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Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion


michsnowfreak
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  On 11/17/2023 at 3:52 PM, RogueWaves said:

21-22 gave us back-to-back clipper hits twice. In late November and later January as well. Nov 27th was actually my largest single day amount the entire winter at 4.2". The clippers were far and away the better systems for me that winter from a forecast to verify perspective. 

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Yes, I remember that as well. keep in mind, we still see clippers every winter. Just not as many as we used to. As long as we get more snow in the end it's all good though lol. 

Don't forget about February 1-2, 2022 and then again February 17, 2022. How on earth you did not get over 4 inches then I have no idea lol.

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  On 11/17/2023 at 4:40 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, I remember that as well. keep in mind, we still see clippers every winter. Just not as many as we used to. As long as we get more snow in the end it's all good though lol. 

Don't forget about February 1-2, 2022 and then again February 17, 2022. How on earth you did not get over 4 inches then I have no idea lol.

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I did. Look closer, the 4.2" was my largest single day total. Early February was 5.6" for two days. The 17th was just 4" and there are other reports and maps to back up those sad numbers here. Thx for the reminder tho.

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  On 11/18/2023 at 6:54 PM, Malacka11 said:

Genuine question for the well-informed among us. What determines whether next weekend's system -that I'm sure we're all quietly observing- blows up into something decent or shits itself out across the central US?

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  On 11/19/2023 at 1:24 AM, RogueWaves said:

Recent systems (except sneaky one on 11/8) have all fizzled out as they came this way, fwiw. I am watching this Tue-Wed S Stream system in hopes it actually has legs and doesn't crap-out. Would boost my hopes for winter a bit. 

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  On 11/20/2023 at 10:08 PM, RogueWaves said:

Dec '14 incoming

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El nino years many times do have a good start in December but by Christmas it's game over. Per NOAA:"El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. "

 

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and so might the winter of '23-'24.

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  On 11/20/2023 at 10:44 PM, Baum said:

El nino years many times do have a good start in December but by Christmas it's game over. Per NOAA:"El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. "

 

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and so might the winter of '23-'24.

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This year isn't behaving like a usual nino anyway. Let's take things one step at a time:lol:

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  On 11/20/2023 at 10:57 PM, Baum said:

agreed. trends are made to be broken.

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From my post on another forum

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Actually, strong Nino's tend to have winter up til Christmas, then it vanishes for a couple months during the heart of winter. The record breaking storm in Nov 2015 is a classic example.

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Not sure 15-16 was the best example to use, but it just came to mind quickly. It wasn't as bad for some of us as say 97-98 which might be the most classic example. I was having basically this same discussion with a poster from NWI where they've had a very slow start and he had posted how NWS Green Bay said "yep it looks like Nino's in full effect already". As @michsnowfreaknoted, it's actually NOT acting very Nino-like aside from the freak Halloween clipper thingy. 

I like the current system. Basically the same S Stream track that treated DTW favorably last winter. We just need cold air. Temps were so marginal with every event last year. Maybe this gets colder JFM and acts more like a Nina. As long as it doesn't mimic 11-12

 

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  On 11/21/2023 at 12:18 AM, RogueWaves said:

From my post on another forum

Not sure 15-16 was the best example to use, but it just came to mind quickly. It wasn't as bad for some of us as say 97-98 which might be the most classic example. I was having basically this same discussion with a poster from NWI where they've had a very slow start and he had posted how NWS Green Bay said "yep it looks like Nino's in full effect already". As @michsnowfreaknoted, it's actually NOT acting very Nino-like aside from the freak Halloween clipper thingy. 

I like the current system. Basically the same S Stream track that treated DTW favorably last winter. We just need cold air. Temps were so marginal with every event last year. Maybe this gets colder JFM and acts more like a Nina. As long as it doesn't mimic 11-12

 

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If I had to pick the absolute worst winter to experience here all things considered, it would likely be 1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19. Not sure if any were ninos. I would say 1982-83 was worse than 1997-98, and both were worse than 2015-16.

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  On 11/21/2023 at 3:42 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Starting a sentence with from the new England forum is like using wikipedia as a source/reference for a research paper. 

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To be fair they actually do give reasoning many times though. It's a lot more than some here do. Like stebo said, absolutely no way to know what December in its entirety will bring. But I'd bet on something changeable. 

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  On 11/20/2023 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said:

From the new England forum, it appears December starts cold before a few weeks flip to milder then colder and stormier towards Christmas. 

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Interesting. That looks similar to what I said about Dec. 1st days a little colder, then seasonable/milder back seasonable/colder 2nd half.

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