Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The Euro looking a bit more optimistic. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Next rainstorm a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 For what it's worth the EPS has looked good in the mid to long range.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Next rainstorm a few days later I called it. By the end of winter we will be in a surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I called it. By the end of winter we will be in a surplus. Yes you did. Hopefully it won't turn into too much of a good thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Yeah, EPS and GEPS both have good looks at H5 into the longterm. I think a broader trough gives us more chances at timing up cold air with the stj waves, as opposed to these sharp troughs dropping in right on top of us right now and trying to get lucky with phasing. Hopefully the GFS/GEFS is out to lunch with its insistence on se ridge showing up. If we get a raging SE ridge in prime climo El niño then I'm convinced the super niño back in 2016 broke something in the Pacific, and we have a new winter base state outside of enso impacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z nam for Thursday. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 I know it’s the Nam at range, but it’s something to look at. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said: I know it’s the Nam at range, but it’s something to look at. Matches well with the cmc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Get this look into 3KM range and we may have something. Almost there after a month of "torch". Climo fellows. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 NW trend for the win? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NW trend for the win? Hell we can only hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS and Icon both shifted north some at 18z. Maybe this system has some legs. No need to get to invested until 12z tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The two systems after the 4th resemble last years shit show. Sorry to use foul language but with the SER in place and lows riding over the top with torrential rainfall every 3 to 4 days. The upper atmospheric ricer seems to have a NINA hangover of sorts. Im sure it will change but the hell with this upcoming pattern if we get shafted storm after storm to our west... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Even with a bit of a ridge we cannot get an arctic front through here because of the SER. Again I hope it changes but dang.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 You know things are looking bad when Met is also negative. He’s usually my positive force on this board haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, westmc9th said: You know things are looking bad when Met is also negative. He’s usually my positive force on this board haha Just frustrated that's all. Venting really. It's one run. The ensembles do look good heading forward on both the gfs and the Euro. We just can't seem to get out of this crap NPAC from previous years. I mean at least we aren't entering a period like last year we're we are 70 degrees and raining non stop. Honestly I don't mind the border line temps because we can always sneak something through. But just Venting for the most part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 The 18z gefs does paint a bit of a better picture. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z gfs looks much better than op.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I do think we may have a legit threat around MLK day. And this Wednesday night/Thursday could be sneaky and give NE GA and SWNC a few inches if that finger of precip develops that some of the models are hinting at. I think the 7th and the storm after that will be a lot of cold rain but as others said, it will help build snowpack to the northwest and northeast. I would love to see some signs of CAD in the long range. It is one of the few things that can destroy a SE Ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Checking Spaceweather after the big solar flare today and they had posted about the SSW. Hopefully this will lead to good things for us soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 28 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Checking Spaceweather after the big solar flare today and they had posted about the SSW. Hopefully this will lead to good things for us soon. This again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event? TWYeah. I don't know how this stacks up in strength or anything other than in how it relates to PSCs (which made it to +42N BTW) but thought it was interesting to see it mentioned somewhere not strictly weather related. I will say that spike is still the forecast but a warming event is underway. Just gotta see how warm it gets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The NAM stuck to its guns and if you take into account the GFS/Euros well known issue with northern precipitation shields I think North GA/SW NC have a very good shot at a 1-3" event Wednesday evening/night.Also wouldn't be surprised if border folks wake up to a dusting to kick off the new year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro inches north for some light snow around the 4th.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On the Euro for the second storm it looks like a mountain special. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The third storm looks like a mix to rain back to snow. It's a very wound up system that really could go either way.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 06z gfs is trying with the first wave.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 06z gfs trying to get on board with the weekend storm.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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