NNE Cold Season Thread 2023/2024

[powderfreak]

TLDR - It's sort of comparing apples to oranges depending on the snow reporting method.  Old school ranges or single site snow cam or plots.  Ski Areas around the region are sort of a mixture of both methods.

[NoCORH4L]

Why do the Southern greens not get as much upslope? I mean that plateau in Woodford area is substantial. Even though it's lower elevation, it's wider than the northern spine which you think would wring out more moisture.

[tunafish]

Great post, PF.  

FWIW I asked TK about Jay as their 171" seasonal total on 1/16 sounded high.  So I asked him (online) if they have a set spot or not.  

"They have three set spots.  Not sure of exact details.  But I have been following along for decades and this year some of the estimates actually seemed a little low." 

[J.Spin]

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

TLDR - It's sort of comparing apples to oranges depending on the snow reporting method.  Old school ranges or single site snow cam or plots.  Ski Areas around the region are sort of a mixture of both methods.

The explanation makes perfect sense, and of course it’s coming from someone who is literally involved in the process. I didn’t know that Smugg’s had switched to the single site methodology, but now that you’ve confirmed that it clearly explains the change in their snowfall numbers.

From the perspective of skiers who are skiing all over the mountain at various elevations and aspects, it seems appropriate that you described it as “apples and oranges” vs. “right and wrong” or “good and bad”. A single site (hopefully an appropriately representative one) is probably more optimal for long-term record keeping and comparison, but it might be less representative in some storms vs. others than the range that was found when sampling various parts of the mountain.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, tunafish said:

Great post, PF.  

FWIW I asked TK about Jay as their 171" seasonal total on 1/16 sounded high.  So I asked him (online) if they have a set spot or not.  

"They have three set spots.  Not sure of exact details.  But I have been following along for decades and this year some of the estimates actually seemed a little low." 

I did ask a former marketer at Jay and he didn’t know of any spots, confirmed the sort of old school crowd sourced range method between grooming, patrol, skiing around.  I did that when I started here but it’s stressful, ha.  Easier to have something tell you what it is instead of hemming and hawing “how much do you think this seems like?”

TK thinks we are low even when I show him the actual measurement lol.  Was hanging with him last weekend, love skiing with that dude, the enthusiasm is hard to beat.

Which also plays into snowfall… skiers love snow, get excited, want to be stoked and I won’t lie, I bet 90% of skiers on a powder day would over-estimate snowfall.  “Dude, that was so deep, had to be a foot and a half.”  Plot shows 13”.  Ha.

Just like we’ve seen with weather weenies, sometimes excitement gets the best of everyone and I’ll admit, without seeing it on a stake I would estimate higher too.  It’s human nature.

A plot keeps me in check.  The number of text convos we sometimes have that are like, “man it seems like so much more snow.”  “No dude, we report what’s on High Rd.  It is what it is.”  The three of us gut check each other occasionally that way throughout the season.

Thats how estimates might be 12-18” in the old school style, but turns to 13” these days.  And you see the seasonal total drop over time.  And skiers think both are correct, because they are for the most part.  It’s just different ways of doing it.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The explanation makes perfect sense, and of course it’s coming from someone who is literally involved in the process. I didn’t know that Smugg’s had switched to the single site methodology, but now that you’ve confirmed that it clearly explains the change in their snowfall numbers.

From the perspective of skiers who are skiing all over the mountain at various elevations and aspects, it seems appropriate that you described it as “apples and oranges” vs. “right and wrong” or “good and bad”. A single site (hopefully an appropriately representative one) is probably more optimal for long-term record keeping and comparison, but it might be less representative in some storms vs. others than the range that was found when sampling various parts of the mountain.

Yeah I hope that came across as just apples to oranges, not good vs bad.

It’s just important to recognize when comparing both snowstorms and seasonal snowfall.  Is it a consistent spot in sort of the new version of snow reporting over the past decade or so… or is it the old school estimated range style.

Both can be or feel correct for any given storm but over time adding up the deepest snow on property will lead to a different total than the same patch of woods over a season.

