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NNE Cold Season Thread 2023/2024


bwt3650
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I had just topped out around 3,100’ on a backcountry ski tour this afternoon when I got a text indicating that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory. That was fun timing.  Anyway, I’m seeing roughly 4-8” or so in our point forecast through Tuesday night, and that seems to correspond fairly well with the yellow 6-8” shading there have here along the spine. The most recent BTV NWS maps are below.

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5 hours ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Some good model trends today throwing more moisture further NW.  With high snow to liquid ratios, I think we’ll see some yellow shading along the spine in subsequent updates. 

Indeed that yellow 6-8” shading is showing up as you suggested, so that’s good to see.

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The High Road Snow Plot at 3,000ft at Stowe has recorded 29” in the past 7 days.

The snow depth at the fabled Stake has responded accordingly.

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Another fluffy 3” this morning from overnight squalls.

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This site is one of the best snow measurement spots one could dream off.

Heres a photo from a few days ago, but when we talk about the High Road location, this is the measurement site. Just a nice opening on a bench in the terrain 3/4ths of the way up the hill to sample the “upper mountain”… the readings here truly match with the conditions on the hill.  It’s a great representation.  If you skied through the woods at 3,000ft, this is the depth of the new snow you would encounter.

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In this morning’s update, Bolton  was reporting an additional 3-5” of snow from yesterday’s lake-effect snow and snow squalls. The other recent snowfall numbers they had in their report looked solid, with 12” in the last two days, 27" since Tuesday night and more than 48” for the first half of the month. The season snowfall for the resort currently stands at 157”, and that’s very respectable since it’s already about half their annual snowfall average when we’re not even halfway through the snowfall season.  What makes that pace more impressive is that they’ve had all that snowfall despite the second half of December being quite lean on snow. That really speaks to how much has been falling up there during the snowier periods.

There was no new snow falling today, which was somewhat notable because this morning’s snow report also indicated that if the current forecast for tomorrow’s snow comes through, they’ll be looking at 14 out of the first 16 days of 2024 with snowfall. With today’s break in the falling snow, I figured it was time to head out for a tour on the backcountry network as a reliable route to untracked powder.

I decided to head up the Bryant Trail to Bryant Cabin in the afternoon, and play it by ear depending on how my supply of daylight was looking. I was well ahead of sunset, therefore I just continued on up to the Catamount Trail Glades so I could get in some turns in the higher elevations. Based on my recent outings at the resort, I knew that conditions improved a lot with elevation, so I wanted to get a good sampling of the powder up high. I topped out at an elevation of about 3,100’ on the back side of Bolton Mountain, descended through the Catamount Trail Glades, and then traversed back above Bryant Cabin and navigated a route through another half dozen different glades back to the base. Today definitely had a nice midwinter vibe, with bright afternoon sun, temperatures probably around 20 F, and great powder.

The surface powder and upper snowpack analysis was really interesting today. Starting my tour around 2,000’ in the Village, I found 4-5” of surface powder, and then there was a fairly solidified layer below it. That layer marks the wet snow that recently came from Winter Storm Gerri, which hardened up somewhat as temperatures dropped back below freezing. The surface snow above it is from the snow on the back side of the storm, plus the additional drier snows that have fallen over the past couple of days. As you ascend to higher elevations though, that hard layer gradually begins to soften, and then above 2,500’ it starts to disappear altogether. At that point there is another substantial subsurface layer, which I suspect comes from Winter Storm Finn. So, monitoring the elevation profile for the depths of the powder was bit unusual. Compared to the 2,000’ elevation, I didn’t detect any notable increase in the powder depths at 2,250’, but at 2,500’ it finally started to deeper, and as I continued higher, I could still sort of detect an interface from Winter Storm Gerri, but it eventually became hard to discern. So, what I’ve done for the surface snow depth elevation profile below is to indicate those different layers, with the first depth being snow down to the dense layer from Winter Storm Gerri, and the second being the depth of the snow down to the dense layer from Winter Storm Finn.

