nchighcountrywx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Alexander-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Hendersonville, Fletcher,Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Kings Creek,Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton,Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort,Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,Chimney Rock State Park, and Saluda354 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleetaccumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of twotenths to one quarter of an inch possible. Isolated areas couldsee ice accumulations up to three tenths of an inch.* WHERE...Portions of piedmont and western North Carolina.* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday afternoon.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GSP Morning AFD Discussion 01/04/24 300am The aforementioned low-level jet will establish a pronounced warm nose across the area before the column fully saturates with the warm nose strongest across eastern portions of the area. Wetbulbing via saturation of the dry airmass will help establish an in-situ wedge of cold air east of the mountains. Sub-freezing wetbulb temperatures will be common at precipitation onset from the mountains through the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont, especially deeper into the wedge along and north of I-40. Thus, a mixed bag of precipitation types is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. A brief period of snow is expected across the mountains before the strengthening warm nose switches things over to sleet and then freezing rain. Farther east, in the in-situ wedge, freezing rain will be the predominate precipitation type with a brief period of sleet possible across the northern foothills. Without a sustained source of cold dry air, and given the self limiting process of freezing rain due to latent heat release, all locations will eventually see surface temperatures warm above freezing. This will occur quickest on the edges of the in-situ wedge with the northern foothills and mountains the last to see temperatures rise above freezing late Saturday morning. Pretty much everyone should be seeing a cold rain by noon, if not earlier. The question now turns to how much snow/sleet/ice accumulation can be expected. The quick transition to ice across the mountains will limit snow/sleet totals to 1-2" followed by 0.05-0.2" of ice. In the in-situ wedge, marginal wetbulb temperatures and light winds will lead to modest ice accretion at best with most places on the edge of the wedge seeing a lot of runoff and less freezing of the rain. A few hundreths of an inch of accretion will be possible along I-85 before quickly warming above freezing with roughly 0.1-0.2" along a line from Statesville to Hickory to Rutherfordton and Columbus. Historically, even during in-situ wedge regimes, the foothills immediately against the Blue Ridge escarpment, especially along and north of I-40 tend to hold on to sub-freezing air the longest and have proven to be stubborn to warm. Guidance often struggles to resolve this with the NAM often having the best handle on low-level thermal profiles in wedge airmasses. Thus, more weight was given towards the NAM thermal profiles, which supports a longer duration of freezing rain against the escarpment. In addition to climatological support, probabilistic guidance also paints this area as the location most likely to have the potential to receive warning criteria ice accretion. As such, a winter storm watch has been hoisted from Alexander/Caldwell counties southwest along the escarpment through Henderson and the mountains of Polk county. The highest ice totals are expected to occur in this corridor from Lenoir to Marion to Lake Lure and Hendersonville. Eventually, winter weather advisories will be needed across the surrounding counties where ice accretion is expected. Two limiting factors that could result in less ice would be temperatures warming quicker than currently forecast and the potential for deep convection along the Gulf Coast to inhibit greater inland moisture transport and reduce available QPF. A period of northwest flow snow showers will also be possible along the Tennessee border Saturday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Light snow this morning on Crabtree. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 No snow in the Valley overnight. Fingers crossed we see snow ~vs~ ice Friday night into Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: No snow in the Valley overnight. Fingers crossed we see snow ~vs~ ice Friday night into Saturday. Yeah I was very surprised coming into Haywood this morning and seeing snow hanging on the mountains. Absolutely nothing in Buncombe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WSW down here. Praying the Canadian is smoking something. The whole suite is giving Henderson County the middle finger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Cmc precipitation values. A ton of ice on the cmc also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On the bright side, winds don't appear to be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Canadian temps are noticeably colder than pretty much all of the other guidance. Not saying it can’t be right but it has KHKY barely cresting above freezing at all, before crashing again as moisture exits. I’m not sure how much I believe that evolution. I’ve lived in the foothills most of my life and I’ve rarely seen similar setups last more than 6 ish hours. If you don’t have that steady fetch of cold air, the whole process is a ticking clock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups. Noticeable uptick from 6z as well. Quarter inch amounts in the previous cycle were very limited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups. Ouch. My prime location. Near the top of Stoney Mountain facing East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The Canadian will run soon. Let’s see if it doubles down or starts to come in line with the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm assuming just rain here in Asheville for the weekend. But, still maintaining some hope for later in jan/early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, westmc9th said: I'm assuming just rain here in Asheville for the weekend. But, still maintaining some hope for later in jan/early Feb. the windshield wiper effect on the models continued overnight and now we’re back to a cold look and likely our best look in a while mid-month. Still plenty left to have hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 with light snow still in Wolf. About .75" of new snow on the ground.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, BretWx said: Ouch. My prime location. Near the top of Stoney Mountain facing East. I recall you had a tree come down due to ice some years ago. I certainly would gladly take rain over freezing rain but it ain't my choice LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Moonhowl said: I recall you had a tree come down due to ice some years ago. I certainly would gladly take rain over freezing rain but it ain't my choice LOL. Yep! One of my favorites in the yard. And that was just with .15 ZR accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS says what Winter Storm? Much weaker and a lot less QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GDPS is light out for me. NAM is the most concerning at this point with how close we are. Moving along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hi Res NAM looks very icy for escarpment areas. It usually does pretty good with these setups. It usually significantly overdoes ice totals, similar to the Canadian. It has been on a decent streak lately though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's been a cold week above 3500'! That ice is solid enough to bounce large rocks on.https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1r4eDTra9f/?igsh=NnFzNDM5NjhseXNsSent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Henderson county still in the bullseye for ZR on all. I expect a WS Warning, but not really seeing anything terribly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Unrelated, but approaching 13 years on here! Feel like I know y'all but don't at the same time. It has been fun my friends. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, BretWx said: Unrelated, but approaching 13 years on here! Feel like I know y'all but don't at the same time. It has been fun my friends. Some of us go back to the Easternwx days and before that even. I think I first started around 2005. Even tried the accuweather forums back then (nowhere near as good as these) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Some of us go back to the Easternwx days and before that even. I think I first started around 2005. Even tried the accuweather forums back then (nowhere near as good as these) Ahhh, damn. Accuweather forums brought back some memories 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, BretWx said: Ahhh, damn. Accuweather forums brought back some memories There were some meager winters in 2006-2008 (kind of like now) in my location so I was looking for any crumb of information for snow. I have noticed a cyclical pattern to snowfall amounts for MBY. We will get 2 or 3 snowy winters in a row then 2 or 3 winters with a shutout or very little snow. For example 2006, 2007, 2008 was terrible, then 2009, and 2010 were good. 2011, 2012, and 2013 were bad, and 2014, 2015, and 2016 were all pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 30 minutes ago, BretWx said: Unrelated, but approaching 13 years on here! Feel like I know y'all but don't at the same time. It has been fun my friends. 14 Years for me! I was around for a year or two at Eastern WX as well but I rarely post anymore, just lurk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Amos83 said: 14 Years for me! I was around for a year or two at Eastern WX as well but I rarely post anymore, just lurk Same here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Winter storm watch extended to Transylvania county. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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