Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 00Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 341 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 NCZ033-048>050-052-059-062-142000- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0003.240115T0600Z-240116T1200Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Northern Jackson-Macon- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands 341 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, and spotty freezing rain could add a light glaze of ice. * WHERE...Portions of the mountains of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very cold temperatures and light snow or light freezing drizzle could linger through Tuesday morning. Additional statements may be needed to address this as confidence increases. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet, or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. The latest state road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 06z gfs for both storms. Honestly I love we're we sit. A bit of a wobble south with the precipitation and we jackpot. I'm feeling very good about this. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Also I thought the Euro looked solid. I mean how many have saw 1 inch of snow this year? I think several could be in for a surprise. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Thought Buncombe would be a winter weather advisory with what the latest Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Good luck boys. Unless something happens, I expect a few passing flakes Monday and Tuesday down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Was hoping to wake up to something better. So close to a decent event. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Models have backed off for most even the 6Z euro. Looks like a non event for Asheville east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Today is the day we need to see some love and movement from the short range guidance. You can throw the gfs and euro out at this point. We need the HRRR, NAM 3k and GDPS to start setting up shop where we need it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Models have backed off for most even the 6Z euro. Looks like a non event for Asheville east Downsloping in this setup is going to do exactly what you and I are accustomed to it doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Maybe the short range models come around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Maybe Met can give some insight but GSP is so confusing sometimes..Winter Storm Warning here but forecast in Western Mountains(Swain Graham Haywood)is Rain /Snow mix through Tuesday with little accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nam is still North. Crazy to see so much difference only 24 hrs out. Globals vs. short range models, let’s see who wins out. On a side note Hrrr has got close, one more shift and we would be looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Tacoma said: Maybe the short range models come around today. So far, no. Some mixing and rain showing up on the high res models. That's why some totals are being cut in the SW mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I have thrown in all my chips on the wrf-arw! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hi Res NAM = not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Maybe Met can give some insight but GSP is so confusing sometimes..Winter Storm Warning here but forecast in Western Mountains(Swain Graham Haywood)is Rain /Snow mix through Tuesday with little accumulation That is something that I think is coming from the short range models. As wncsnow mentioned they are showing some rain actually for some mountain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I have thrown in all my chips on the wrf-arw! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=us&pkg=ref_frznMight as well at this point! LOL!Everyone just pick your favorite and ride with it. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, BretWx said: Might as well at this point! LOL! Everyone just pick your favorite and ride with it. . Ha! Ha! Yes. I don't hold out much hope for it, but I might as well ride something good until the ultimate 43 degree wind driven drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yikes. Those thermals are going to give some folks in e tn heart palpitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So we have the short range models against the globals. If the globals go north then we are cooked. If the globals stay pretty steadfast then I think we will be ok. I'm riding the globals personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I wish the Friday threat was looking better. I hope we don't go into February with a shutout here but it's looking more likely every day. It's now been 731 days since our last snowstorm. We are getting close to our biggest streak since I have lived here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 chiming in from the sidelines, been too long. good luck everybody! Congrats TN valley folks, love this look. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just thinking about this past week regarding the short-term guidance. Early this past week we had a chance of light snow with no accumulations and no Advisory. Got 2 inches with that one. Rain forecasted for Friday, received sleet and graupel with light accumulations in the Northern Mountains (yeah Buckethead). So we have a cold front crossing the mountains mid day with fresh cold air. I Look back SW to S Central and SE Texas and now there are Advisories down into Houston proper as the first shot of Artic airmass is coming colder and wetter than the models had been indicating. I'll be looking at satalite and radar from this point on and just glancing at the models. Good luck gang and here's to Monday and Tuesday filled with good surprises! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: Just thinking about this past week regarding the short-term guidance. Early this past week we had a chance of light snow with no accumulations and no Advisory. Got 2 inches with that one. Rain forecasted for Friday, received sleet and graupel with light accumulations in the Northern Mountains (yeah Buckethead). So we have a cold front crossing the mountains mid day with fresh cold air. I Look back SW to S Central and SE Texas and now there are Advisories down into Houston proper as the first shot of Artic airmass is coming colder and wetter than the models had been indicating. I'll be looking at satalite and radar from this point on and just glancing at the models. Good luck gang and here's to Monday and Tuesday filled with good surprises! Yep. We've had snow this week already that really wasn't forecast. The snow we got earlier this week wasn't even supposed to happen. All the models had blanked several locations that did receive snow. Friday's surprise wasn't anywhere on the models and several of us saw some kind of frozen precipitation... Yeah I agree, it's a nowcast time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This looks like a good run on the 12z gfs.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'd say this is a good run for a large portion of the viewing area. Even an inch or two into Buncombe. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Met1985 said: I'd say this is a good run for a large portion of the viewing area. Even an inch or two into Buncombe. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk My god. I need like a 10 mile jog south. This must be how the Wake County crowd feels every single year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'd say this is a good run for a large portion of the viewing area. Even an inch or two into Buncombe. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkShort drive to see some action for me on Monday ! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Incoming!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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