borderwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Saw a few trucks with full sap tanks today, guess the first run in February is a thing now50F in town when the sun popped out today. Buddy in Morgan had a thunderstorm. Be nice to get back to winterish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 35 minutes ago, borderwx said: Saw a few trucks with full sap tanks today, guess the first run in February is a thing now 50F in town when the sun popped out today. Buddy in Morgan had a thunderstorm. Be nice to get back to winterish Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 +12 to start the first 10 days of February. This winter has been incredible for positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 9:50 PM, powderfreak said: Summertime hail storms and localized downpours today. Lightning and thunder in the the 15-20 mile radius. Just another February day. The weather and cloud cover was so much like a summer cold front day. Torrential precipitation while the sky was breaking blue… convective. Ski on ball bearings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Im curious this next week actually shows some snow in the places that get snow. Do you see it? Or is it no real. "Im high as a kite right now thanks to legal weed. But I think we have some upslope coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Spitting a little bit of snow. The models came north! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/10/2024 at 9:53 PM, powderfreak said: +12 to start the first 10 days of February. This winter has been incredible for positive departures. 11.6 AN here. Jan 23 on, +10.8 with minima +14.2; not bad for 3 weeks in midwinter. It's snowed about 1 hour in the past 2 weeks, the flurry on 2/1. (The catpaws in Saturday's TS don't count.) Pack hanging in at 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A little bit of a refresher. Would like more but will take what we can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Somehow the Mt picked up a few inches of dense snow last night. Dog and I were shocked to walk in blowing snow this morning. Skiing was better, 6” would fix all that, so fingers crossed.Starting to appreciate the longer sunlight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This afternoon I received a text that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with the upcoming clipper system, and the latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast comes in around 5” to 8” of snow accumulation through Friday night, which generally lines up with the Event Total Snowfall map having us in the darkest blue 4-6” shading, but fairly proximal to the yellow 6-8” shading. Checking the point forecasts in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine just to our north, I’m seeing projected accumulations through that period top out in the 4-10”/5-11” range, which is where they’ve put that concentration of yellow shading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, J.Spin said: This afternoon I received a text that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with the upcoming clipper system, and the latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast comes in around 5” to 8” of snow accumulation through Friday night, which generally lines up with the Event Total Snowfall map having us in the darkest blue 4-6” shading, but fairly proximal to the yellow 6-8” shading. Checking the point forecasts in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine just to our north, I’m seeing projected accumulations through that period top out in the 4-10”/5-11” range, which is where they’ve put that concentration of yellow shading. I wonder why I don't get those text alerts? Anyway, nice to see a slight uptick and the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, mreaves said: I wonder why I don't get those text alerts? Anyway, nice to see a slight uptick and the advisory. Hmm, not sure on the alerts – they do come in the same text stream as all my Washington County VT-511 traffic alerts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: This afternoon I received a text that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with the upcoming clipper system, and the latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast comes in around 5” to 8” of snow accumulation through Friday night, which generally lines up with the Event Total Snowfall map having us in the darkest blue 4-6” shading, but fairly proximal to the yellow 6-8” shading. Checking the point forecasts in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine just to our north, I’m seeing projected accumulations through that period top out in the 4-10”/5-11” range, which is where they’ve put that concentration of yellow shading. I didn't want to mention anything after the upslope fail 2 weeks ago, but yes, should be a nice refresher so desperately needed right now...and it looks to stay snowy throughout the weekend with another refresh toward Monday. The 3-5 today is blown all over the place, but that, combined with 6-10 by Saturday and maybe another 3-6 late weekend and early next week would go a long way right now. This is the bread and butter set up over the next 7 days we need to get back into the game. I'd have to think losing about 10 days worth of accumulation in peak snow climo has put us significantly behind average now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, bwt3650 said: I didn't want to mention anything after the upslope fail 2 weeks ago, but yes, should be a nice refresher so desperately needed right now...and it looks to stay snowy throughout the weekend with another refresh toward Monday. The 3-5 today is blown all over the place, but that, combined with 6-10 by Saturday and maybe another 3-6 late weekend and early next week would go a long way right now. This is the bread and butter set up over the next 7 days we need to get back into the game. I'd have to think losing about 10 days worth of accumulation in peak snow climo has put us significantly behind average now. Today was a fun day. Just the surprise of it actually snowing. A reporting morning for me, so to wake up to snow on the ground, having to clean the car off, then heading up to find the number folks are interested in at 5:30am… after like two weeks without a decent little snow, it felt like we finally got a win . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Pinnacle Sports and Ski Essentials create great content. Love the stoke, wasn’t great but was needed and put the fire back in the “Stowe Family.