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Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion


michsnowfreak
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7 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Xenia obviously takes the honors for the most powerful tornado, but I am willing to bet that Van Wert leads in numbers. I will have to look it up when I have time.

A total of 73 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Xenia, OH. Distance (miles), Date, Magnitude, Start Lat/Log .I
 
A total of 62 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Van Wert, OH. ... * The information on this page is based on ...
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8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Xenia obviously takes the honors for the most powerful tornado, but I am willing to bet that Van Wert leads in numbers. I will have to look it up when I have time.

I am sure you are right on this. NW Ohio is the tornado alley of Ohio.

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Is it too late to bet? 

Xenia, OH Natural Disasters and Weather Extremes

  USA.com http://www.usa.com › Ohio › Xenia, OH       A total of 73 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Xenia, OH. Distance (miles), Date, Magnitude, Start Lat/Log .I  

Van Wert, OH Natural Disasters and Weather Extremes

  USA.com http://www.usa.com › ... › Van Wert, OH       A total of 62 historical tornado events that had recorded magnitude of 2 or above found in or near Van Wert, OH. ... * The information on this page is based on ...


Van Wert County is likely the busiest, it’s a small town so going off the county is your best bet.
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1 hour ago, Baum said:

snow on Halloween is never a good sign longer term. 

Interesting concept that a single day's weather event in October will control the entire winter pattern.

Is it a specific location can't get snow or the entire globe?

I think it may not have much impact.  Flint MI got snow Halloween 2017 and then proceeded to break the season snowfall record during the 2017-2018 winter.

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:facepalm:

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

Interesting concept that a single day's weather event in October will control the entire winter pattern.

Is it a specific location can't get snow or the entire globe?

I think it may not have much impact.  Flint MI got snow Halloween 2017 and then proceeded to break the season snowfall record during the 2017-2018 winter.

 

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13 hours ago, Baum said:

snow on Halloween is never a good sign longer term. 

There's really not a big correlation one way or the other...

...Chicago Halloween-Winter Snowfall Comparison Stats...

2019: 3.4" = Winter 2019/20: 34.8" (Neutral/El Nino)
2014: 0.1" - Winter 2014/15: 50.7" (El Nino)
1993: T - Winter 1993/94: 41.8" (Neutral)
1955: T - Winter 1955/56: 26.3" (La Nina)
1926: T - Winter 1926/27: 23.8"
1918: T - Winter 1918/19: 28.7"
1917: T - Winter 1917/18: 64.1"

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On 10/30/2023 at 8:27 PM, Chicago Storm said:

There's really not a big correlation one way or the other...

...Chicago Halloween-Winter Snowfall Comparison Stats...

2019: 3.4" = Winter 2019/20: 34.8" (Neutral/El Nino)
2014: 0.1" - Winter 2014/15: 50.7" (El Nino)
1993: T - Winter 1993/94: 41.8" (Neutral)
1955: T - Winter 1955/56: 26.3" (La Nina)
1926: T - Winter 1926/27: 23.8"
1918: T - Winter 1918/19: 28.7"
1917: T - Winter 1917/18: 64.1"

A lot of it is weather superstition, of which we have plenty of lol. It doesnt help that we had a stretch of snowy, cold Novembers followed by mild Decembers the past decade. But in reality, it is no predicator of what winter will bring.

 

Detroit Halloween-Winter Snowfall:

2023: 0.2" - Winter 2023-24: ?

2019: T - Winter 2019-20: 43.7" (mild)

2017: T - Winter 2017-18: 61.0" (avg/slightly cold)

2014: T - Winter 2014-15:  47.5" (cold)

1993: 0.1" - Winter 1993-94: 45.8" (cold)

1955: T - Winter 1955-56: 45.2" (avg/slightly cold)

1917: T - Winter 1917-18: 38.4" (cold)

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Larry Cosgrove sees a similarity so far to 2009/2010 djf. (72-73 also but I dunno if anyone knows what kind of winter that was except for josh)

1972-73 was like a colder version of last winter in that our area had multiple snowstorms while the East Coast had next to nothing. It was milder than average and not a great winter for snowcover, but definitely had its ups and downs and multiple wintry spells. 2009-10 was a decent winter.