2,000’: 4-5”

2,250’: 4-5”

2,500’: 5-6”/8-10”

2,750’: 6-7”/10-12”

3,000’: 7-8”/14-16”

At some point between 2,500’ and 3,000’ that first depth number sort of becomes moot, and you’re essentially skiing in the 8-16” of powder depending on elevation, so go I’d say go in with that mentality. In terms of getting out there in the backcountry around this part of the Northern Greens, I’d recommend touring above 2,500’ if you can for the best turns. I went with mid-fats on today’s tour, but you could easily go with fat skis if you’re going to spend most of your time above 2,500’.  When I was up in the Catamount Trail Glades in the 3,000’ range, fat skis would have been nice, except in some of the denser areas of evergreens where they have trapped so much of the snowfall on their boughs, that you actually notice the deficiency of powder below.

The system that is expected to come into the area tomorrow is name Winter Storm Heather, and any snow from that should really be icing on the cake in terms of the ski conditions. Temperatures are forecast to stay cold, so you can pretty much take the powder depths I have above and then tack on whatever new snow comes next.

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It wasn’t even snowing this morning when my son and I headed off to Burlington for an early appointment, so we knew we’d be giving Mother Nature some time to get rolling and freshen up the slopes. The snow from Winter Storm Heather started up a couple hours later, and by midafternoon we decided to head up to Bolton for some turns.

We were happy to see that the Timberline Quad was running, so were able to park and start our session right there. Snow was simply pouring down at that point, and my initial measurements revealed storm totals of 4-5” at 2,500’ and 6-8” at 3,000’.

The snow was light and dry (my past couple of liquid analyses from down here in the valley averaged right around 4% H2O), so it was very high quality powder. With such cold smoke powder, you weren’t getting bottomless turns on steep terrain, but you could on low and moderate angle terrain, and the turns were great even if you were contacting the subsurface.

It was pounding 1-2”/hour snow the entire time we were on the mountain, so one could easily tack on another couple inches or so to the storm totals by closing time, and it even kept snowing into the evening.

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28 minutes ago, borderwx said:

Snowblower was happy about the cold snow:)

5” at the house, 9F, never went above 15F yesterday.

Hero powder skiing this morning, saw the sun waiting for patrol to finish their morning laps

Curious what the hills pull out of the sky tonight
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Jet and the terrain it accesses is some of the more underrated skiing in VT. Jay gets the love for the trees and it should but I’ve spent some very happy days just lapping that lift. 

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VERMONT

 

...Addison County...

  Bristol                 7.0   850 PM  1/16  Public

  4 ENE Starksboro        7.0   900 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Whiting                 6.0   749 PM  1/16  Public

  2 E Palmer Corner       6.0   840 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter

  1 NE South Lincoln      5.8   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  1 SE Cornwall           5.5   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  Vergennes               4.4   600 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

 

...Bennington County...

  Landgrove               8.2   535 AM  1/17  WeatherNet6

  1 WNW Mountain View     6.2   900 PM  1/16  Trained Spotter

  Sunderland              6.2   900 PM  1/16  Social Media

  West Arlington          6.0   402 AM  1/17  WeatherNet6

  3 ENE Manchester        5.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  5 NNE Stamford          4.6   900 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Readsboro               4.1   745 PM  1/16  Social Media

  W South Shaftsbury      4.0   720 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Caledonia County...

  Groton                 10.0   758 PM  1/16  Public

  1 ENE Ryegate           8.0   745 PM  1/16  Public

  2 WNW Wells River       7.2   649 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  East Burke              7.0   824 PM  1/16  Public

  North Kirby             7.0   810 AM  1/17  Public

  West Burke              7.0   951 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SW Sutton             6.6   915 PM  1/16  Co-Op Observer

  2 N Lyndonville         6.4   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 S Wheelock            6.4   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  N Danville              6.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 W Lyndonville         5.7   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  N St. Johnsbury         5.6   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  4 W Barnet              5.0   810 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  3 NNE Danville          4.6   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Chittenden County...