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, bwt3650 said: The 3-5 today is blown all over the place, but that, combined with 6-10 by Saturday and maybe another 3-6 late weekend and early next week would go a long way right now. This is the bread and butter set up over the next 7 days we need to get back into the game. I'd have to think losing about 10 days worth of accumulation in peak snow climo has put us significantly behind average now. The cumulative snowfall plot for our site (below) clearly shows the period of snowfall stagnation we just went through – we’d recovered right up to a very average pace with those early January storms, and held that pace for much of January. A flat stretch like we had obviously threw us behind. We’re ~66% of the way through the snowfall season as of today, and snowfall at our site is currently 82.3% of average (down from being at 96.7% of average snowfall pace as of the end of January). This recent slow stretch wasn’t as long as the December one though. Up at elevation above us, I see that Bolton is reporting 186” on the season as of this morning, and based on my calculations, they should be at about 206” if they were on average pace, so that would put them at 90.2% of average. They were a bit ahead of the game due to some of those large, elevation-dependent storms, so that’s kept them closer to average. If we get into a bread and butter pattern like the modeling shows though, we could certainly make up a bit of ground. We really haven’t been in that bread and butter clipper pattern much this season. We made up for it somewhat with those larger systems, but those maintenance snows are part of the climate up here that really makes a difference. One potential benefit going forward is that Great Lakes moisture is somewhat more in play than it normally would be at this time of year because they haven’t cooled off as much with the mild weather. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I saw that the BTV NWS updated their maps this morning, so the new ones are pasted below. On the Event Total Snowfall map, a notable update is the appearance of the 8-12” orange shading along the spine. The point forecast for our site is in the 6-10” range through the day tomorrow, and that seems consistent with the map, which goes through midday Friday. More snow is expected into Friday night though, and with a quick look at the series of impulses coming through, I wouldn’t be surprised if the mountain areas along the spine of the Northern Greens didn’t see too many breaks in the showery regime right through Monday. Even in the valley, the graphic panels from our point forecast suggest snow chances throughout the period: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Yeah I like 3-6” for the mountain through noon tomorrow, then another 2-4” into Sat AM. Say 5-10” by 7am SAT. Can apply that to all local mountains. I’m a little skeptical of 8”+ by 1pm tomorrow but when am I not? If ratios are 25:1 it’ll get there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: I saw that the BTV NWS updated their maps this morning, so the new ones are pasted below. On the Event Total Snowfall map, a notable update is the appearance of the 8-12” orange shading along the spine. The point forecast for our site is in the 6-10” range through the day tomorrow, and that seems consistent with the map, which goes through midday Friday. More snow is expected into Friday night though, and with a quick look at the series of impulses coming through, I wouldn’t be surprised if the mountain areas along the spine of the Northern Greens didn’t see too many breaks in the showery regime right through Monday. Even in the valley, the graphic panels from our point forecast suggest snow chances throughout the period: I wish I picked this weekend to go up north, snow should be flying in the air the whole weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I like 3-6” for the mountain through noon tomorrow, then another 2-4” into Sat AM. Say 5-10” by 7am SAT. Can apply that to all local mountains. I’m a little skeptical of 8”+ by 1pm tomorrow but when am I not? If ratios are 25:1 it’ll get there. very reasonable...I think it will be a wintery feel throughout the holiday weekend with very few actual breaks in the snow at the mountain. Throw in another 3-6 Sunday into Monday, and President's day itself, when everyone is leaving might be a sneaky top ten day of the season. Midweek skiing next week should be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 59 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I like 3-6” for the mountain through noon tomorrow, then another 2-4” into Sat AM. Say 5-10” by 7am SAT. Can apply that to all local mountains. I’m a little skeptical of 8”+ by 1pm tomorrow but when am I not? If ratios are 25:1 it’ll get there. 18 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: very reasonable...I think it will be a wintery feel throughout the holiday weekend with very few actual breaks in the snow at the mountain. Throw in another 3-6 Sunday into Monday, and President's day itself, when everyone is leaving might be a sneaky top ten day of the season. Midweek skiing next week should be great. I think PF’s thoughts are quite reasonable as usual – the larger numbers can likely come about depending on how high the snow ratios are. I put some of the BTV NWS forecast discussion below – it looks like they are seeing some increased QPF values relative to earlier. I’m not sure which specific models they’re focusing on, but they do mention the extra moisture from the Great Lakes, which we wouldn’t always have as much of this time of year. The quality of the resurfacing for the slopes really depends on the amount of liquid equivalent anyway, so in that regard the actual snow amounts are really just for record keeping. