michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 3:52 PM, RogueWaves said: 21-22 gave us back-to-back clipper hits twice. In late November and later January as well. Nov 27th was actually my largest single day amount the entire winter at 4.2". The clippers were far and away the better systems for me that winter from a forecast to verify perspective. Expand Yes, I remember that as well. keep in mind, we still see clippers every winter. Just not as many as we used to. As long as we get more snow in the end it's all good though lol. Don't forget about February 1-2, 2022 and then again February 17, 2022. How on earth you did not get over 4 inches then I have no idea lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 On 11/17/2023 at 4:40 PM, michsnowfreak said: Yes, I remember that as well. keep in mind, we still see clippers every winter. Just not as many as we used to. As long as we get more snow in the end it's all good though lol. Don't forget about February 1-2, 2022 and then again February 17, 2022. How on earth you did not get over 4 inches then I have no idea lol. Expand I did. Look closer, the 4.2" was my largest single day total. Early February was 5.6" for two days. The 17th was just 4" and there are other reports and maps to back up those sad numbers here. Thx for the reminder tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 Genuine question for the well-informed among us. What determines whether next weekend's system -that I'm sure we're all quietly observing- blows up into something decent or shits itself out across the central US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Recent systems (except sneaky one on 11/8) have all fizzled out as they came this way, fwiw. I am watching this Tue-Wed S Stream system in hopes it actually has legs and doesn't crap-out. Would boost my hopes for winter a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 On 11/18/2023 at 6:54 PM, Malacka11 said: Genuine question for the well-informed among us. What determines whether next weekend's system -that I'm sure we're all quietly observing- blows up into something decent or shits itself out across the central US? Expand On 11/19/2023 at 1:24 AM, RogueWaves said: Recent systems (except sneaky one on 11/8) have all fizzled out as they came this way, fwiw. I am watching this Tue-Wed S Stream system in hopes it actually has legs and doesn't crap-out. Would boost my hopes for winter a bit. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 as they say....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 12:48 PM, Baum said: as they say....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Expand Let WAD with small intervals of CAD commence. Consider core of winter from Dec1st-March 10th for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 2:09 PM, Cary67 said: Let WAD with small intervals of CAD commence. Consider core of winter from February 1st-March 10th for our area. Expand FYP. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said: From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. Expand December will disappoint you in the Great Lakes if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said: From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. Expand so we can skip the December thread this year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 8:24 PM, Baum said: so we can skip the December thread this year? Expand Dec '14 incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:08 PM, RogueWaves said: Dec '14 incoming Expand Bite your tongue (unless Jan-Feb 2015 follow) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:08 PM, RogueWaves said: Dec '14 incoming Expand El nino years many times do have a good start in December but by Christmas it's game over. Per NOAA:"El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. " and so might the winter of '23-'24. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:44 PM, Baum said: El nino years many times do have a good start in December but by Christmas it's game over. Per NOAA:"El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. " and so might the winter of '23-'24. Expand This year isn't behaving like a usual nino anyway. Let's take things one step at a time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:51 PM, michsnowfreak said: This year isn't behaving like a usual nino anyway. Let's take things one step at a time Expand agreed. trends are made to be broken. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 8:24 PM, Baum said: so we can skip the December thread this year? Expand Next month is shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 12:16 AM, Spartman said: Next month is shot Expand Based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:57 PM, Baum said: agreed. trends are made to be broken. Expand From my post on another forum Quote Actually, strong Nino's tend to have winter up til Christmas, then it vanishes for a couple months during the heart of winter. The record breaking storm in Nov 2015 is a classic example. Expand Not sure 15-16 was the best example to use, but it just came to mind quickly. It wasn't as bad for some of us as say 97-98 which might be the most classic example. I was having basically this same discussion with a poster from NWI where they've had a very slow start and he had posted how NWS Green Bay said "yep it looks like Nino's in full effect already". As @michsnowfreaknoted, it's actually NOT acting very Nino-like aside from the freak Halloween clipper thingy. I like the current system. Basically the same S Stream track that treated DTW favorably last winter. We just need cold air. Temps were so marginal with every event last year. Maybe this gets colder JFM and acts more like a Nina. As long as it doesn't mimic 11-12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 12:18 AM, RogueWaves said: From my post on another forum Not sure 15-16 was the best example to use, but it just came to mind quickly. It wasn't as bad for some of us as say 97-98 which might be the most classic example. I was having basically this same discussion with a poster from NWI where they've had a very slow start and he had posted how NWS Green Bay said "yep it looks like Nino's in full effect already". As @michsnowfreaknoted, it's actually NOT acting very Nino-like aside from the freak Halloween clipper thingy. I like the current system. Basically the same S Stream track that treated DTW favorably last winter. We just need cold air. Temps were so marginal with every event last year. Maybe this gets colder JFM and acts more like a Nina. As long as it doesn't mimic 11-12 Expand If I had to pick the absolute worst winter to experience here all things considered, it would likely be 1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19. Not sure if any were ninos. I would say 1982-83 was worse than 1997-98, and both were worse than 2015-16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 No one here knows what next month is going to hold, we can't even get a week out forecast right. 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 1:06 AM, Stebo said: No one here knows what next month is going to hold, we can't even get a week out forecast right. Expand There will be periods of sun, clouds and precipitation. Temperatures will range on both sides of freezing. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 1:06 AM, Stebo said: No one here knows what next month is going to hold, we can't even get a week out forecast right. Expand thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 12:16 AM, Spartman said: Next month is shot Expand sure is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said: From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. Expand Starting a sentence with from the new England forum is like using wikipedia as a source/reference for a research paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2023 Author Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/21/2023 at 3:42 PM, Stevo6899 said: Starting a sentence with from the new England forum is like using wikipedia as a source/reference for a research paper. Expand To be fair they actually do give reasoning many times though. It's a lot more than some here do. Like stebo said, absolutely no way to know what December in its entirety will bring. But I'd bet on something changeable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said: From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. Expand Interesting. That looks similar to what I said about Dec. 1st days a little colder, then seasonable/milder back seasonable/colder 2nd half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Globals picking up on a dusting to an inch moving through the area Sunday. Lake effect possible in the usual belts next week. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Things are looking CAD with a few stretchers of WAD mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 On 11/20/2023 at 10:08 PM, RogueWaves said: Dec '14 incoming Expand Looks like December kicks off the way December 2014 started. December 2014 was not only the least snowiest December on record, but one of the cloudiest ones for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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