Met1985 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This look from the GEPS is something we can definitely work with also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 ZR on most models isn't giving me good feelings. I do NOT want that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think the GFS/GEFS is showing it's progressive bias with the MJO, leading to its outlier warm signal. Both EPS and GEPS are stalling around phase 3 and look about as good as we can ask for by mid month. Just look at this ridge bridge over top of north America, with a crazy strong west based -NAO. 5 day average for the 12th-17th. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Honestly I believe that the best is yet to come regarding our winter weather potential. Nino climatology strongly suggested that things wouldn't get going until mid January at the earliest. We've had lots of teasers with even an inch or so here at Valley level in early December. That "torch" December never really materialized for those of us living in the mountains. Think of all those awesome pictures posted just the last 30 days. Heck, I might even see a flurry or two tomorrow evening! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Heck, let a few storms cut. Like I said earlier, we have ZERO snowpack anywhere we need it to be. We’re setting up for quite a few high pressure over the top opportunities and some snow would put a cap on modifying those air masses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Look at the 18z gfs. Still has the wound up storm cutting. Who is right? My bets are on the Euro and eps. Gfs is out to lunch. There are going to be some changes in the pattern moving forward. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah, with that strong -NAO the GFS should correct SE with those cutting Systems. May even do like the lumbering LP that hit central Plains with that blizzard a little over a week ago. It cut toward the MW then got shunted SE by the HP in Canada then. That used to happen in Winter's of yore when blocking was in place. If one did cut it would get blocked and then have to travel SE under and around the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 As we have seen several times this season so far are changes in the pattern post 5 days. We've seen the models want to shunt storms through the middle of the country only to correct and swing all the way through to the coast. Just be patient and we will see things develop. This is not last year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 00z NAM says there might be some flakes in the southern mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The NAM (I know) has AVL at 26 with a dewpoint of 18 Friday night around midnight. If that verifies before the moisture moves it, it will be difficult to get above freezing especially in CAD areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The NAM (I know) has AVL at 26 with a dewpoint of 18 Friday night around midnight. If that verifies before the moisture moves it, it will be difficult to get above freezing especially in CAD areas. The WAA is crazy on the NAM but it's way out at the end of the run. It goes from 26 with a dewpoint of 18 to 33 wetbulbed with rain falling within 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RDPS looks more what I expect. Lots of sleet near the Blue Ridge north of 40 for the first few hours of precip. It's a good short range model usually. Although this is at the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS and Canadian both look decent guys. This ones not over yet! Keep that primary to the south and we got a shot IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UK is best its been yet and further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: UK is best its been yet and further south. I think some of this would be sleet and ZR but this is a big shift. Another shift or 2 and it might be game on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian coming in colder. Think it's time to start a thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We need weaker and less amped. It'll let the system come further south. Stronger will mean more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just getting around to looking at the 00z suites. As wncsnow as mentioned the gfs looks lots better. I think is eroding the CAD too fast but that is the norm.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Also the third system looks 10 times better for our area. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So far the 00z euro is south and weaker. Looks wintery.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Third system now looks more wintery. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Second system looks like a mess on the 6z gfs.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Chance of light snow showers early this evening into the midnight hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hoping things trend away from all of the ice today. The Canadian is terrifying for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When's the last time one of these ice events came to fruition? I think the last major ice event I had was in 2003 or 2004. Lots of little glaze events but nothing major since. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, westmc9th said: When's the last time one of these ice events came to fruition? I think the last major ice event I had was in 2003 or 2004. Lots of little glaze events but nothing major since. Yea I’m a bit skeptical unless the low can continue trending weaker. I’ve almost never seen an in-situ CAD produce anything more than maybe a tenth of an inch of ice. Dew points rarely verify on the low end of the scale in these events. I’m fine with all of that. If it’s not snow or even sleet, I’m not interested anyways. Nothing good about freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 at the house this morning. Here are some pros and cons for the upcoming system- Pros: 1.Timing- With the faster timing, it looks like most of the moisture will fall during Friday night starting sometime after midnight. This will maximize what cold air we do have. 2.Track- Most models have gotten rid of any TN valley low and have a southern track. This will diminish the WAA and keep CAD areas colder. 3. Confluence- Models have trended slightly colder mainly due to better confluence to the NE and a slightly stronger high. We want to see that continue with todays runs. Cons: 1. Lack of true CAD- This is always a big issue east of the Blue Ridge. We can get wintry precip with InSitu CAD but its rare. 2. Lack of moisture- Models are keeping this system weaker with less heavy precip for WNC. This could lead to freezing drizzle and it might accrue better but we need a heavy front end thump to get a few inches of snow and sleet. 3. The Pacific- The Pac has been a pain all winter and really the past 3 or 4 winters it has not been on our side at all. We need the N Pac ridge to move/dissipate. There is a ton of energy coming from the Pacific still which can be good but with the -PNA its always going to be a thread the needle type of situation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways We already have one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We already have one I pay attention about as well as my wife says I do. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways We don't start storm threads for the mountains. This is a catch all. We just roll with one long thread through the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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