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Less ominous than late last week, but a narrow stripe of 3-5" rainfall by 3PM Saturday seems destined from near NYC metro north into se NYS and w CT...with most of potentially excessive rain midnight-Noon Saturday 10/7

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag
wdrag

Record daily rainfall values in the POR at POU 2.51-1972 and NYC CP 4.09-1972. Add on as deemed useful Above normal small stream flows from ne NJ into extreme se NYS and w CT, plus multiple small

wdrag
wdrag

Advance Awareness is critical as well as decision makers relying more heavily on the outlooks.  My feeling is we were a little slow to get going on awareness. 3PM with less than 24 hours lead time is

Dark Star
Dark Star

Seems every event lately is a now casting event?  I no longer have the skill or courage to make an educated guess, but I'm sure others out there (including our forum) which can make a rational call. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Heavy rainfall delayed but not denied? It looks like the radar is starting to fill in a bit. We'll see.

Gonna be heavy rain in spots, but overall it isn't looking as bad as what yesterday's models showed. It no longer appears that we're gonna see that serious 3 to 5 inch band across a chunk of the area. Instead it looks more like scattered heavy downpours now with some spots getting 1 to 2 inches. 

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Gonna be heavy rain in spots, but overall it isn't looking as bad as what yesterday's models showed. It no longer appears that we're gonna see that serious 3 to 5 inch band across a chunk of the area. Instead it looks more like scattered heavy downpours now with some spots getting 1 to 2 inches. 

The models never had a big chunk of the area receiving those amounts. It's always been very localized heavy rain spots.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Gonna be heavy rain in spots, but overall it isn't looking as bad as what yesterday's models showed. It no longer appears that we're gonna see that serious 3 to 5 inch band across a chunk of the area. Instead it looks more like scattered heavy downpours now with some spots getting 1 to 2 inches. 

The heavy stuff is going to miss to our southeast

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
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37 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The models never had a big chunk of the area receiving those amounts. It's always been very localized heavy rain spots.

I didn't say a big chunk of the area. But last night's HRRR had a band of 3 to 5 inches from the Jersey shore up through NE New Jersey and the NYC area. Doesn't appear that's gonna happen now. 3km NAM cut way back on amounts too. Some heavy rain in spots for sure, but not as impressive as it looked last night. 

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Dark Star

Dark Star

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Keeping optimistic that central Union County in NJ will escape heaviest of the rains.  Appears right now that we will get intermittent showers of varying intensity this afternoon, until the approaching front finally makes it's way through.  By then, hopefully, the main rain with that line weakens a bit.  However, farther north, Phillipe will feed some extra moisture into the whole mess?

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Tatamy

Tatamy

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8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My rain gauge back up and running after a few years out of commission. 
 

It’s reading 0.04, radar estimate shows 0.09. Not sure what’s more accurate 

If you want an excellent rain gauge get one these.  This is one of the best ones out there and you can currently get a good deal on it from Amazon.  

IMG_4454.jpeg

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

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43 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I didn't say a big chunk of the area. But last night's HRRR had a band of 3 to 5 inches from the Jersey shore up through NE New Jersey and the NYC area. Doesn't appear that's gonna happen now. 3km NAM cut way back on amounts too. Some heavy rain in spots for sure, but not as impressive as it looked last night. 

Maybe not 3-5 but it's been pouring here for a while, been ou. in it, so at least locally it's living up to the hype. I don't think your area was ever supposed to get the heavy stuff.

Either way, I prefer for this to just go away. I'm getting sick of the rainy weekends.

 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Maybe not 3-5 but it's been pouring here for a while, been ou. in it, so at least locally it's living up to the hype. I don't think your area was ever supposed to get the heavy stuff.

Either way, I prefer for this to just go away. I'm getting sick of the rainy weekends.

 

I agree with you. I enjoyed all of our heavy rain-t-storm events during the summer, but I finally got tired of it. Obviously we got more than enough rain the last few months and don't need any more, so I'm glad this one isn't producing for my area. 

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