wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Subtle changes with the Euro. Slightly warmer, slightly less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18Z Mean is a little north and less precip than 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 18Z Mean is a little north and less precip than 12 Z Yeah I noticed it's a bit north as well but I'm not fretting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 HRRR trended south. Shows mainly rain for WNC but I’m not worried about thermals at this time. Let’s get the moisture here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Encouraging to see the HRRR shift south. Here’s total precipitation through hr 48. Moisture is still streaming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: Encouraging to see the HRRR shift south. Here’s total precipitation through hr 48. Moisture is still streaming through. That's significant for the SW mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The NAM is going to be north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Hate to be a stickler, but I’d bargain “most” of us live within 30 miles of the triangle, and this looks like hell We do not live 30 miles from the triangle.....you are in the wrong thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The NAM is going to be north again. Still North but a sizable shift south from previous runs. I’m liking the trends of short range models coming more towards the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The NAM is going to be north again. Still north. but it is coming south.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Honestly the hell with the NAM. It has sucked big time for our area recently. Just this week it was only showing like 2.2 inches for the area. A good 1.5 inches below what the gfs was showing. It's output for us has been very poor... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Sw NC weather said: Still North but a sizable shift south from previous runs. I’m liking the trends of short range models coming more towards the globals. Yep, just like our last threat. Nam shifted south at the last minute. This is a clear bias in the medium range to over amp systems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Honestly the hell with the NAM. It has sucked big time for our area recently. Just this week it was only showing like 2.2 inches for the area. A good 1.5 inches below what the gfs was showing. It's output for us has been very poor... we may end up missing out, but I’m with you on the Nam. Heck at hour 30 it just made a 75 mile shift south. One more shift like that and it’s in line with the gfs and euro and will be looking good for 2-6” hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We may have seen the south shift stop on the globals and it will hopefully continue on high res short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hi Res NAM didn't come south at all really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ended up not being as big of a shift as shown early on. But still a decent south shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The overall trend has been consistent today and we’re very much in the game. Fingers crossed tomorrow continues to fine tune the details and deliver some moisture this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM didn't come south at all really Looks like a small shift with precipitation maps, but not much. Getting late in the game one sides gonna have to start moving toward the other soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Definitely trending south on the NAM. May be where most want it at come 6z.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FV3 took a decent shift south as well. I’ll post snow map when it’s done running. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FWIW, the SREF shifted south from the last run.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Seems to me most guidance is trending south on what the Euro/GFS been showing. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not quite where we want it. But a clear trend tonight so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Definitely not loving the 40s and rain starting to show up but I'll try not to panic for now. Need precip to move in by Monday morning to help lock in thermals I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Icon made a south shift as well at 0z. Hopefully the gfs and euro hold steady here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ground temps shouldn't be an issue. They are cold and getting colder tonight and tomorrow. There's 1 positive...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVegas Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is a bit northOver the mountain special...Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, AshVegas said: Over the mountain special... Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk Not looking great for downtown Asheville. Haywood and points west look fine for 2-4. Madison too closer to the border. Downtown maybe .5 to an inch if lucky. Probably a dusting in McDowell and most of the foothills. Of course it could change some tomorrow but time is running out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NW mountains are in a weird spot.I have no real idea what to expect which is strange this close to go time. Off work Tuesday so I need it to do something good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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