall
accumulations for first part have changed very little, with a
dusting to a slushy inch or two valleys below 1000 feet, 2 to 8
inches midslopes, and 8 to 10 inches summits by midday morning
Sunday. It should be noted, adjusting the hrly temp by just a single
degree has significantly more or less snowfall acrs our region. Snow
ratios wl be low in the 4 to 8 to 1 range, and be highly dependent
upon elevation and snowfall rate, given marginal bl temps. The
potential for isolated to possibly scattered power outages is
increasing for Sat night into Sunday.

 

Tough to tell whats going to happen.  I see no doubt there's a good chance of upper elevation snow.  Yeah for them!  Probably cant fix the best trails but will improve skiing.  I think the models still show that upper mtn strong lower mtn rain or meh

[dmcginvt]

Its a great afd

 

[dmcginvt]

I think 18z gfs says mush less snow

[dmcginvt]

I said mush, but it fits

 

[DavisStraight]

Looks good for PF and Central Maine and NH.

[mreaves]

I don’t want the 6” that’s depicted there for me. 

[powderfreak]

The positive snow depth maps will be much better in this one and it looks like a repeat of some of the early season snows that pounded the elevations, while white rain and 4:1 slop falls under 1KFT here in town.

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The positive snow depth maps will be much better in this one and it looks like a repeat of some of the early season snows that pounded the elevations, while white rain and 4:1 slop falls under 1KFT here in town.

Ugh. 

[bwt3650]

The positive snow depth maps will be much better in this one and it looks like a repeat of some of the early season snows that pounded the elevations, while white rain and 4:1 slop falls under 1KFT here in town.

It will go a long way right now. The backside looks promising. But it looks like the same cycle midweek, warm up, rain, and hope for something positive on the back end next weekend. Mon/tues might be good. This year has featured some pretty impressive wipe outs like Christmas week and this past week. Just decimated the base.


.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

It will go a long way right now. The backside looks promising. But it looks like the same cycle midweek, warm up, rain, and hope for something positive on the back end next weekend. Mon/tues might be good. This year has featured some pretty impressive wipe outs like Christmas week and this past week. Just decimated the base.
.

It’s definitely been a “you should’ve been here yesterday” type of season.  There have been some good cycles of high-end powder skiing, but also just these impressive melt-outs where it feels hard to stop the bleeding.

Overall the culprit is the warmth; eventually those departures do win out.  You can’t run near record warmth for a winter season on the whole, and expect to not succumb to it.  I tried to trick myself a few times when the snow was good (a few fun periods), but in the end those warm departures will rule the day.

[borderwx]

NNE,

“Ski it while you can”

21F this morning, missed the sound of the earth gurgling this morning walking the dog


.

[gonegalt]

9 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks good for PF and Central Maine and NH.

Don't forget NENNE.

[powderfreak]

Not going to lie, I like what I'm seeing for the elevations.  This could go fairly big (12"+ above 2,000ft).  Some of these model runs have 2"+ total QPF so it it holds snow at the elevations it's going to dump.

[sankaty]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, I like what I'm seeing for the elevations.  This could go fairly big (12"+ above 2,000ft).  Some of these model runs have 2"+ total QPF so it it holds snow at the elevations it's going to dump.

The transition from dense frontside snow to fluffier upslope could be perfect for resurfacing. As a Pico skier, also liking how far down the spine the upslope seems to go. I have a good feeling about this.

[sankaty]

I don't usually put much stock in the 3K NAM, but it's a thing of beauty for the mountains

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not going to lie, I like what I'm seeing for the elevations.  This could go fairly big (12"+ above 2,000ft).  Some of these model runs have 2"+ total QPF so it it holds snow at the elevations it's going to dump.

Thanks for posting some of the latest QPF output – I was going to bring it up if you hadn’t, since indeed there’s plenty of it there for a resurfacing if it’s all snow. The graphical forecast output at elevation in the Mansfield area looks fine with respect to temperatures from Saturday night through Monday night:

This morning’s BTV NWS forecast discussion doesn’t have any outrageous totals, but their current thinking for the higher elevations is 1-4” on the front end and 6-12” on the back end. I’m sure they’ll tweak those numbers and the maps as the event gets closer, but the spine currently has 8-12” shading through 8:00 A.M. Monday morning.

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 341 AM EST Friday...Where cold enough in eastern Vermont and the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks, snow should be the dominant p-type, and may be briefly moderate to heavy, which will be needed for accumulations likely around 1 to 4 inches above 2000 feet and less than 1 inch below 1000 feet. Progressing into Sunday afternoon and evening, the coastal development should be taking over and shifting east, but with the dry slot shifting overhead. It should be later Sunday night that wrap around moisture begins a period of snow showers into Monday. Dynamical cooling with the upper low position should result in all snow, even if temperatures are around 35. The amount of wrap around moisture and deformation owing to the upper low should result in fairly substantial orographic snow, with northwest slopes receiving an additional 3 to 6", while the rest of the area could see another 1 to 3" with an added 6 to 12" on the summits (highest northern Greens).

[J.Spin]

45 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I’m sure they’ll tweak those numbers and the maps as the event gets closer...

I was just notified that we’ve been put under a Winter Storm Watch, so we’ll see what the BTV NWS is thinking when their afternoon updates come out.

[CoastalWx]

Bread and Butter memes?