borderwx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 That was impressive last night. Blinding snow, 5” in 2 hours on Burke. Tipped over standing at one point, thought I was still going warp speedDown to 10F now, still sideways snow. What a week to remember!Heading Rangeley to check conditions this weekend. Should be decent.Go Cats!. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Well that was a surprise 5-6 inches The snowfall rate was intense for the first 1-2 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Winter Storm Warnings up. Pretty wide range the low end and high end potential. 3" - 18" where I live. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Stat padder week. 4.0", 1.8", 2.8" last 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, mreaves said: Winter Storm Warnings up. Pretty wide range the low end and high end potential. 3" - 18" where I live. I happened to have my phone near me last night and woke up at 3:23 A.M. to a text about the Winter Storm Watch. I wasn’t sure if this storm was going to warrant any substantial alerts up here, but looking at the models, I guess it could. I see they’ve put the watch up for all the counties in the state that are in the BTV NWS forecast area. The latest GFS run that just came in looks fairly decent for up here, so we’ll see where they go with the afternoon update. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Yup, as expected after 12z guidance they have upped the snow significantly in the N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Its a very quick thump if true. GFS Euro both nams show it, serious fgen wpc heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, dmcginvt said: Yup, as expected after 12z guidance they have upped the snow significantly in the N. Yeah, as the BTV NWS typically does, they’ve generally bumped the accumulations up as their confidence in the forecast increases. That area of 12-18” shading in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s region of the spine has expanded substantially to include the spine of the Central and Northern Greens, and off into the NEK. They’ve kept the Winter Storm Watches in place for now, and their forecast discussion nicely lays out their thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 wpc heavy snowfall disc spreading snow across northern NYS into northern New England as mid-level troughing digs into western NY/Lake Ontario and a persistent band of FGEN translates eastward into the region. At the same time, a system in the Southeast will start to lift northeastward along the coast, bringing a surge of moisture northward on strong 50-60kt winds at 850mb across Long Island. Aloft, jet will start to buckle a bit and increase quite smartly to over 150kts across Quebec, with much of northern New England in the right entrance region of the jet. Surface high pressure will be split to the north and east of the region, but a low pressure track along and off the New England coast should maintain some northeasterly cold air drainage into interior sections. This could set up a narrow band of sleet and/or freezing rain in between snow over interior locations and rain along the coast as mild SE flow overrides the marginally sub-freezing interior locations. Snowfall could be quite heavy at times, with HREF probs >1"/hr already ~60-80% early Saturday over northern NY/VT/NH, with snow continuing eastward thereafter into Maine (beyond the 12Z HREF end time). Snow ratios may be quite variable as the system evolves and may also be dependent on time of day as well (esp with lower rates outside the favored areas). Regardless, significant accumulations are possible from the Adirondacks into the northern Green/White Mountains and into northern Maine. There, WPC probabilities for at least 12 inches of snow Sat-Sun are high (>70%). Lower amounts around 4 inches are possible as far south as about I-90 across NY and then turning northeastward across south central NH to coastal Maine, especially west of I-95 in southern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Regardless, significant accumulationsare possible from the Adirondacks into the northern Green/WhiteMountains and into northern Maine. There, WPC probabilities for atleast 12 inches of snow Sat-Sun are high (>70%). EPIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 It would be interesting to see a correlation of snowfall at the Mansfield stake relative to temp departures. I bet this season would stand out as one of the snowiest with a strong positive departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 BTV has upped totals again, I am a bit too close to the mix line for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 3 hours ago, klw said: BTV has upped totals again, I am a bit too close to the mix line for comfort The Winter Storm Watches were converted over to Winter Storm Warnings around here, which is of course a good sign that the pros at the BTV NWS are confident in several inches of snow. Indeed, the totals on the latest BTV NWS Event Total Snowfall map were bumped up, with that area of 12”-18” shading expanded substantially, and areas of the 18”-24” shading appearing along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 8 minutes ago, J.Spin said: The Winter Storm Watches were converted over to Winter Storm Warnings around here, which is of