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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Larry Cosgrove sees a similarity so far to 2009/2010 djf. (72-73 also but I dunno if anyone knows what kind of winter that was except for josh)

It was known for the St. Patty's Day storm that buried cities like Jackson and Bay City with 20+. A colder version is what SEMI needs. Something between 72-73 & 02-03

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7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

It was known for the St. Patty's Day storm that buried cities like Jackson and Bay City with 20+. A colder version is what SEMI needs. Something between 72-73 & 02-03

Good thing I wasn't around for that. I'm all for wild temp swings as it may be the only setup/way we can get that historic big one...

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20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1972-73 was like a colder version of last winter in that our area had multiple snowstorms while the East Coast had next to nothing. It was milder than average and not a great winter for snowcover, but definitely had its ups and downs and multiple wintry spells. 2009-10 was a decent winter.

2009-2010 was a decent winter for you?! Thats crazy because that winter is ranked as one of the worst in Torontos history haha. 52.5cm or about 20" of snow for the entire season (average season is around 40-45" across the GTA) 

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44 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

2009-2010 was a decent winter for you?! Thats crazy because that winter is ranked as one of the worst in Torontos history haha. 52.5cm or about 20" of snow for the entire season (average season is around 40-45" across the GTA) 

Snowfall was around average at Detroit, but it was by far the most tame winter in a great stretch. I had 46.1" but 27" of that fell in Feb. I can remember the snow drought of Toronto and Northern New England that winter. I remember it was much colder that winter than I expected considering the enso state. 

2007-08: 71.7"

2008-09: 65.7"

2009-10: 43.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit got 9.9" with the 1973 St Patty's storm. It was after a warm March to that point.

That's why I said we'd need a colder version like the Mod Nino of 02-03. Despite this early warmth (which I'm fine with tbh), I think we have a shot at the colder scenario working out. We may get there via some crazy swings though. Torch months like Dec '14 mixed with record cold months like Feb '15 could be in play. I doubt it gets cold and stays that way like 02-03. Palm peeps say that's in the mirror now for our region anyways.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snowfall was around average at Detroit, but it was by far the most tame winter in a great stretch. I had 46.1" but 27" of that fell in Feb. I can remember the snow drought of Toronto and Northern New England that winter. I remember it was much colder that winter than I expected considering the enso state. 

2007-08: 71.7"

2008-09: 65.7"

2009-10: 43.7"

2010-11: 69.1"

09-10 was actually an AN snowfall season further west. Then we slid downwards as 2010-11 favored SEMI better than SWMI. You'd see that if it weren't for all the "M's". I really like how there's an "M" for the season in 19-20 even tho none in the months for that year: 

image.png.beed59058e6578ca438b156e062ea98e.png

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14 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Good thing I wasn't around for that. I'm all for wild temp swings as it may be the only setup/way we can get that historic big one...

Not sure which season you are speaking of there? As for the wild swings, see my other post and I agree. 1991-92 may fall into that camp as well. Iirc, it was a Nino that delivered an impressive "Detroit Special" in mid-January (some say it was a triple-phaser). 10-15" across the region in very dynamic fashion had much of the city at a virtual standstill. I was living in Traverse at the time and we'd had a blah season to that point so I wasn't too happy, lol.  

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3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure which season you are speaking of there? As for the wild swings, see my other post and I agree. 1991-92 may fall into that camp as well. Iirc, it was a Nino that delivered an impressive "Detroit Special" in mid-January (some say it was a triple-phaser). 10-15" across the region in very dynamic fashion had much of the city at a virtual standstill. I was living in Traverse at the time and we'd had a blah season to that point so I wasn't too happy, lol.  

I'm glad i wasn't alive for the 72 season and witnessed bay city get 2 feet while myself 80 or so miles to the SE got slop lol.

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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'm glad i wasn't alive for the 72 season and witnessed bay city get 2 feet while myself 80 or so miles to the SE got slop lol.

As @michsnowfreak posted, it wasn't a complete whiff for Detroit. Even the city reported 5" depth, and Pontiac was 10". But it was one of those shoulder season systems just cold enough to snow, and a week later only piles remained. Jackson and the Tri-Cities regions were both epicenters and no doubt memorable similar to my own April '75 Big Dog experience. 

image.png.d9acc6f402d4fbf7ef855fb4ea52aff9.png

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