Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Not a bad look from the gfs. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Really backed off from 12z though. Hopefully, Nams onto something and as we get closer more anafrontal shows further sw as the cold is realized moving in sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I've been monitoring all the various guidance most of the week wondering how in the world could a anafront with cold chasing rain drop a couple of inches of snow in a couple of hours? If the full latitude trough turns a bit more negative and another wave of low pressure tries to organize in Alabama, I suppose it's possible. I'll be watching all weekend and see if we can go 2 for 2 in the "surprise " category. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 So the 00Z NAM gives me 6 inches. Even Asheville is near Winter Storm Warning criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: So the 00Z NAM gives me 6 inches. Even Asheville is near Winter Storm Warning criteria. Was just going to post this. I hope the NAM is onto something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Even the 3k NAM doesn't look bad.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Even the 3k NAM doesn't look bad. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The NAM nest will certainly be interesting to watch. I'd typically cut the QPF in half, but perhaps the meso models are sniffing out multiple waves riding along the trough with heavier rates than previously anticipated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: The NAM nest will certainly be interesting to watch. I'd typically cut the QPF in half, but perhaps the meso models are sniffing out multiple waves riding along the trough with heavier rates than previously anticipated. Yeah I've been saying a little more tilt and we are in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 The 0z RDPS increased totals from 18z.18z 0z Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hi Res GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 The sref has been steadily improving the past few runs as well.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Brad Panovich posted this from I assume their in house model. Good look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 00z gfs looks way better than before. Great trends.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 0z gfs improved as well. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 All within 2.5 days so I'm getting more and more excited. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 So we have the Euro against the NAM, CMC, and the GFS...Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 06z NAM shifts just a bit east. Again run to run shifts will be normal. Still more adjustments to come.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 I wouldn't mind a local chase to Roxboro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Brad Panovich posted this from I assume their in house model. Good look. Probably the same model that was spitting out 5-7 for earlier this week lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 6 hours ago, Met1985 said: 06z NAM shifts just a bit east. Again run to run shifts will be normal. Still more adjustments to come. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Downsloping is the most painful and interesting phenomenon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 HRRR agrees on the burst of snow at the back. Actually changes 5kft and up over to snow by mid afternoon tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Euro still just token flakes.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Euro still just token flakes. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1-3 would be a huge win with the Pacific pattern coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: 1-3 would be a huge win with the Pacific pattern coming Oh yeah especially currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Thinking of making the drive up to Beech/Banner Elk tomorrow afternoon. Haven't chased in a while and it would be fun to see some flakes fly before tholiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 The models are picking up on the cold air being delayed behind the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 NAM says congrats piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 18z namSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: 18z nam Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3k 18z NAM smokes the mountains and more places in the lee of the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Closer in shot of 18z 3k NAM. Too bad it's the NAM but it's big run for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Short range's look so good. Not getting my hopes up thought! Would be nice to see no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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