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NNE Cold Season Thread 2023/2024


bwt3650
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That was impressive last night. Blinding snow, 5” in 2 hours on Burke. Tipped over standing at one point, thought I was still going warp speed

Down to 10F now, still sideways snow. What a week to remember!

Heading Rangeley to check conditions this weekend. Should be decent.

Go Cats!
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3 hours ago, mreaves said:

Winter Storm Warnings up.  Pretty wide range the low end and high end potential. 3" - 18" where I live.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

image.thumb.png.4b08337f26d85b86f21b1fae598c28b1.png

 

I happened to have my phone near me last night and woke up at 3:23 A.M. to a text about the Winter Storm Watch. I wasn’t sure if this storm was going to warrant any substantial alerts up here, but looking at the models, I guess it could. I see they’ve put the watch up for all the counties in the state that are in the BTV NWS forecast area. The latest GFS run that just came in looks fairly decent for up here, so we’ll see where they go with the afternoon update.

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2 hours ago, dmcginvt said:

Yup, as expected after 12z guidance they have upped the snow significantly in the N.  

Yeah, as the BTV NWS typically does, they’ve generally bumped the accumulations up as their confidence in the forecast increases. That area of 12-18” shading in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s region of the spine has expanded substantially to include the spine of the Central and Northern Greens, and off into the NEK. They’ve kept the Winter Storm Watches in place for now, and their forecast discussion nicely lays out their thinking.

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wpc heavy snowfall disc

 

spreading snow across northern NYS into northern New England as
mid-level troughing digs into western NY/Lake Ontario and a
persistent band of FGEN translates eastward into the region. At the
same time, a system in the Southeast will start to lift
northeastward along the coast, bringing a surge of moisture
northward on strong 50-60kt winds at 850mb across Long Island.
Aloft, jet will start to buckle a bit and increase quite smartly to
over 150kts across Quebec, with much of northern New England in
the right entrance region of the jet. Surface high pressure will be
split to the north and east of the region, but a low pressure
track along and off the New England coast should maintain some
northeasterly cold air drainage into interior sections. This could
set up a narrow band of sleet and/or freezing rain in between snow
over interior locations and rain along the coast as mild SE flow
overrides the marginally sub-freezing interior locations. Snowfall
could be quite heavy at times, with HREF probs >1"/hr already
~60-80% early Saturday over northern NY/VT/NH, with snow continuing
eastward thereafter into Maine (beyond the 12Z HREF end time).
Snow ratios may be quite variable as the system evolves and may
also be dependent on time of day as well (esp with lower rates
outside the favored areas). Regardless, significant accumulations
are possible from the Adirondacks into the northern Green/White
Mountains and into northern Maine. There, WPC probabilities for at
least 12 inches of snow Sat-Sun are high (>70%). Lower amounts
around 4 inches are possible as far south as about I-90 across NY
and then turning northeastward across south central NH to coastal
Maine, especially west of I-95 in southern Maine.

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3 hours ago, klw said:

BTV has upped totals again, I am a bit too close to the mix line for comfort

The Winter Storm Watches were converted over to Winter Storm Warnings around here, which is of course a good sign that the pros at the BTV NWS are confident in several inches of snow. Indeed, the totals on the latest BTV NWS Event Total Snowfall map were bumped up, with that area of 12”-18” shading expanded substantially, and areas of the 18”-24” shading appearing along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens.

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8 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The Winter Storm Watches were converted over to Winter Storm Warnings around here, which is of course a good sign that the pros at the BTV NWS are confident in several inches of snow. Indeed, the totals on the latest BTV NWS Event Total Snowfall map were bumped up, with that area of 12”-18” shading expanded substantially, and areas of the 18”-24” shading appearing along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens.

22MAR24A.jpg.6693d1702f61ebf3fb2f552eb1bcb1e8.jpg

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Latest guidance looks like a Killington to Sugarbush special; but I'm sure everyone gets it good.  Ironically, it looks like the stake has just passed last year at this time, which was an impressive late season total.  This storm could push snowpack to some of the higher levels in the last 20 years for this time of year, with 2018 still standing out as a high point.

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well either way it's gonna snow.  I think I saw btv said warm nose doesnt look as bad anymore so I dont think we see pingers up north which I was worried about.  I've settled with expecting a foot but hoping for more simply because I want more.  Hrrr still likes further south for jp which is sad, nam and nam 3k pretty widespread crush

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33 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

well either way it's gonna snow.  I think I saw btv said warm nose doesnt look as bad anymore so I dont think we see pingers up north which I was worried about.  I've settled with expecting a foot but hoping for more simply because I want more.  Hrrr still likes further south for jp which is sad, nam and nam 3k pretty widespread crush

My forecast has been for 8-14”… I think it gets a bit warm tomorrow afternoon below 1500ft that may lead to some lower ratios.  The first part should be cold though.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

My forecast has been for 8-14”… I think it gets a bit warm tomorrow afternoon below 1500ft that may lead to some lower ratios.  The first part should be cold though.

There is no forecast I would take more seriously than yours.  Going back to ne.weather, you understand the microclimate of the area.  I remember when you were still in albany.  And for a non met you blew me away.  So we shall see.    

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Not S+ here either, but decent. Though the surprise 6 inches we got the other night, the rate was much more intense. Also far enough north that this snow is light and fluffy, and not heavy and wet. Very hopeful that there won't be many power outages up this way

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The system that just came through the area was Winter Storm Ronnie, and the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas is listed below. It looks like the storm totals peaked near Southern Vermont, but started to fall off approaching the Massachusetts state line where presumably some mixed precipitation came into play.

Jay Peak: 18”

Burke: 18”

Smuggler’s Notch: 13”

Stowe: 11”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 18”

Sugarbush: 17”

Middlebury: 18”

Pico: 24”

Killington: 24”

Okemo: 25”

Bromley: 30”

Magic Mountain: 30”

Stratton: 28”

Mount Snow: 16”

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17 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

The system that just came through the area was Winter Storm Ronnie, and the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas is listed below. It looks like the storm totals peaked near Southern Vermont, but started to fall off approaching the Massachusetts state line where presumably some mixed precipitation came into play.

Jay Peak: 18”

Burke: 18”

Smuggler’s Notch: 13”

Stowe: 20”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 18”

Sugarbush: 17”

Middlebury: 18”

Pico: 24”

Killington: 24”

Okemo: 25”

Bromley: 30”

Magic Mountain: 30”

Stratton: 28”

Mount Snow: 16”

We had 11”, not 20”.

Wait there’s no way Jay reported 18” is there?  They had 6-8” like early afternoon yesterday.

I’m sorry there just wasn’t much if any elevational difference in this storm.  Synoptic and mid-level lift.  Zero reason for wide ranges in ski areas reported snowfall.  The bases got about the same as the summits.

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