bwt3650 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 The furnace is over and the rest of the month looks seasonable to somewhat cool, with some legit cold shots possible in fantasy land. Hoping to see some mangled flakes on the peaks by mid-month. Let's hope the nino delivers the moisture and the latitude plus elevation does it's thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Can't get too interested until we get a frost. Today we passed 2011 for 2nd latest of 26 autumns, but I'm confident we won't approach 2021 when first frost came on October 24. Maybe if the wind quits Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 7, 2023 Author Share Posted October 7, 2023 Can't get too interested until we get a frost. Today we passed 2011 for 2nd latest of 26 autumns, but I'm confident we won't approach 2021 when first frost came on October 24. Maybe if the wind quits Monday night?By the weekend looks good too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 4 hours ago, bwt3650 said: By the weekend looks good too. . Between the 14th and the 18th looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 7 hours ago, powderfreak said: I’d honestly have to look at the old Coop data, that has/had the longest reliable data. Off the cuff I’d say mid-October. 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it’s such a wide range of dates… we’ve been shoveling snow off the deck at the top of the Gondola as early as like the beginning of October and then I know we’ve also waited till November for the first dustings. We’ve had a 24-30” pack in late October (I think 2005 or 2006 it was) after a couple big events… or watching grass grow in mild/dry. Thats why my gut says mid-October as a mean blend of early and late. Tons of variance. 6 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Oct 10th thru 20th seems to be about right to get these kind of first snows the last few years here. this was Oct 17th 2020 and 2021 was almost exactly the same date. I don’t remember last year, but I feel it was later. I saw that there were inquiries about the average date for first Mansfield snow, so I updated the slide I have that gives the cumulative 1st snow percentages by month as well as the stats on the date of first snow. On the discussion of dates for the past few seasons, here are the data: 2008: Oct 3 2009: Sep 30 2010: Oct 7 2011: Oct 30 2012: Oct 8 2013: Oct 24 2014: Oct 26 2015: Oct 17 2016: Oct 26 2017: Oct 27 2018: Oct 13 2019: Oct 18 2020: Oct 17 2021: Oct 18 2022: Oct 8 Indeed as bwt showed, it was October 17th in 2020, and 2021 was right there with it on the 18th. Last year was actually somewhat interesting – it was on the earlier side with snows down around Sugarbush and Lincoln on September 23rd, and there were a few inches of accumulation in spots like the Battell Shelter. The Mansfield area didn’t actually appear to pick up snow from that event though – PF provided a firsthand report, and he said it was all ice there. Finally, on October 8th, Mansfield got its first snows. The list of first snow occurrences by month on Mansfield is below, and those numbers are used to generate the percentages in the graph. October is clearly the predominant month for Mansfield’s first accumulating snows: August 1 September 10 October 51 November 4 Sum 66 We’re clearly well into the 1 S.D. window for first snows on Mansfield now, since that starts at the end of September, so anything that might come out of this system or that next one would be right on track. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 On my way up I caught this yesterday in the Adirondacks (close to I87) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 One more shot 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Buttoning the house up today, took 6 chores just to get to the listNo frost yet. No deer either. Moving quickly to stick season up here.A quick pic from last week’s ride.. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 First accumulation for the northern greens this weekend?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 On 10/14/2023 at 5:00 PM, borderwx said: Buttoning the house up today, took 6 chores just to get to the list No frost yet. No deer either. Moving quickly to stick season up here. A quick pic from last week’s ride. . But everyone has said there’s been no foliage? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: First accumulation for the northern greens this weekend? Hopefully. Stake looked lonely yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Looks like our foliage peak will be tomorrow or Friday here in the NW Lakes Region of NH. Wind and rain this weekend will bring most of the leaves down except the oaks which always follow. I would give this season a 4 out of 10 so far but colors are rapidly changing. My guess would have been the peak this weekend if the storm and wind had held off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Looks like our foliage peak will be tomorrow or Friday here in the NW Lakes Region of NH. Wind and rain this weekend will bring most of the leaves down except the oaks which always follow. I would give this season a 4 out of 10 so far but colors are rapidly changing. My guess would have been the peak this weekend if the storm and wind had held off. It was definitely a rough year up there as I found out on my trip, especially following how vibrant 2022 was. It may have been the worst