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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


The Alchemist
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Yeah, EPS and GEPS both have good looks at H5 into the longterm. I think a broader trough gives us more chances at timing up cold air with the stj waves, as opposed to these sharp troughs dropping in right on top of us right now and trying to get lucky with phasing.

Hopefully the GFS/GEFS is out to lunch with its insistence on se ridge showing up. If we get a raging SE ridge in prime climo El niño then I'm convinced the super niño back in 2016 broke something in the Pacific, and we have a new winter base state outside of enso impacts.

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The two systems after the 4th resemble last years shit show. Sorry to use foul language but with the SER in place and lows riding over the top with torrential rainfall every 3 to 4 days.  The upper atmospheric ricer seems to have a NINA hangover of sorts. Im sure it will change but the hell with this upcoming pattern if we get shafted storm after storm to our west...

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1 minute ago, westmc9th said:

You know things are looking bad when Met is also negative. He’s usually my positive force on this board haha

Just frustrated that's all. Venting really.  It's one run. The ensembles do look good heading forward on both the gfs and the Euro. We just can't seem to get out of this crap NPAC from previous years. I mean at least we aren't entering a period like last year we're we are 70 degrees and raining non stop. Honestly I don't mind the border line temps because we can always sneak something through.  But just Venting for the most part.

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I do think we may have a legit threat around MLK day. And this Wednesday night/Thursday could be sneaky and give NE GA and SWNC a few inches if that finger of precip develops that some of the models are hinting at. 

 

I think the 7th and the storm after that will be a lot of cold rain but as others said, it will help build snowpack to the northwest and northeast. I would love to see some signs of CAD in the long range. It is one of the few things that can destroy a SE Ridge. 

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28 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Checking Spaceweather after the big solar flare today and they had posted about the SSW. Hopefully this will lead to good things for us soon. merra2_strip.jpg.5bed42b15f450b0303bae3cd6e3e5a57.jpg
 

This again?

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Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event?
 
TW
Yeah. I don't know how this stacks up in strength or anything other than in how it relates to PSCs (which made it to +42N BTW) but thought it was interesting to see it mentioned somewhere not strictly weather related.

I will say that spike is still the forecast but a warming event is underway. Just gotta see how warm it gets.
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