SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 6z GFS showing switch over to heavy wet snow as the ULL swings through. Even down here in North GA I believe that is 100% a snow sounding even though it shows rain. Don't envy GSP on this forecast, somewhere in the mountains could get hammered all the way down to the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Just popping in to say this ULL is our first real chance of the season. Someone could get hammered very quickly.Always good to see Hunter post...that's when you know the threat is real.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Models have been trending east all day. New Euro doesn't give us more than an inch of rain even in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Just a SLIIGGGHTTTT difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Good news is the low really pulls in some cold air after it passes and a nice vort crosses giving the mountains their best NW flow of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models have been trending east all day. New Euro doesn't give us more than an inch of rain even in the foothills. Wonder if it's a situation where things go east today, and then we see the usual NW trend inside 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 I hope this thing does track east. There’s a fine balance in this storm of getting beneficial rainfall and not having destructive winds and multi-day outages. I’m rooting for the 12z evolution even if it sacrifices a bit of rain (we’ll still get very healthy amounts anyways). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I hope this thing does track east. There’s a fine balance in this storm of getting beneficial rainfall and not having destructive winds and multi-day outages. I’m rooting for the 12z evolution even if it sacrifices a bit of rain (we’ll still get very healthy amounts anyways). Amen, if I ain't getting a full blown blizzard out of this then I have no interest in going through those kinds of winds. Besides, nothing in the long term suggests we're gonna be hurting for rainfall so I'm all for sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Gfs moves the system further east. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro says not a bad weekend. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 A little snow from the Euro but the further north and east this trends the more of a non event this will be.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 NAM is way east. We might have a decent weekend. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 06z gfs looks meh.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 06z gfs snow is disappearing. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 This would be interesting. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 NAM has come back west a bit at 12z. I don't think the shifts are anywhere near done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 15, 2023 Share Posted December 15, 2023 Euro and GFS both still like that vort swinging around the backside hitting the border counties.12km NAM does as well. Further east track seems to make that vort more likely than the earlier further west runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Well there's this. Bring it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Love seeing that thing dig so far south on the NAM. Would definitely put North GA in the game for at least a nice flizzard. Too bad it's the NAM at range lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 000FXUS62 KGSP 161445AFDGSPArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC945 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023Northwest flow showers and gustiness are expected to relent brieflyMonday morning before cranking up again later Monday and especiallyMonday night, as a potent short wave trough digs through thesouthern Appalachians within NW flow aloft. With snow levelplummeting in the wake of this wave, ingredients will becomefavorable for accumulating snow showers near the TN/NC border duringthis time frame, and it currently appears that a solid Advisory-level event could be in the offing. Otherwise, gusts will becomequite strong...at least Wind Advisory-level...in the downslope areasalong/near the Blue Ridge escarpment late Monday into Monnight.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Not gonna lie. I woke up thinking about the blizzard warnings we would be under if we just had a high to our northwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Snow #14 inbound for the high country above 5000' so far this winter. Keep counting them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 One thing the globals are not picking up on that the NAMs are is a direct moisture fetch off lake Michigan late Monday into Monday. Combine that with the really cold 850s and you have a recipe for a good flow event. But it's the NAM and over 24 hours out. But it's something to watch evolve for sure. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 The 3km actually closes the trough off over the lakes. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And the 18z GFS says almost zero flow snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And the 18z GFS says almost zero flow snow. And that goes back to your previous post, doesn't it? Is that just due to the lower resolution, you think? Or is this another instance of the nam suckering us in? Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Buckethead said: And that goes back to your previous post, doesn't it? Is that just due to the lower resolution, you think? Or is this another instance of the nam suckering us in? Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours. Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution. It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 hours ago, MotoWeatherman said: Sadly I don't trust the NAM outside 24 hours. Usually the GFS does a decent job even with the lower resolution. It's rare for the GFS to totally whiff and the NAM wins but it's not impossible. For whatever reason the GFS somehow doesn't pickup basically any nwsf really. Just the disturbance mainly and that to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Rain has also really shifted east. We may not get half an inch across most of the area. We do still need rain believe it or not. The water table is low and we are at a 5 to 10 inch deficit for 2023 for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Rain has also really shifted east. We may not get half an inch across most of the area. We do still need rain believe it or not. The water table is low and we are at a 5 to 10 inch deficit for 2023 for the region. Yeah was hoping for a super soaker this weekend but we got shafted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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