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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


The Alchemist
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IMG_0680.thumb.png.9dfa9d40617f1b92b67727603767587b.png6z GFS showing switch over to heavy wet snow as the ULL swings through. Even down here in North GA I believe that is 100% a snow sounding even though it shows rain.

IMG_0681.thumb.png.beaf0faee448bca7600d19951ec5a2fd.pngDon't envy GSP on this forecast, somewhere in the mountains could get hammered all the way down to the valleys.

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I hope this thing does track east. There’s a fine balance in this storm of getting beneficial rainfall and not having destructive winds and multi-day outages. I’m rooting for the 12z evolution even if it sacrifices a bit of rain (we’ll still get very healthy amounts anyways).

Amen, if I ain't getting a full blown blizzard out of this then I have no interest in going through those kinds of winds. Besides, nothing in the long term suggests we're gonna be hurting for rainfall so I'm all for sitting this one out.

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 161445
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
945 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

Northwest flow showers and gustiness are expected to relent briefly
Monday morning before cranking up again later Monday and especially
Monday night, as a potent short wave trough digs through the
southern Appalachians within NW flow aloft. With snow level
plummeting in the wake of this wave, ingredients will become
favorable for accumulating snow showers near the TN/NC border during
this time frame, and it currently appears that a solid Advisory-
level event could be in the offing. Otherwise, gusts will become
quite strong...at least Wind Advisory-level...in the downslope areas
along/near the Blue Ridge escarpment late Monday into Mon
night.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk



16697503672b3d45e5ff82591558f81e.jpg

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One thing the globals are not picking up on that the NAMs are is a direct moisture fetch off lake Michigan late Monday into Monday.  Combine that with the really cold 850s and you have a recipe for a good flow event.  

But it's the NAM and over 24 hours out.  But it's something to watch evolve for sure. 

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9 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

And that goes back to your previous post, doesn't it? Is that just due to the lower resolution, you think? Or is this another instance of the nam suckering us in?

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

 

Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours.  Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution.   It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible.  

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2 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours.  Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution.   It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible.  

For whatever reason the GFS somehow doesn't pickup basically any nwsf really. Just the disturbance mainly and that to the North.

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Rain has also really shifted east. We may not get half an inch across most of the area. We do still need rain believe it or not. The water table is low and we are at a 5 to 10 inch deficit for 2023 for the region. 

Yeah was hoping for a super soaker this weekend but we got shafted.

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