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 911 AM EST Thursday... Mainly clear skies will prevail this morning before high clouds begin to stream in later today ahead of a quick, moisture- ridden clipper. With this update, moisture has increased across several model solutions, causing us to increase our QPF amounts. The low pressure clipper appears to draw some extra moisture from the Great Lakes, which remain virtually free of ice. With this QPF increase and expected snow ratios remaining relatively high, our snow totals have also increased, which spurred both an addition to the Winter Weather Advisory already in effect as well as an issuance of a Winter Storm Warning in southeastern St. Lawrence County. For the Winter Weather Advisory, we have added Essex, Caledonia, and Orange counties of Vermont with expected snowfall amounts of about 3 to 6 inches. The spine of the Greens could also score a large amount of snow with this system with up to 10 inches possible at highest peaks. One of the main concerns for this clipper will be the potential for high snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour in northern New York and gusty winds blowing snow around to reduce visibilities. Travel for the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes may be treacherous. The snow growth zone is looking well saturated for the duration of the event, and models indicate solid frontogenesis stretching across northern New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: I think PF’s thoughts are quite reasonable as usual – the larger numbers can likely come about depending on how high the snow ratios are. I put some of the BTV NWS forecast discussion below – it looks like they are seeing some increased QPF values relative to earlier. I’m not sure which specific models they’re focusing on, but they do mention the extra moisture from the Great Lakes, which we wouldn’t always have as much of this time of year. The quality of the resurfacing for the slopes really depends on the amount of liquid equivalent anyway, so in that regard the actual snow amounts are really just for record keeping. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 911 AM EST Thursday... Mainly clear skies will prevail this morning before high clouds begin to stream in later today ahead of a quick, moisture- ridden clipper. With this update, moisture has increased across several model solutions, causing us to increase our QPF amounts. The low pressure clipper appears to draw some extra moisture from the Great Lakes, which remain virtually free of ice. With this QPF increase and expected snow ratios remaining relatively high, our snow totals have also increased, which spurred both an addition to the Winter Weather Advisory already in effect as well as an issuance of a Winter Storm Warning in southeastern St. Lawrence County. For the Winter Weather Advisory, we have added Essex, Caledonia, and Orange counties of Vermont with expected snowfall amounts of about 3 to 6 inches. The spine of the Greens could also score a large amount of snow with this system with up to 10 inches possible at highest peaks. One of the main concerns for this clipper will be the potential for high snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour in northern New York and gusty winds blowing snow around to reduce visibilities. Travel for the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes may be treacherous. The snow growth zone is looking well saturated for the duration of the event, and models indicate solid frontogenesis stretching across northern New York. Yeah J.Spin, you know how it goes. The inches of snowfall don’t matter, the LE does when we have a boilerplate layer to bury and make more fun. 20” of 0.50” water is the same as 5” of 10:1 in terms of how it affects the surface conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 5 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah J.Spin, you know how it goes. The inches of snowfall don’t matter, the LE does when we have a boilerplate layer to bury and make more fun. 20” of 0.50” water is the same as 5” of 10:1 in terms of how it affects the surface conditions. Nam looks .5 to .75 by Monday; GFS .75 to 1. Maybe I'm more optimistic about surface conditions, but from what we've had, I think that would get the woods back in play. Skier traffic this weekend would be an issue thought too, so who knows how the trails wind up. Has that nice jay cloud look to it, but never bet against PF and Jspin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Dumping snow right now…bit of an over performer so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Dumping snow right now…bit of an over performer so far. . Yup I was wrong as usual, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Froude Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7” at home, seems to be a jackpot locally as everywhere I’ve been today has less. So nice to see winter back in the valley. Is it just me or did we used to get way more of these fluffy clippers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 57 minutes ago, Froude said: 7” at home, seems to be a jackpot locally as everywhere I’ve been today has less. So nice to see winter back in the valley. Is it just me or did we used to get way more of these fluffy clippers? Not sure what Waterbury had but it was more than the 2” I had at home. Maybe 4”? These type of set ups always disappoint me. I sit in my office in Waterbury and watch it snow most of the day and then head home looking forward to more snow just to see partly cloudy with scattered flurries and snow showers by the time I get to Barre Town. The thing is, intellectually I know that’s what happens but I always fool myself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Froude said: 7” at home, seems to be a jackpot locally as everywhere I’ve been today has less. So nice to see winter back in the valley. Is it just me or did we used to get way more of these fluffy clippers? Looks like around 5” here in Stowe down the Mtn Road. 7” is a great total for non-Mtn. Hill got a very nice shot of snow and it was still snowing steadily when I left at 5:30pm. One of the better powder mornings of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EMontpelierWhiteout Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Around 3” here in East Montpelier, the majority overnight. Snow was in the air all day but didn’t amount to much more. Mountains needed this boost heading into the Holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 40 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said: Around 3” here in East Montpelier, the majority overnight. Snow was in the air all day but didn’t amount to much more. Mountains needed this boost heading into the Holiday weekend. We came down to Hanover for the Dartmouth/Clarkson hockey game and there was a constant line of headlights heading north on 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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