  Shelburne               8.0   939 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SW Hinesburg          6.5   825 PM  1/16  Public

  1 E Huntington          6.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  WSW Williston           6.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  St. George              5.9   854 PM  1/16  Public

  1 NNW Burlington        5.6   945 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  1 ENE Shelburne         5.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Underhill               5.5   743 PM  1/16  Public

  1 S Essex Center        5.5   832 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  1 S Shelburne           5.5  1200 AM  1/17  Public

  2 NW Westford           5.3   814 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  Colchester              5.0   800 PM  1/16  Public

  1 NE South Burlingto    5.0  1012 PM  1/16  NWS Office

  3 SSW South Burlingt    5.0   735 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Huntington Center       4.9   830 AM  1/17  Public

  3 SSW Williston         4.9   600 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 NNW Williston         4.5   600 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  2 E St. George          4.5   410 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  Stevensville            4.5   829 AM  1/17  Public

  1 E Jericho             4.5   700 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SW Milton             4.5  1050 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  1 E Nashville           4.4   645 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  N Winooski              4.3   729 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  5 NNE Underhill         4.3   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Malletts Bay            4.0   330 PM  1/16  Public

  1 N Colchester          3.5   400 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  1 ENE Essex Junction    3.4   359 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  4 NW Burlington         2.5   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Essex County...

  East Concord           10.8   823 PM  1/16  Public

  2 NNW Lunenburg         7.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  4 WNW Maidstone         6.4   810 AM  1/17  Public

  Island Pond             4.0   800 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

 

...Franklin County...

  Fletcher                7.0   905 PM  1/16  Public

  5 WNW Fairfax           4.2   900 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  St. Albans              3.2   810 AM  1/17  Public

  Enosburg Falls          3.0   449 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  3 N Enosburg Falls      2.6   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 NNE Swanton           2.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Grand Isle County...

  Alburgh Center          4.0   803 PM  1/16  Public

  South Hero              3.0   852 PM  1/16  Public

  2 NW Alburgh            1.5   943 PM  1/16  Public

 

...Lamoille County...

  2 SSW Eden              8.4   850 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter

  Morrisville             7.5   727 PM  1/16  Public

  Johnson                 6.0   939 PM  1/16  Public

  SW Stowe                5.9   730 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 N Johnson             5.5   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  Elmore                  5.5   744 PM  1/16  Public

  Jeffersonville          5.0   400 PM  1/16  Public

  3 N Smugglers Notch     4.8   730 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  1 SSW Jeffersonville    3.7   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Morristown              3.5   830 AM  1/17  Public

 

...Orange County...

  Orange                 10.0  1002 PM  1/16  Public

  Vershire                9.0   848 PM  1/16  Public

  Randolph                9.0   909 PM  1/16  Public

  Tunbridge               8.9   812 PM  1/16  Public

  2 NNW Bradford          8.8   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 E Corinth Corners     8.7   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  Topsham Four Corners    8.5   828 AM  1/17  Public

  Fairlee                 8.5   952 PM  1/16  Public

  Brookfield              8.0   940 PM  1/16  Public

  Williamstown            8.0   815 AM  1/17  Public

  East Orange             7.0   844 AM  1/17  Trained Spotter

  Newbury                 7.0   731 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SE Strafford          6.9   630 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  West Newbury            6.8   612 PM  1/16  Public

  3 SW Braintree          5.5   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Orleans County...

  4 NNE Greensboro        8.8   815 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  7 SE Morgan             8.5   745 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 NNW Greensboro        6.8   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Craftsbury Common       6.2   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Orleans                 6.0   917 PM  1/16  Public

