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Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion


michsnowfreak
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19 minutes ago, Lightning said:

1982-83 was brutal.  I remember hating that winter so much as a kid.  The brown grass winter!!

If I recall correctly a late snow (March or early April) prevented Detroit from breaking the low snowfall record.  Not sure but I just remembering not to want to ever remember that winter.. :lol:

Two late snows. March 21 & April 17

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). 

Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover &  Nashville averages 6 days.

 

For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days.

 

Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days

10 days - 1936-37

11 days - 1931-32

12 days - 1918-19

15 days - 1982-83

16 days - 1952-53

 

Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days

96 days - 2013-14

91 days - 1977-78

89 days - 1947-48

89 days - 1981-82

86 days - 1966-67

 

Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall

15 days - 1889-90

17 days - 1918-19

17 days - 1881-82

18 days - 1982-83

18 days - 1948-49


Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall

62 days - 1925-26

61 days - 1884-85

56 days - 2013-14

52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86

 

Wowza at the minimum lists across. the. board. 

4 of 5 top snowcover winters during my lifetime. Never knew about 47-48 tbh. My folks had their 1st house on Panama St. in Warren then and I don't remember them ever mentioning a "harsh winter" before moving north to Genesee Cnty.

Surprised 1981-82 didn't make the list for frequent snowfalls. It was my first winter driving and it seemed to snow every other day where I was near KFNT.   

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7 hours ago, Lightning said:

1982-83 was brutal.  I remember hating that winter so much as a kid.  The brown grass winter!!

If I recall correctly a late snow (March or early April) prevented Detroit from breaking the low snowfall record.  Not sure but I just remembering not to want to ever remember that winter.. :lol:

Especially right on the heels of 81-82 which rocked in all 3 categories - Snow/Snow cover/temps. 

I'd taken the year off between HS and college to get more skiing time, and had bought a snowmobile as well. Thought I'd do a lot of both before locking-down serious as I was a year younger than most in my grade. Well, what a waste of time that plan turned out to be. TWC was a new novelty on cable back then and I remember how pissed I was watching Denver getting buried by the Christmas blizzard while we looked out at snowless and brown ground. I was in eastern Genesee Cnty in Davison btw

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8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). 

Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover &  Nashville averages 6 days.

 

For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days.

 

Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days

10 days - 1936-37

11 days - 1931-32

12 days - 1918-19

15 days - 1982-83

16 days - 1952-53

 

Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days

96 days - 2013-14

91 days - 1977-78

89 days - 1947-48

89 days - 1981-82

86 days - 1966-67

 

Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall

15 days - 1889-90

17 days - 1918-19

17 days - 1881-82

18 days - 1982-83

18 days - 1948-49


Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall

62 days - 1925-26

61 days - 1884-85

56 days - 2013-14

52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86

 

I’m a bit surprised at the record for days with 1” snowcover. I would have thought Detroit had a few winter with over 100 days.  
 

Posting stats for Minneapolis as a comparison and humble brag for last winter. 

8D54C25E-906A-40C7-8663-381C01E7880D.jpeg

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, that spring equinox storm was a legit 10" in Genesee Cnty (NE part). Saved a complete dumpster fire winter. Chucked a bone for sure. 

I both loved and hated that storm.  I was really hoping to break the futility record only to be squashed by an extremely beautiful cake storm.  I think I may even have pictures of it (finding them might be tricky :yikes:).

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My take from my modelling method is suggesting a seasonable to warmer 1st half of Dec with the 2nd half being seasonable to colder. Most of Jan will be seasonable to warmer with the last week turning colder. Most of Feb looks seasonable to colder with the last week being warmer. Even March looks like a decent flux from week to week. This should keep things interesting. :) 

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29 minutes ago, Brian D said:

My take from my modelling method is suggesting a seasonable to warmer 1st half of Dec with the 2nd half being seasonable to colder. Most of Jan will be seasonable to warmer with the last week turning colder. Most of Feb looks seasonable to colder with the last week being warmer. Even March looks like a decent flux from week to week. This should keep things interesting. :) 

Warm enough to keep it liquid thru December and most of Jan?

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4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Warm enough to keep it liquid thru December and most of Jan?

