ncjoaquin Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, ncjoaquin said: 0z Euro shows some potential, just a week out as noted by GSP. It will probably change, but it shows the potential is there. A more southerly track like the new 06/00z EC suggests heavy rain Monday, transitioning to wintry precip on the back side Monday night. The GDPS is similar in track to the EC but not as cold. The GFS timing would delay peak impacts to Tuesday, but hints at a more marginal HSLC event. 12z GFS showing a possibility in the same time frame, especially on the border. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 There is a lot of potential showing up.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 A bit down the road. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just checking in even though it's crickets around here. At this point, hoping for a late season SMASHER. Time will tell... Hope y'all are doing well! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looks like the string of gorgeous weather is coming to an end. Clouds have rolled in and rainy and potentially stormy weekend into early next week is ahead. I see that there is a NWFS possibility early next week as well. I am definitely seeing signs of a significant pattern change coming next week. Hopefully the ski areas survive the upcoming heavy rainfall. I know Cataloochee has taken advantage of the nightly below freezing temperatures the past 7 days a made a lot of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Not a bad look and I'll always take some evidence of a chance over no chance. But, we've seen this before several times this winter 1-2 weeks out and it didn't come to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I'm cautiously optimistic we will score in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Obviously mountains have the best shot but north of 40 folks in the foothills could do well too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 32 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm cautiously optimistic we will score in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Obviously mountains have the best shot but north of 40 folks in the foothills could do well too Yeah I think that's about all we can be. Just getting a new pattern set will help. I'm watching the jet screaming across the SW which is interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just throwing this out there...Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Oh well. It's not over yet, but the models are definitely not trending in our favor. It looks like another almost zero winter for Asheville. I am sure higher elevations will get some more. Oh well, it is what it is. I am very happy for the rain. I have a well. I'll take rain over drought. Spring and Summer are coming. Nothing wrong with fishing and beach trips. Maybe I will be surprised, but if not, we will try it again next Winter and hope for a better result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Oh well. It's not over yet, but the models are definitely not trending in our favor. It looks like another almost zero winter for Asheville. I am sure higher elevations will get some more. Oh well, it is what it is. I am very happy for the rain. I have a well. I'll take rain over drought. Spring and Summer are coming. Nothing wrong with fishing and beach trips. Maybe I will be surprised, but if not, we will try it again next Winter and hope for a better result. Looks like you are at the acceptance stage. I'm about there too. Truth is unless you are above 3k and close to the TN border you just aren't going to see much snow going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 High end forecast for Tuesday morning. So, maybe some flakes in the air. Though the expected forecast is zero. Trying not to give up completely yet. Who knows. It could turn positive again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And we are back on the Euro. Just when I thought I was out..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And we are back on the Euro. Just when I thought I was out..... Wow, that was a great run for just about everyone!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS is trying so hard. I think we are still definitely in the game.Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the SW mountains get a surprise dusting or inch Tue/Wed if the GFS is right with the cold wrapping around the backside of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Flooding concerns starting tonight for the southern mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Well, the predicted heavy rainfall has failed to materialize so far and the NWFS is looking light, but freezing temperatures look to return which will help in snow making this week. I like our chances for the possibility of overrunning ahead of the Saturday storm with a bit more robust NWFS to follow. Temperatures this weekend look cold with highs struggling to reach 30 and night lows in the low 20’s. Looking like a good Presidents Day Weekend for skiers! Enough of the doom and gloom. Time for some positives for the Mountains! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR looking decent with some last minute shifts south.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Imma need this weekends system to trend NW. Currently no snow AND a rained out 500 is not acceptable lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Short range looks pretty decent for border counties tonight. Might even get a dusting in the valley (Asheville) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Short range looks pretty decent for border counties tonight. Might even get a dusting in the valley (Asheville) Yeah with the low staying further south this has helped us out a lot more with some flow snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landof2rivers Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just checked the cameras and it’s snowing off of Russ Cornett/Poplar Grove outside of Boone. Hate I’m missing it. After I thought about it, I checked temps and it’s not cold enough so never mind. I just assumed the precip was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Some of tonight's short range models. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Madison County in western North Carolina... Mitchell County in western North Carolina... Northern Yancey County in western North Carolina... * Until 1045 PM EST. * At 940 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 miles southwest of Kingsport to 9 miles southeast of Greeneville to 12 miles west of Marshall, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. * Locations impacted include... Burnsville, Hot Springs, Bakersville, Buladean, Bandana, Ramseytown, Green Mountain, Swiss, Faust, and Allenstand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z GFS is SO CLOSE to a nice mountain thump this weekend. Unfortunately temps look close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Temps dropping now. Down to 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Temps dropping now. Down to 44.Fell off a cliff for a few minutes here with this line of showers. Went from 48 to 42 in about 8 minutes. Might have heard little hail but I didn't hop outside to check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 29 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Temps dropping now. Down to 44. Fell off a cliff for a few minutes here with this line of showers. Went from 48 to 42 in about 8 minutes. Might have heard little hail but I didn't hop outside to check. Yeah down to 40 now. It is dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 There's some moisture actually forming ahead of the main slug coming through Tennessee that wasn't modeled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Moisture out ahead of the main slug. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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