That old school style is a part of northeastern ski culture too.  Out west has always been a one number one plot game for avalanche purposes, where East was always a “you can find between 8-12 inches out there” type of vibe.

I always found it more stressful to have to come up with estimates, I enjoy just showing people the readings and saying it is what it is, ha.

[powderfreak]

One other thing is that skiers and riders know their ski area over time and know what the number means.  This discussion came up on the lift this winter with someone who skis at one spot midweek and another on the weekends.

They told me we must be using a different ruler than a nearby hill because the same number on one report led to different skiing than that same number on another report.

But I countered that it’s just a different method and that she could already identify what each number means just by the conversation.  In her head, she already knew what the snowfall on each report meant, correlated to and how it would ski.  We discussed instead of comparing the numbers, just recognize what it means.

And that’s really what a Snow Report is for.  Be consistent however you want to do it, so people know what it “means.”

[tunafish]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I did ask a former marketer at Jay and he didn’t know of any spots, confirmed the sort of old school crowd sourced range method between grooming, patrol, skiing around.  I did that when I started here but it’s stressful, ha.  Easier to have something tell you what it is instead of hemming and hawing “how much do you think this seems like?”

TK thinks we are low even when I show him the actual measurement lol.  Was hanging with him last weekend, love skiing with that dude, the enthusiasm is hard to beat.

Which also plays into snowfall… skiers love snow, get excited, want to be stoked and I won’t lie, I bet 90% of skiers on a powder day would over-estimate snowfall.  “Dude, that was so deep, had to be a foot and a half.”  Plot shows 13”.  Ha.

Just like we’ve seen with weather weenies, sometimes excitement gets the best of everyone and I’ll admit, without seeing it on a stake I would estimate higher too.  It’s human nature.

A plot keeps me in check.  The number of text convos we sometimes have that are like, “man it seems like so much more snow.”  “No dude, we report what’s on High Rd.  It is what it is.”  The three of us gut check each other occasionally that way throughout the season.

Thats how estimates might be 12-18” in the old school style, but turns to 13” these days.  And you see the seasonal total drop over time.  And skiers think both are correct, because they are for the most part.  It’s just different ways of doing it.

Good stuff. Thanks.  I'm sure TK is a blast to ski with.

I've found its not just skiers who over estimate.  Neighbors and friends will ask how much snow we got, because they all know i do it for PWM.  I'll say 6" and every time it's "no way, that's at least 8 if not 10 inches".  I'm thinking...You all see me out here in the middle of the night like a madman, that's not just for fun - I take pride in the accuracy of my obs.

[J.Spin]

On 4/23/2024 at 1:34 PM, NoCORH4L said:

Why do the Southern greens not get as much upslope? I mean that plateau in Woodford area is substantial. Even though it's lower elevation, it's wider than the northern spine which you think would wring out more moisture.

In the NNE threads we’ve had a lot of discussions about upslope snowfall trends throughout NNE and surrounding areas in the past – it can be tough to find specific discussions with the search tool, but it might yield some results.

There’s definitely been plenty of conversation on why the upslope totals fall off as one heads southward along the Spine of the Greens, but an important one as I recall was that the Northern Greens have no mountain ranges to their northwest – it’s just relatively flat land where northwest winds suddenly encounter ~4,000’ of vertical relief. And, if you look at a topographic map, the Green Mountain Spine begins to turn in the northern part of the state such that it no longer has such a direct north to south alignment – it curves a bit to the northeast, setting the spine more perpendicular to northwest flow. Both the vertical relief and the perpendicular orientation are great for orographic lift. And, the Great Lakes help to keep more moisture in the atmosphere relatively to what would otherwise be present. As one heads southward along the spine, the orientation is more north-south, and there are more and more mountains/ranges upwind, so the northwest upslope isn’t as prolific. It’s funny, because just as I mentioned about all the large storm jackpots that seem come to the Southern Greens, I can recall many times where the flow off Lake Ontario heads right into that area, but it must not be as frequent or prolific enough to produce the same consistent results that it does in the Northern Greens.