foliage year in quite some time I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchrnLker Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Here in the eastern Adks, our normal peak was very muted and brown, but now we are having a secondary peak, which is quite pretty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 I would say that the foliage peaked today here in the NW Lakes Region of NH. I took the drone up for a quick look around before the rain. My Aspens and birch were vibrant but I think the HDR settings made it a bit more saturated than what I saw with the naked eye 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Solid rain event that’s still going along the Spine and west side. East side had a quarter inch head start yesterday (not included here), then the west side blew it away today. Strong gradient and well modeled locally from east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Snow above 2800’. Maybe the first frost tonight along with with the first fire in the stove. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 21 hours ago, powderfreak said: Dumping. Gusting 50mph too. Snow level 2500ft. 20 hours ago, powderfreak said: Half inch paste at 3,000ft. Wind is honking. 17 hours ago, powderfreak said: She loves it. It was snowing very low down under 2000ft when I left the hill. @alex mixing at 1500ft isn’t surprising. Good first walk in the snow and winter environment today. 1” at the Stake officially, ha. We are on the board. 16 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yup. Looked like 1/3rd of an inch of freezing rain before snow. Very icy up there. Well, that definitely puts this season’s first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow in the books, so Oct 22 is the date for the winter of 2023-2024. The stats for this parameter are below for comparison – this is later than the mean date of Oct 11, but well within 1 S.D., so quite normal in that regard. Assuming a normal distribution, about 25% of seasons will have later first snowfall dates than this one. The dates of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow for some recent seasons are shown below as well, so this season sits later than the past few, but ahead of most of that stretch in the mid-2010s, which was a surprising run of later October dates. Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow: Mean: 10/11 Median: 10/10 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days N: 67 Most Recent: 10/22 Most Recent Days Deviation: +11 Most Recent # of S.D. Deviation: +0.732 Most Recent S.D. % Lower: 76.8% Earliest 8/28/1986 Latest 11/17/1985 Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season: 2008: Oct 3 2009: Sep 30 2010: Oct 7 2011: Oct 30 2012: Oct 8 2013: Oct 24 2014: Oct 26 2015: Oct 17 2016: Oct 26 2017: Oct 27 2018: Oct 13 2019: Oct 18 2020: Oct 17 2021: Oct 18 2022: Oct 8 2023: Oct 22 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 21 hours ago, J.Spin said: Well, that definitely puts this season’s first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow in the books, so Oct 22 is the date for the winter of 2023-2024. The stats for this parameter are below for comparison – this is later than the mean date of Oct 11, but well within 1 S.D., so quite normal in that regard. Assuming a normal distribution, about 25% of seasons will have later first snowfall dates than this one. The dates of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow for some recent seasons are shown below as well, so this season sits later than the past few, but ahead of most of that stretch in the mid-2010s, which was a surprising run of later October dates. Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow: Mean: 10/11 Median: 10/10 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days N: 67 Most Recent: 10/22 Most Recent Days Deviation: +11 Most Recent # of S.D. Deviation: +0.732 Most Recent S.D. % Lower: 76.8% Earliest 8/28/1986 Latest 11/17/1985 Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season: 2008: Oct 3 2009: Sep 30 2010: Oct 7 2011: Oct 30 2012: Oct 8 2013: Oct 24 2014: Oct 26 2015: Oct 17 2016: Oct 26 2017: Oct 27 2018: Oct 13 2019: Oct 18 2020: Oct 17 2021: Oct 18 2022: Oct 8 2023: Oct 22 There's been a lot of talk in the main thread about panic over the October warmth, late frost, winter's over etc...but this data shows, as expected, that the timing of the first snow hasn't been a predictor of the winter in Northern Vermont. For example: 2016 had a later than average first snow on October 26th and later than this year, but at jay, was well above average snowfall, 491" 2009 had a much earlier than average first snow on September 30th, but the year finished below average snowfall at 293" Latest ever November 17, 1985 and if I remember, 1985 was a frigid winter, especially January. From what I see, the October/early November "firsts" don't seem to mean much for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 24, 2023 Author Share Posted October 24, 2023 21 hours ago, J.Spin said: Well, that definitely puts this season’s first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow in the books, so Oct 22 is the date for the winter of 2023-2024. The stats for this parameter are below for comparison – this is later than the mean date of Oct 11, but well within 1 S.D., so quite normal in that regard. Assuming a normal distribution, about 25% of seasons will have later first snowfall dates than this one. The dates of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow for some recent seasons are shown below as well, so this season sits later than the past few, but ahead of most of that stretch in the mid-2010s, which was a surprising run of later October dates. Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow: Mean: 10/11 Median: 10/10 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days N: 67 Most Recent: 10/22 Most Recent Days Deviation: +11 Most Recent # of S.D. Deviation: +0.732 Most Recent S.D. % Lower: 76.8% Earliest 8/28/1986 Latest 11/17/1985 Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season: 2008: Oct 3 2009: Sep 30 2010: Oct 7 2011: Oct 30 2012: Oct 8 2013: Oct 24 2014: Oct 26 2015: Oct 17 2016: Oct 26 2017: Oct 27 2018: Oct 13 2019: Oct 18 2020: Oct 17 2021: Oct 18 2022: Oct 8 2023: Oct 22 Do you have data for 2000-2001? I think that was a 500" year up here. Curious how that started snowfall and temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 13 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Do you have data for 2000-2001? I think that was a 500" year up here. Curious how that started snowfall and temp wise. Here are some additional dates: Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season: 1955: Oct 17 1956: Nov 9 1958: Oct 27 1959: Sep 15 1960: Oct 23 1961: Oct 15 1962: Oct 24 1963: Oct 30 1964: Oct 10 1965: Oct 4 1966: Sep 24 1967: Sep 2 1968: Oct 5 1969: Oct 22 1970: Oct 17 1971: Oct 8 1972: Oct 10 1973: Oct 17 1974: Oct 2 1976: Sep 22 1977: Oct 4 1978: Oct 9 1979: Oct 8 1980: Sep 28 1981: Oct 3 1982: Oct 16 1983: Oct 24 1984: Oct 2 1985: Nov 17 1986: Aug 28 1987: Oct 4 1988: Oct 8 1989: Sep 24 1990: Oct 26 1991: Sep 21 1992: Sep 30 1993: Oct 5 1994: Oct 4 1995: Oct 29 1996: Nov 1 1997: Oct 1 1998: Sep 23 1999: Oct 4 2000: Oct 8 2001: Oct 7 2002: Oct 18 2003: Oct 2 2004: Oct 11 2005: Oct 17 2006: Oct 13 2007: Nov 6 2008: Oct 3 2009: Sep 30 2010: Oct 7 2011: Oct 30 2012: Oct 8 2013: Oct 24 2014: Oct 26 2015: Oct 17 2016: Oct 26 2017: Oct 27 2018: Oct 13 2019: Oct 18 2020: Oct 17 2021: Oct 18 2022: Oct 8 2023: Oct 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 On 10/20/2023 at 6:55 PM, wxeyeNH said: I would say that the foliage peaked today here in the NW Lakes Region of NH. I took the drone up for a quick look around before the rain. My Aspens and birch were vibrant but I think the HDR settings made it a bit more saturated than what I saw with the naked eye Very nice video! I may have not had much luck up there on my trip but the NC Mountains really popped this year! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 6 hours ago, eyewall said: Very nice video! I may have not had much luck up there on my trip but the NC Mountains really popped this year! Got some good reds and orange which was lacking over here, bright yellows and some muted reds here but it's much brighter there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 4 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Got some good reds and orange which was lacking over here, bright yellows and some muted reds here but it's much brighter there. It was the first good one in NC since 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Always surprised how busy the last weekend in OCT usually is here with peepers. Not much to look at.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Cool clouds today and tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 58 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Always surprised how busy the last weekend in OCT usually is here with peepers. Not much to look at.. Next town over from me, Sturbridge, MA is always inundated with peepers this time of year. I used to like it when I tended bar, I'd clean up for a couple weeks in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 On 10/25/2023 at 12:06 AM, J.Spin said: 1986: Aug 28 1987: Oct 4 This is amazing to me. I came to visit Vermont and Johnson State college in August of 86 and said holy shit there's white on top of that mountain i have to go here. And then I want there and on oct 4th Johnson got 6 inches of snow so it wasnt just Mansfield! I will never forget that snowfall in 87, absolutely blew my mind coming from Philadelphia. Seen plenty of oct snow since but never that early so low. Saw phish at goddard in 89 and it was 70+ that also blew my mind. but i digress. I remember years with snow on whiteface (the peak you can see from johnson) at 3750' multiple times in Sept during those years and this data shows that. It also shows it hasnt happened since except 98 and 2009. Great data j spin I appreciate you! Im eventually leaving this house and I wish I knew where I was going so i could buy a pass, im just waiting to be bought out. I have a good feeling about this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 41F IP first frozen of the year but still have not hit 32.0F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 On 10/29/2023 at 10:41 AM, wxeyeNH said: 41F IP first frozen of the year but still have not hit 32.0F Nice! I actually had some graupel when I was checking out the foliage in NC on 10/20 with a convective shower. I am hearing BTV is seeing some snow today. I miss that November start On a side note I did put this together finally after getting through the stills: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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