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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


The Alchemist
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7 minutes ago, mercurydime said:

3.23 inches of rain for the event here in Pleasant Gardens.  Didn't see any flakes last night up to around midnight.  We surely needed that rain.  

I'll stay tuned here for any positive changes in the snow forecast during the weeks ahead.  'Preciate y'all.  

 

I have a theory that we needed to end the drought before we could get some real winter threats. We'll see if that's correct. 

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7 hours ago, wncsnow said:

 

I have a theory that we needed to end the drought before we could get some real winter threats. We'll see if that's correct. 

Yeah I was thinking today shoot let's get the water tables back up then let's get some great snows. I'd like to see about three more storms that produce 3 plus inches of rainfall this month.

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Already down to freezing and frost from this morning never melted on my North facing mountain. What a way to run a "torch"! Cataloochee has a good crowd on the mountain for night skiing and snow making continues to increase the base. It is a great time to consider heading to the mountains for some fun on the slopes before the Holiday rush!

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5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

This is with the same system that would bring us lots of rainfall but this would be an elevation dependant snow which could put down feet not inches but feet of snow. sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.jpg

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This latest run (06z) takes it all away. I don't think we will know for sure what will happen until we get closer. I am pulling for you guys. Let those ski resorts build their bases.

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52 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

This latest run (06z) takes it all away. I don't think we will know for sure what will happen until we get closer. I am pulling for you guys. Let those ski resorts build their bases.

Yeah I'm not surprised and the Euro isn't even close to this solution.  Euro barely has any rain for us at all. Still a lot to figure out but hey something to track.

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Yeah I'm not surprised and the Euro isn't even close to this solution.  Euro barely has any rain for us at all. Still a lot to figure out but hey something to track.
These borderline scenarios are always fun to track if you go in without expectations. Right now, I'm just expecting rain, but I did notice my forecast from gsp...
c12ae61a37993a5b67314d61e86af697.jpg

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This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely.  Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer.  This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday.

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21 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely.  Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer.  This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday.

Don't look at the 18z GFS

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25 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

This weekend's potential upper level low needs to be watched closely.  Typically in years past the ULL would trend stronger as the model runs get closer and closer.  This is not that far off from being a major whopper for the mountains come Sunday night into Monday.

Yeah you are exactly right. These tricky ULLS can bring big surprises to the mountains. 

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Still have a bit of frost left on my North facing mountain from yesterday morning.  A dry cold front is passing this evening with a reinforcing shot of modified cold air. Obviously all eyes are on the weekend storm system. It's going to be fun to track another weekend system that could bring yet another chance of snow to the mountains. The 18Z GFS suggested 7 inches in my backyard. Snow making opportunities continue across our ski areas and that is a good thing!

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13 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'm curious to see what this ULL/noreaster does to the pattern as a whole. Seen some wacky stuff out of the gfs in the long range. It could really shake things up.

I’m intrigued as well. It seems like every major typhoon in the wpac has major downstream effects….. similar to that - could this be the wrench in the atmosphere that dislodges some locked up air downstream? The frigid air in Siberia, northern Mongolia and Japan has been relatively locked up by a monster high in south east Asia after it had previously been on the move from Europe. 

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4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

00z euro says I've got your high elevation snow and a very strong vort that rolls in and brings flow snow....sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.jpg

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Well Haywood would be powerless until 2024,  have trees down everywhere and be dealing with landslides if that happened.  If ever there was another ‘93, a December “hurricane” would be it.  977 pressure inland cutting through the middle of the state is ridiculous. 

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3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Well Haywood would be powerless until 2024,  have trees down everywhere and be dealing with landslides if that happened.  If ever there was another ‘93, a December “hurricane” would be it.  977 pressure inland cutting through the middle of the state is ridiculous. 

Yeah no kidding! Going from getting 3 plus inches of rainfall to 2 feet of heavy wet snow. Talk about a worst case scenario of sorts.

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