On the plateau/width concept, I’ve always thought that height/vertical relief was the bigger factor in promoting orographic precipitation, but I really don’t know the relative contributions between the height and width factors of a mountain range for orographics. PF or some of the meteorologists on here might be able to reply if they have a sense for that.

[J.Spin]

On Thursday I had some time to get out for turns in the afternoon, so I can pass along a conditions update from Bolton Valley. Thursday was beautifully sunny, but it definitely had a chilly feel with dry air being blown into the area by northwest winds. Even in Burlington, temperatures were only topping out around 50 F, and it felt brisk walking around the UVM campus to the degree that I was wearing my coat and hat. With the combination of relatively cool temperatures and winds even in the valleys, I wasn’t sure how the snow conditions were going to be in the higher elevations; if the temperatures were still in the 30s F at elevation, along with those winds reducing the ability of the sun to warm the snow, conditions could end up too firm for good turns. When I checked the midafternoon temperature on the Bolton Valley website, I saw that it was at 41 F, and as far as I know that reading is from the main base at around 2,100’. That was far enough above the freezing mark that I decided to head up for a tour.

Ideally, I was hoping to tour down at Timberline, since the lower elevations and great western exposure to the afternoon sun down there give you the best chance of getting soft snow. We’re now at the end of April though, and I was skeptical about the amount of snow left down at Timberline. Those sunny afternoons and lower elevations are great for softening the snow, but they’re brutal on snow retention. On my way up to the mountain, I swung through the Timberline Base Area to take a peek at the snow, and low and behold, it looked like Showtime still held nearly continuous snow for turns. They must have really loaded up the snow on Showtime this year, and combined with a bit of natural snow bolstering from all those late-season storms, it’s definitely holding on longer than usual.

There is snow all the way down to the Timberline Base Lodge at 1,500’, but there are a couple of large enough breaks in the coverage that I hiked roughly the first couple hundred vertical feet. After that I was able to put my skins on and skin the rest of the way up to the Timberline Mid Station at around 2,250’. There are a couple of tiny breaks in the continuity of the snow up to that point, but it’s essentially continuous. There’s also more snow above that point up on Intro, but the Mid-station plateau area seemed like an efficient starting point for the descent.

The snow consistency was excellent – we’ve had lots of temperature cycling below and above freezing over the past week, so that corn snow has set up well. The combination of sun, temperatures, and a bit of breeze was perfect to keep a nice layer of peel away corn such that conditions were neither too hard nor too soft. I even saw a bit of winter snow left over from recent systems in shady areas up high that had been kicked around by a previous skier. That afternoon sun was bright – I had my darkest goggle lenses at 6% VLT, and they were a great fit for the intensity of late-April sun. It’s not too often that I use those lenses here in the Northern Greens with our penchant for snow and other active weather, but they fit the bill for this tour like they did on our sunny eclipse day earlier this month.

I don’t think those near continuous turns down at Timberline will last too much longer – especially if temperatures start to increase the way the forecasts are indicating. It was definitely a treat to still be able to get Timberline turns in at this point of the season though, since it adds some variety to the mix before moving on to other touring spots with more snow as we move on toward May.

[powderfreak]

66F off a low of 25F.

Went for a skin, Mansfield is still top to bottom on all snowmaking runs for the most part.

Chose Liftline and had some of the best, smoothest corn snow you’ll find in the East.  Four nights of freezing, and now sun and warmth.  Phenomenal sliding.

 

Now walking the still closed Notch road RT 100 with the dog… first snow patches on road show up around 1600ft but long stretches of bare pavement exist.  Pretty crazy how long it takes for the snow to melt on the east side. I heard west slope that gets afternoon sun is completely gone, even up high.

 

Classic NNE Saturday.

[mreaves]

49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

66F off a low of 25F.

Went for a skin, Mansfield is still top to bottom on all snowmaking runs for the most part.

Chose Liftline and had some of the best, smoothest corn snow you’ll find in the East.  Four nights of freezing, and now sun and warmth.  Phenomenal sliding.