There are some posters in this sub forum that seem to be delusional about their climo and you win top prize for that. Actually I’m sure your act is more about trying to get people riled up than not understanding climo. The hard work it would take to grow palm trees in Wisconsin does make me wonder though. lol

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37 minutes ago, roardog said:

There are some posters in this sub forum that seem to be delusional about their climo and you win top prize for that. Actually I’m sure your act is more about trying to get people riled up than not understanding climo. The hard work it would take to grow palm trees in Wisconsin does make me wonder though. lol

Growing palm trees in Wisconsin is actually pretty easy.  I've done it for over a decade.  And I had bare ground and green grass for almost the entire winter last year.

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16 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Wowza at the minimum lists across. the. board. 

4 of 5 top snowcover winters during my lifetime. Never knew about 47-48 tbh. My folks had their 1st house on Panama St. in Warren then and I don't remember them ever mentioning a "harsh winter" before moving north to Genesee Cnty.

Surprised 1981-82 didn't make the list for frequent snowfalls. It was my first winter driving and it seemed to snow every other day where I was near KFNT.   

The snowcover records date to the turn of the 20th century. I dont have data for the 1870s-1906 or so. Winters that likely would have made the top 5s for snowcover I have estimated: 1880-81 (top 5 whitest), 1881-82 (top 5 barest), 1889-90 (top 5 barest), 1903-04 (top 5 whitest). 

 

1981-82 was above average with 47 days of measurable snow, but not near the top.

 

1947-48 was an interesting winter in that it was cold and void of any heavy snowfall, but white. The total snowfall the entire season was 28.4" with a peak depth of 5". However it remained white. There was a historic and crippling ice storm on Jan 1-2 which likely froze the snowpack in place. As was always the case back in the sh*t winter stretch from the 1930s-50s, whenever youd get a harsh winter, the next one was putrid (1948-49 was horrible). 

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1 hour ago, roardog said:

There are some posters in this sub forum that seem to be delusional about their climo and you win top prize for that. Actually I’m sure your act is more about trying to get people riled up than not understanding climo. The hard work it would take to grow palm trees in Wisconsin does make me wonder though. lol

Its all a tired act.

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16 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m a bit surprised at the record for days with 1” snowcover. I would have thought Detroit had a few winter with over 100 days.  
 

Posting stats for Minneapolis as a comparison and humble brag for last winter. 

8D54C25E-906A-40C7-8663-381C01E7880D.jpeg

Thaws usually ruin those odds, although you add in the trace days and you get more. Again, those days include either a dusting of fresh snow (on previous bare ground) or the even more popular days where the snowcover has gotten patchy. Unfortunately you wont find that in xmacis, so youd have to have a full collection of the data and do the stats yourself lol. Xmacis shows the T data, but theres no way to compute it into streaks of any kind.

 

The top 5 winters with most days with T+ snowcover at Detroit.

121 days - 1977-78

119 days - 1925-26

118 days - 1976-77

117 days - 2013-14

116 days - 1958-59

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45 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Even seasonable temps can produce snow down that way I'm sure, along with wrap around as the front moves through, and temps drop. So I guess we shall see.

His question was not serious, he knows better. The monthly temperature departures can be way above average and the southern Great Lakes will still see snow. 

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Even seasonable temps can produce snow down that way I'm sure, along with wrap around as the front moves through, and temps drop. So I guess we shall see.

Seasonable temps are above freezing until end of December.  So any slight above plus warm lake influence will be rainers here.

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32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

His question was not serious, he knows better. The monthly temperature departures can be way above average and the southern Great Lakes will still see snow. 

The average high for MKE doesn't dip much below 32 even in the heart of winter.  You have this false misconception that this is a true winter climate.  We are borderline at best.  Snowmobile trails locally haven't opened in the last three years.

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22 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Seasonable temps are above freezing until end of December.  So any slight above plus warm lake influence will be rainers here.

The month could be +15 and there could still be a blizzard. All it takes is a cold day or two in a “warm” month of December to get snow. 

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Just now, hardypalmguy said:

and then it's gone the next day.  fine by me.  melt it.

Yeah but the point is that December, January and February could all be record warm months overall in Milwaukee and it could and probably would snow some in all 3 of those months. So, it’s impossible for Brian to answer your original question. 

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3 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

arctic is warming faster than here by far.  still getting above freezing in barrow alaska.

They haven’t been above freezing in at least the last 3 days and the highest forecasted temp there this week is 33. Their normal high is 28, so it only has to be 5 degrees above normal to be above freezing. 

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