  Westmore                6.0   752 PM  1/16  Public

  2 W Derby Line          5.3   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Albany                  5.3  1003 PM  1/16  Trained Spotter

  Derby Center            5.0   906 PM  1/16  Public

  Barton                  5.0   903 PM  1/16  Public

  Lowell                  5.0   745 PM  1/16  Public

  1 WNW Westfield         4.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Rutland County...

  West Rutland           11.0   938 PM  1/16  Public

  Ira                    10.0   808 PM  1/16  Public

  Shrewsbury             10.0   726 PM  1/16  Public

  Mendon                  8.0   725 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SSE Pittsford         8.0   630 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Pittsford               8.0   906 PM  1/16  Public

  Pawlet                  8.0   834 PM  1/16  Public

  2 W Benson              7.5   750 PM  1/16  Public

  Hydeville               7.0   723 PM  1/16  Public

  Brandon                 7.0   724 PM  1/16  Public

  Hubbardton              6.8   829 AM  1/17  Public

  1 N Rutland             6.2   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 N West Rutland        6.1   615 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 W Shrewsbury          6.0   530 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 SSE West Rutland      5.9   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  3 SSW Wallingford       5.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Washington County...

  4 ENE Cabot             8.5   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Fayston                 8.5   947 PM  1/16  Public

  1 SW East Barre         8.4   800 PM  1/16  NWS Employee

  3 NW Waterbury          8.1   600 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Northfield              8.0  1200 AM  1/17  1400 ft elevation

  North Fayston           8.0   953 PM  1/16  Public

  2 SW East Calais        7.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 W Worcester           7.3   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  1 NNW Woodbury          6.9   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  3 NNW Woodbury          6.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Montpelier              6.5   725 PM  1/16  Public

  3 E Warren              6.2   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 ESE Plainfield        6.2   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  2 N Northfield          6.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 N Waitsfield          5.9   921 AM  1/17  Public

  2 N Moretown            5.0   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Windham County...

  2 N East Dover          5.0   707 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 NNE Rockingham        4.6   600 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Brattleboro             4.0   730 PM  1/16  Social Media

  Athens                  3.8   715 PM  1/16  Social Media

  1 WNW Wilmington        3.0   547 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  6 W West Brattleboro    2.9   900 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  2 NNE Marlboro          2.9   800 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 S Brattleboro         2.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

 

...Windsor County...

  3 N Pomfret             9.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  Norwich                 8.2   802 PM  1/16  Public

  Bethel                  8.0  1013 PM  1/16  Public

  South Royalton          8.0   859 PM  1/16  Public

  1 NE Pomfret            7.5   937 PM  1/16  Public

  NE Rochester            5.9   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  1 NNE North Hartland    5.6   700 AM  1/17  Co-Op Observer

  Weathersfield           5.5   853 PM  1/16  Public

  NNE Proctorsville       5.5   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  3 S Ludlow              5.0   700 AM  1/17  CoCoRaHS

  2 S Perkinsville        4.0   700 AM  1/17  HADS

 

 

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By observations time early this morning, the backside snows of Winter Storm Heather had departed and skies here at the house were partly cloudy. The skies didn’t really seem to jive with the snow I saw in the forecast, but sure enough, clouds soon began to roll in, and within an hour, flakes were flying.

I decided to get in a quick morning session up at the mountain, and the snowfall continued to intensify as I ascended the Bolton Valley Access Road. Up in the Village there was steady snowfall, and while it wasn’t the pounding 1-2”/hour snowfall of yesterday, visibility dropped substantially and it felt like we were right back in the meat of the storm. It looks like today’s snow was rolling in from the lake effect snow event off to the west, so we thank big Lake Ontario for that.

Wilderness was the hot ticket for skiing today, since the Wilderness Double Chair doesn’t run on Mondays and Tuesdays, and this was the first chance for lift-served access to all the recent snowfall from Winter Storm Heather. I decided to start off with a short workout tour using the Wilderness Uphill Route, then stuck around for a bit of lift-served skiing after that.