 

Now walking the still closed Notch road RT 100 with the dog… first snow patches on road show up around 1600ft but long stretches of bare pavement exist.  Pretty crazy how long it takes for the snow to melt on the east side. I heard west slope that gets afternoon sun is completely gone, even up high.

 

Classic NNE Saturday.

It has been. I’m about to head out and play my first holes of the season. Hopefully I don’t twist or tear something. Lol. It sucks getting old!

[J.Spin]

Yesterday started out beautifully sunny in the morning, so once it warmed up enough, I decided to head out for a ski tour in the early afternoon before the heaviest clouds built in later in the day. Temperatures by that point were up into the 50s F, so there really weren’t any concerns about the snow being soft enough for quality turns.

Since I’d visited Bolton’s Timberline area on Thursday, I decided to mix it up and head to Stowe for this tour. I was hoping that the south-facing slopes of Spruce Peak were still holding enough snow to serve as relatively efficient touring terrain, and they were far better than just sufficient. Not only is the snow continuous all the way down to the MMSC parking lot level at 1,750’, it was even continuous all the way down to the Spruce Peak Village at 1,550’. Overall coverage in the area definitely seemed better than I typically see at the end of April, so some combination of the amount of snow made, our numerous late-season winter storm cycles, or our recent weather seems to have slowed melting in some of these lower elevation areas. The snowpack depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake is a bit above average for this point in the season, but it can be hard to correlate the state of the high and low elevation snowpacks with how disparate those environments are in the spring season.

Since snow coverage was plentiful and there was no need to hike, I was able to stay on my skins for the whole ascent. It was warm in the lowest elevations, enough that I was using some venting on my pants, but it was chilly enough up above 3,000’ around the Spruce Peak summit elevations that I closed the vents up and was fine putting on a shell. I saw a few other folks out for turns on the slopes of Spruce Peak, but there were fewer than a half dozen cars in the MMSC lot at any given time.

The quality of the ski surface was definitely good – the corn snow is in great shape since we’ve had repeated freeze-thaw cycles. Most of the surfaces weren’t that perfect, unblemished corn snow that you can sometimes get on Spruce Peak – there were some irregular areas of melting and sun cups in spots. The nuances of the snow surfaces really depend on the weather patterns though, and I’m sure it takes just the right combination of freeze-thaw, sun, precipitation, temperatures, etc. etc. to really create those perfect, unblemished expanses of spring snow. Skier traffic can have a bit of an effect on that, but when the snow isn’t perfect, a bit of skier traffic can actually create some of the best snow for skiing since it can wipe away most of the imperfections and dirty snow that sits atop the snowpack. Since the opportunity to ski all the way down to the base of Spruce Peak usually isn’t there, I continued my descent all the way down the to the Spruce Peak Village, then hiked back up via Inspiration and along the 12^th hole of the Spruce Peak Mountain Golf Course. It was nice to see things greening up in the valley – the disparity between the vegetation and coloring in the higher and lower elevations always makes for some interesting views this time of year.

[powderfreak]

RT 108 in Smugglers Notch probably has a bit of time left before it opens to the public.  This last bit of snow should go relatively fast, then they have some repair work to do from a variety of water damage during the many thaws this winter had.

My guess is the road opens between May 5 and May 10?  Closer to May 5?

Still some snow on the road and ground up there above 1,800ft and especially above 2,000ft where the road maxes out around 2,200ft.  Even evidence of ice falls and wet avalanches reaching the road elevation from up high.  Just an awesome topography zone and feels wild and western.  Hard to replicate in Vermont.

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

RT 108 in Smugglers Notch probably has a bit of time left before it opens to the public.  This last bit of snow should go relatively fast, then they have some repair work to do from a variety of water damage during the many thaws this winter had.

My guess is the road opens between May 5 and May 10?  Closer to May 5?

Still some snow on the road and ground up there above 1,800ft and especially above 2,000ft where the road maxes out around 2,200ft.  Even evidence of ice falls and wet avalanches reaching the road elevation from up high.  Just an awesome topography zone and feels wild and western.  Hard to replicate in Vermont.

