wncsnow Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, mercurydime said: 3.23 inches of rain for the event here in Pleasant Gardens. Didn't see any flakes last night up to around midnight. We surely needed that rain. I'll stay tuned here for any positive changes in the snow forecast during the weeks ahead. 'Preciate y'all. I have a theory that we needed to end the drought before we could get some real winter threats. We'll see if that's correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Down to 23 already. High was 34 for about 45 minutes this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 7 hours ago, wncsnow said: I have a theory that we needed to end the drought before we could get some real winter threats. We'll see if that's correct. Yeah I was thinking today shoot let's get the water tables back up then let's get some great snows. I'd like to see about three more storms that produce 3 plus inches of rainfall this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: Down to 23 already. High was 34 for about 45 minutes this afternoon. Yeah down to 20 here currently. Bone chilling with a very heavy frost already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Made it to 17 with a very heavy frost. More accumulated frozen stuff than we had the other day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 20 here in the Valley with the heaviest frost of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 16 this morning with frosted tips on everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Already down to freezing and frost from this morning never melted on my North facing mountain. What a way to run a "torch"! Cataloochee has a good crowd on the mountain for night skiing and snow making continues to increase the base. It is a great time to consider heading to the mountains for some fun on the slopes before the Holiday rush! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This is a complex system with many many features but this is exactly what we need. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This is with the same system that would bring us lots of rainfall but this would be an elevation dependant snow which could put down feet not inches but feet of snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 5 hours ago, Met1985 said: This is with the same system that would bring us lots of rainfall but this would be an elevation dependant snow which could put down feet not inches but feet of snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk This latest run (06z) takes it all away. I don't think we will know for sure what will happen until we get closer. I am pulling for you guys. Let those ski resorts build their bases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 52 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: This latest run (06z) takes it all away. I don't think we will know for sure what will happen until we get closer. I am pulling for you guys. Let those ski resorts build their bases. Yeah I'm not surprised and the Euro isn't even close to this solution. Euro barely has any rain for us at all. Still a lot to figure out but hey something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Yeah I'm not surprised and the Euro isn't even close to this solution. Euro barely has any rain for us at all. Still a lot to figure out but hey something to track.These borderline scenarios are always fun to track if you go in without expectations. Right now, I'm just expecting rain, but I did notice my forecast from gsp...Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely. Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer. This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 21 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely. Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer. This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday. Don't look at the 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 18z gfsSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely. Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer. This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday. Yeah you are exactly right. These tricky ULLS can bring big surprises to the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Still have a bit of frost left on my North facing mountain from yesterday morning. A dry cold front is passing this evening with a reinforcing shot of modified cold air. Obviously all eyes are on the weekend storm system. It's going to be fun to track another weekend system that could bring yet another chance of snow to the mountains. The 18Z GFS suggested 7 inches in my backyard. Snow making opportunities continue across our ski areas and that is a good thing! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 I'm curious to see what this ULL/noreaster does to the pattern as a whole. Seen some wacky stuff out of the gfs in the long range. It could really shake things up. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: I'm curious to see what this ULL/noreaster does to the pattern as a whole. Seen some wacky stuff out of the gfs in the long range. It could really shake things up. I totally agree. Could set up a big -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: I'm curious to see what this ULL/noreaster does to the pattern as a whole. Seen some wacky stuff out of the gfs in the long range. It could really shake things up. I’m intrigued as well. It seems like every major typhoon in the wpac has major downstream effects….. similar to that - could this be the wrench in the atmosphere that dislodges some locked up air downstream? The frigid air in Siberia, northern Mongolia and Japan has been relatively locked up by a monster high in south east Asia after it had previously been on the move from Europe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 This is gonna be a mess if that GFS run is right. Haven't seen a run with widespread winds like this since Irma. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: This is gonna be a mess if that GFS run is right. Haven't seen a run with widespread winds like this since Irma. Verbatim, with wet soils, that’s several hundred thousand without power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: This is gonna be a mess if that GFS run is right. Haven't seen a run with widespread winds like this since Irma. Looks fun. I mean especially that kind of wind whistling through the mountains. A rare event if this comes for fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 00z euro says I'll end the drought with one storm. This would be a problem even in drought areas. Too much water all at once. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 00z euro says I've got your high elevation snow and a very strong vort that rolls in and brings flow snow....Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 4 hours ago, Met1985 said: 00z euro says I've got your high elevation snow and a very strong vort that rolls in and brings flow snow.... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Well Haywood would be powerless until 2024, have trees down everywhere and be dealing with landslides if that happened. If ever there was another ‘93, a December “hurricane” would be it. 977 pressure inland cutting through the middle of the state is ridiculous. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Well Haywood would be powerless until 2024, have trees down everywhere and be dealing with landslides if that happened. If ever there was another ‘93, a December “hurricane” would be it. 977 pressure inland cutting through the middle of the state is ridiculous. Yeah no kidding! Going from getting 3 plus inches of rainfall to 2 feet of heavy wet snow. Talk about a worst case scenario of sorts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Just popping in to say this ULL is our first real chance of the season. Someone could get hammered very quickly. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 44 minutes ago, Hvward said: Just popping in to say this ULL is our first real chance of the season. Someone could get hammered very quickly. As always, enjoyed the blog this morning with my cup of coffee and looking forward to the video! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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