It’s getting a bit tougher to discern how much powder came specifically from Winter Storm Heather, since it’s just blending in with the layers below it as the subsurface is buried deeper and deeper, but the approximate powder depths I found today were as follows:

2,000’: 6-8”

2,500’: 8-10”

3,000’: 10-12”

There was definitely a bump in powder depths even compared to what we skied yesterday thanks to the additional overnight snow and the new snow that was falling. One obvious clue that depths had increased was the fact that the snow was now getting a bit too deep for low-angle terrain. Moderate and steep terrain skied the best today. I had a feeling we’d be getting to that point today, and indeed while I’d been on mid-fats for the past few day, today I bumped up to the fat skis and that was the correct call as long as you were skiing untracked snow.

Bolton Valley is indicated that they’ve picked up roughly 60 inches of snow since the start of the year, which is very solid snowfall total for the first half of the month. Heck, 60 inches of snow is respectable even for a full month’s total at many resorts.

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

4” more today, 6” past 24 hours.  9 straight days of accumulations.  Place is just loaded with fluff.

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Thank god we have snow pack in the mountains so that we can stave off drought this summer!

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20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I saw a lot of white plates heading south on 89 Monday. Did they get much of good holiday weekend? 

Yeah Sunday and Monday were decent especially considering we just had two warm storms roll through. Certainly no disaster like Christmas week.

But Tuesday's system plus the lake effect/upslope the past two days have really added the powder on top that we needed. Those who took the whole week off are being rewarded.

I gotta think a lot of the VAST system has the green light now too?

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28 minutes ago, Froude said:

Yeah Sunday and Monday were decent especially considering we just had two warm storms roll through. Certainly no disaster like Christmas week.

But Tuesday's system plus the lake effect/upslope the past two days have really added the powder on top that we needed. Those who took the whole week off are being rewarded.

I gotta think a lot of the VAST system has the green light now too?

It’s getting there. still a lot of red but as the groomers get out there it’s get better. Red is closed, yellow is open but use caution and green is good. 
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2 hours ago, Froude said:

Yeah the mountains are stuffed all of a sudden. Such high quality snow too. What a sleeper week.

 

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This displays the current scene so well.  Nickels and dimes adding up, with a couple good fluffers in a row… following heavy wet cement.

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It is beyond good out there right now. The last 18” or so is pure powder fluff and the woods are absolutely loaded with the light mid week traffic. Has to be some 3 foot stashes. Groomers are soft and carvable on top with a firm, groomed in hard layer underneath. Almost all trails have powder banks along the sides. The wind wasn’t overwhelming today either, so 4 degrees on the lower mountain was very manageable, almost comfortable. Def recommend being careful in the woods and back country as winding up in a hidden gully or well could be tricky right now. 9d842a843b755b1774e28e96495eda49.jpg


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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

It is beyond good out there right now. The last 18” or so is pure powder fluff and the woods are absolutely loaded with the light mid week traffic. Has to be some 3 foot stashes. Groomers are soft and carvable on top with a firm, groomed in hard layer underneath. Almost all trails have powder banks along the sides. The wind wasn’t overwhelming today either, so 4 degrees on the lower mountain was very manageable, almost comfortable. Def recommend being careful in the woods and back country as winding up in a hidden gully or well could be tricky right now. 9d842a843b755b1774e28e96495eda49.jpg


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You nailed it earlier this week regarding the upslope look. Looks like the spine from Stowe to Jay got blitzed last night

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The main January thread has gone to absolute shit. Time to retreat to the NNE thread. Down to 2°, I think that’s my lowest of the season so far. Thats the one thing that bugs me about my Ambient weather station, it will give weekly, monthly and yearly highs and lows but I can’t go back month to month. It doesn’t keep that type of record. I don’t think it got any colder in November or December but I’m not 100% sure. 

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