It’s pretty unique in VT.  What are the other gaps/notches? Hazel’s Notch, Appalachian Gap, Lincoln Gap, Middlebury Gap and Brandon Gap are the ones I can think of and none of them are quite the same.
 

Oddly, the closest thing I can think of is a valley location, the Williamstown Gulf. The Second Branch of the White River cuts through the hills and Rt. 14 runs along side it. At its narrowest, there is barely enough room for the road and the river. The sides are really steep and there are cliffs. Rt.14 gets closed there once in awhile from ice/snow slides. The only picture I could find online is an old postcard that doesn’t really do it justice. 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

It’s pretty unique in VT.  What are the other gaps/notches? Hazel’s Notch, Appalachian Gap, Lincoln Gap, Middlebury Gap and Brandon Gap are the ones I can think of and none of them are quite the same.
 

Oddly, the closest thing I can think of is a valley location, the Williamstown Gulf. The Second Branch of the White River cuts through the hills and Rt. 14 runs along side it. At its narrowest, there is barely enough room for the road and the river. The sides are really steep and there are cliffs. Rt.14 gets closed there once in awhile from ice/snow slides. The only picture I could find online is an old postcard that doesn’t really do it justice. 

I've always wanted to see Hazen's Notch up north.  There's a bunch of cool roads around through the gaps.  Granville Gulf on RT 100 is a great drive too with cool topography, wetlands, river.

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've always wanted to see Hazen's Notch up north.  There's a bunch of cool roads around through the gaps.  Granville Gulf on RT 100 is a great drive too with cool topography, wetlands, river.

Oh yeah, I forgot about Granville. Hazen’s Notch is pretty but it’s not “spectacular”.  242 past Jay is “notchy” feeling. There is a gulf down near Ludlow and Chester that gets pretty tight. 

[powderfreak]

Snowpack at the picnic tables remains near normal with the long term average.  This season has been pretty normal on the whole for the snow department, snowfall and snowpack. Pretty crazy for Dec/Jan/Feb to average +8 and then a +6.3 March… even April is +2.5.  Statistically, to have these departures in the winter and still see normal snowfall, it’s a weird combo.

 
 

[Froude]

15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Snowpack at the picnic tables remains near normal with the long term average.  This season has been pretty normal on the whole for the snow department, snowfall and snowpack. Pretty crazy for Dec/Jan/Feb to average +8 and then a +6.3 March… even April is +2.5.  Statistically, to have these departures in the winter and still see normal snowfall, it’s a weird combo.

Yeah one look at that graph and you can tell it was a weird winter. Surprised to hear those +departures in March and April, it's felt like a cooler spring so far.  Guess when you get used to +8 then anything less feels normal.

[tamarack]

Very odd winter here:
99.0" snowfall, 10" AN, despite the mildest DJFM of 26 here.
40.9" post-equinox, most I've ever measured, including the 10 years at Fort Kent.  Greatest spring storm, 22.0" on 3/23-24.
3 storms of 12"+, tied for the most of any snow season.  Included 3rd biggest storm, also 3rd biggest April storm.
Only 1,177 SDDs, 67% of average with 111% snowfall.
"Retention metric", SDDs divided by snowfall, was 3rd lowest and by far the lowest for an AN snow total.
TS on Feb. 10 was by far the noisiest winter TS that I can recall.  (If there was a stronger one in NNJ, I've forgotten.)
The 4 "winter" months featured the wettest Dec and wettest March, also the driest Feb.

[mreaves]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Very odd winter here:
99.0" snowfall, 10" AN, despite the mildest DJFM of 26 here.
40.9" post-equinox, most I've ever measured, including the 10 years at Fort Kent.  Greatest spring storm, 22.0" on 3/23-24.
3 storms of 12"+, tied for the most of any snow season.  Included 3rd biggest storm, also 3rd biggest April storm.
Only 1,177 SDDs, 67% of average with 111% snowfall.
"Retention metric", SDDs divided by snowfall, was 3rd lowest and by far the lowest for an AN snow total.
TS on Feb. 10 was by far the noisiest winter TS that I can recall.  (If there was a stronger one in NNJ, I've forgotten.)
The 4 "winter" months featured the wettest Dec and wettest March, also the driest Feb.