course a good sign that the pros at the BTV NWS are confident in several inches of snow. Indeed, the totals on the latest BTV NWS Event Total Snowfall map were bumped up, with that area of 12”-18” shading expanded substantially, and areas of the 18”-24” shading appearing along the spine of the Central/Northern Greens. Latest guidance looks like a Killington to Sugarbush special; but I'm sure everyone gets it good. Ironically, it looks like the stake has just passed last year at this time, which was an impressive late season total. This storm could push snowpack to some of the higher levels in the last 20 years for this time of year, with 2018 still standing out as a high point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 well either way it's gonna snow. I think I saw btv said warm nose doesnt look as bad anymore so I dont think we see pingers up north which I was worried about. I've settled with expecting a foot but hoping for more simply because I want more. Hrrr still likes further south for jp which is sad, nam and nam 3k pretty widespread crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 33 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: well either way it's gonna snow. I think I saw btv said warm nose doesnt look as bad anymore so I dont think we see pingers up north which I was worried about. I've settled with expecting a foot but hoping for more simply because I want more. Hrrr still likes further south for jp which is sad, nam and nam 3k pretty widespread crush My forecast has been for 8-14”… I think it gets a bit warm tomorrow afternoon below 1500ft that may lead to some lower ratios. The first part should be cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 BTV has been pretty consistent with amounts in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 BTV has been pretty consistent with amounts in this area. Keeps ticking Brattleboro up... was 7.1 earlierSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: My forecast has been for 8-14”… I think it gets a bit warm tomorrow afternoon below 1500ft that may lead to some lower ratios. The first part should be cold though. There is no forecast I would take more seriously than yours. Going back to ne.weather, you understand the microclimate of the area. I remember when you were still in albany. And for a non met you blew me away. So we shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 cold and dry, the virga is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 6 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: cold and dry, the virga is real Snowing decently here. Dewpoint up to 16° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 20 minutes ago, mreaves said: Snowing decently here. Dewpoint up to 16° lol still nada in waterbury center....dp to 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Its now snowing S- temp down a degree to 19 and dp up to 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 temp down dp up, = snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 just took the dogs out, its S out there!!! Far short of SN + but def S, down to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Not S+ here either, but decent. Though the surprise 6 inches we got the other night, the rate was much more intense. Also far enough north that this snow is light and fluffy, and not heavy and wet. Very hopeful that there won't be many power outages up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Great winter stormSnow falling straight down by Rangeley Lake12” lakeside through the daySaddleback on a powder day is highly recommended, trail edges that were untouched knee deepStill snowing:)9” in Newport Center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 The system that just came through the area was Winter Storm Ronnie, and the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas is listed below. It looks like the storm totals peaked near Southern Vermont, but started to fall off approaching the Massachusetts state line where presumably some mixed precipitation came into play. Jay Peak: 18” Burke: 18” Smuggler’s Notch: 13” Stowe: 11” Bolton Valley: 16” Mad River Glen: 18” Sugarbush: 17” Middlebury: 18” Pico: 24” Killington: 24” Okemo: 25” Bromley: 30” Magic Mountain: 30” Stratton: 28” Mount Snow: 16” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 17 minutes ago, J.Spin said: The system that just came through the area was Winter Storm Ronnie, and the north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas is listed below. It looks like the storm totals peaked near Southern Vermont, but started to fall off approaching the Massachusetts state line where presumably some mixed precipitation came into play. Jay Peak: 18” Burke: 18” Smuggler’s Notch: 13” Stowe: 20” Bolton Valley: 16” Mad River Glen: 18” Sugarbush: 17” Middlebury: 18” Pico: 24” Killington: 24” Okemo: 25” Bromley: 30” Magic Mountain: 30” Stratton: 28” Mount Snow: 16” We had 11”, not 20”. Wait there’s no way Jay reported 18” is there? They had 6-8” like early afternoon yesterday. I’m sorry there just wasn’t much if any elevational difference in this storm. Synoptic and mid-level lift. Zero reason for wide ranges in ski areas reported snowfall. The bases got about the same as the summits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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