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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


The Alchemist
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GSP :ph34r:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM Friday...The pattern begins to change sigfnt/ly Sat
night as a deepening upper low swings a potent s/w over the FA. An
attendant sfc bndry will also cross the area Sat night and bring in
a cP airmass change. Winds pick up behind this front and the higher
NC mtn elevations will likely see gusts arnd 35-40 mph thru mid-
morning Sun. Too early and winds a little too weak for an NPW
issuance, but will continue to monitor this scenario over the next
couple fcst packages. On Sun, expect the better llvl CAA to kick in
and mtn showers associated with a moist wrap around flow will
possibly yield periods of high elevation snow or a ran/snow mix with
little accums. Cold air becomes entrenched over the region as a
broad and deep upper trof begins to transit overhead. So have max
temps about 5-8 degrees below normal Sun and around 15 degrees below
normal for Mon. Mins will begin around normal Sat night, then drop
into the m40s non/mtns and arnd 40 F mtn valleys Sun night.
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Things are promising for the first dusting of the year up here!

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Saturday...A potent ulvl shortwave will push into the wrn NC mtns to begin the period. With modest wrap around moisture taping into the Glakes, expect the upper and lower (mech) forcing to enable -shra thru the evening. By the overnight, colder H85 air moves in and lowers freezing levels to arnd 4Kft. Soundings show saturation limited below h7 with the GFS the deepest among the op models. However, no sounding is showing activated ice crystals, so will anticipate periods of -snsh or possibly -fzdz aft 06z lingering into the afternoon Mon across the high mtn elevations. Not expecting much frozen accum, a couple tenths or so, as llvl moisture wanes sigfnt/ly aft 18z. Mon will be a cooler than normal day as nw/ly llvl CAA continues with highs struggling to reach the l60s non/mtns and l50s mtn valleys. Winds will remain elevated Mon night, however, frost formation is possible across sheltered areas abv the valley floors. Another cooler than normal day on tap Tues, but not as cold as llvl CAA weakens, with highs generally held abt 10 degrees below normal across most areas.2eb113c55e7aa2e69be3f0b7f33bd154.jpg

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Gonna get windy blowing in that cold air.

Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-

Including the city of Faust

241 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

 

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT

SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

 

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph at times, with gusts up to

  50 mph possible.

 

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Yancey, Mitchell,

  Swain, Haywood, Buncombe and Graham Counties of North Carolina.

 

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday.

 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

 

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Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-
312 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Light snow showers are possible late tonight in higher elevations of
the mountains above 5,000 feet. No significant accumulation is
expected, but very minor travel impacts could occur Monday morning on
high mountain roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Light snow showers may occur at times through Monday night in higher
elevations of the mountains above 5,000 feet. No significant
accumulation is expected, but very minor travel impacts would remain
possible on high mountain roads if the snow showers continue.
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