Can you remind me how SDDs are calculated?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Can you remind me how SDDs are calculated?

A day with a 20" snowpack is 20 SDDs.  If January depth averages 10", that would be 310 SDDs - 31*10.

Current average SDDs here is 1,753.  It's ranged from 3,835 in 07-08, which had 65 days with 30"+ pack, down to a mere 577 in 05-06, which maxed out at 11" and had but 4 days with 10"+.

[tunafish]

Impressive stat for PWM's snow this winter:

Dec, Feb, Mar combined - 6.3"

Apr - 8.0"

38.0" on the season, or about 57% of average.

[uncletim]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:24 PM, mreaves said:

Oh yeah, I forgot about Granville. Hazen’s Notch is pretty but it’s not “spectacular”.  242 past Jay is “notchy” feeling. There is a gulf down near Ludlow and Chester that gets pretty tight. 

The one south of Ludlow I think is Proctorsville Gulf on 103.

Fun to check all these out on Streetview. Hazen's Notch road reminds me of Stratton/Arlington road in the south.

Smuggs story. First time I was there was over 25 years ago and we passed a small sign on the road that just said "Bingham Falls For Sale". Intrigued by the concept of a waterfall for sale, my buddy and I pulled over and walked down what was at that time a narrow path to the falls. A good way down the path we were blocked by, of all things, a pickup truck in the middle of the trail. It was clear that someone had driven down the trail, encountered a fallen log, and with no possibility of backing up just abandoned the truck. I often wondered how long the truck was there and how it was removed. It was surprising that it could have gotten as far as it did given how narrow the trail was and there no way it a commercial tow could get to it. Not too mention what possessed the driver to try in the first place...

[J.Spin]

The forecast suggested Saturday was going to be the better weather day of the weekend, so I decided to make use of it and get in a ski tour. My previous tour was at Stowe, so I headed back to check out Bolton’s snow for this one. Based on what I’d seen on my last Bolton tour I figured the lower elevations of Timberline would be mostly melted out by this point, but the views from Burlington showed that there was still plenty of snow at the main mountain.

Heading up the Bolton Valley Access Road, the first signs of snow were around the 1,400’ elevation mark, and there was still some snow left at the Timberline Base at 1,500’. On the whole though, there’s only patchy snow down on Timberline now, and it’s nothing that would be practical for turns. Up above 2,000’ at the main mountain there are still various areas of snow that offer up options for ski touring. On the lower mountain there are spots like Valley Road and Beech Seal that have continuous snow, and on the upper mountain there are numerous options with good coverage.

I didn’t even bring my skins for yesterday’s outing, since I figured there would be enough areas melted out for easy hiking, and skinning might require dealing with some substantial gaps in coverage anyway.  In the terrain off the Mid Mountain Chair, areas of continuous coverage start about 100 feet up from the base. I opted to hike up the Bear Run route, which has an access road, and I was able to travel on roughly 50% dry ground/50% snow. On the upper mountain, the hike was about 20% dry ground/80% snow using a combination of Sherman’s Pass and Schuss.

I hiked up to where continuous coverage ended, which was in the plateau area at the top of Cobrass/Preacher. From there, I skied Sherman’s Pass to Spillway, and there’s a small break in coverage near the top of Spillway, but below that it’s continuous snow down to Mid Mountain. The Mid Mountain area is mostly snow with a bit of bare ground, and then once you get past the first bit of Beech Seal you can ski down to where the snow ends about 100” above the base area.

Temperatures were probably in the 60s F, so the quality of the corn snow itself was fine, but there are a lot of areas of the snowpack that are sun-cupped, so the surface consistency isn’t great there. Stretches in the middle of Spillway and Beech Seal had smooth enough snow for nice turns thankfully, but there just hasn’t been that much skier traffic to help much with smoothing out areas beyond those. There will likely still be plenty of snow for turns in another week, but it won’t really be practical for an efficient tour; the snow coverage will get discontinuous enough that it won’t be great for a top-to-bottom descent without numerous gaps that require walking.