Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion

[SconnieTransplant]

On 11/12/2023 at 9:27 AM, RogueWaves said:

Let's just do this!

My home - in the Keweenaw Peninsula in the UP - isn't even shown on these maps   

[RogueWaves]

7 hours ago, SconnieTransplant said:

My home - in the Keweenaw Peninsula in the UP - isn't even shown on these maps   

I don't think you have to sweat it. Was there ever a year without winter up there?

[Lightning]

16 hours ago, SconnieTransplant said:

My home - in the Keweenaw Peninsula in the UP - isn't even shown on these maps   

When I was at MTU (late 80s and early 90s), The Weather Channel had maps which the Keweenaw was not on there.  

I have also seen maps with MI part of Canada with some of these "Winter Forecasts" on YouTube.   

[A-L-E-K]

CAD sigh

[michsnowfreak]

Looking wintry around Thanksgiving!

[mississaugasnow]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Looking wintry around Thanksgiving!

Yep, and could last a while 

[Chambana]

Give me a Christmas snowstorm and I’m  happy. We are in strong Nino territory, so who knows. 

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep, and could last a while 

MJO liking colder phases. It's the "D" in CAD that remains to be seen. 

[Chicago Storm]

Looking wintry around Thanksgiving!

That’s likely a bit too early, but after that quite possibly.

[michsnowfreak]

The cold is coming for sure. But any snow/storm threats will be model chaos. Let winter 2023-24 begin! 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Lock 

It 

In

[Chinook]

Shown below are GFS ensemble members SLP/precip for two different hours well into the future. A strong jet stream will dive through the Rockies. There will be new trough and surface low in the southern Plains. The low pressure will lift northward to the GL/OV, but details on the SLP or rain coverage could change a lot. A few ensembles have snow for Chicago. At this time, almost no GFS ensemble members have over 2" for Chicago, and of course there's not much agreement on snow for the Upper Midwest. In my recent experiences, the surface temperature here is usually about 5 degrees above what the NWS forecasts a few days out. Maybe it's just the drought and warmer airmasses are a little stronger than the GFS thinks.

 

[Brian D]

It'll be nice to have some colder wx. Force the trolls back into their caves. Hope a large Beaufort Gyre freshwater release happens soon into the N Atl. That'll keep them hibernating for a few years. LOL Don't get me wrong, I fall in the lukewarmer camp, I just shake my head at "chicken little" nonsense. So that means I believe we will oscillate on a slowly warming trend. But the geo-political situation continues to devolve, so, much more weighty matters are in our face, and could be for many years to come. This verse comes to mind " they shall cry 'Peace, and safety', then sudden destruction shall come". And of course, a massive solar event could put us back into the stone age in just one day, too. CC is just not that high on the list of "OMG's" considering the wars/plagues/natural disasters of history that can easily happen again with much more devastating effects. We can adapt much easier to CC, than if other stuff happens.

Alright, enough of that. Hopefully the rest of you will stop with CC stuff, and get back to the topic of this thread, and other threads.

I mentioned in an earlier post about my feel for winter, and I said it looked like the 1st half of Dec was going to fall into the seasonable to warmer camp. Still holding to that, except the first couple days could be on the colder side. Back in the Oct thread, I mentioned the seasonable to warmer conditions for the 2nd half of Oct - 1st half of Nov. The late Oct into the 1st days of Nov snap was a bit more aggressive than I anticipated. I never mentioned the 2nd half of Nov, which has a more seasonable to colder feel. And that looks to bleed into the 1st days of Dec. Seasonable can mean slightly warmer/cooler than avg. Aprox +/-5dF of avg is usual fare on a daily basis for seasonable wx.

[RCNYILWX]

Will be back posting more regularly in here soon.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

Ready 2 b buried

[King James]

Brian D the most real one on this forum. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Brian D said:

It'll be nice to have some colder wx. Force the trolls back into their caves. Hope a large Beaufort Gyre freshwater release happens soon into the N Atl. That'll keep them hibernating for a few years. LOL Don't get me wrong, I fall in the lukewarmer camp, I just shake my head at "chicken little" nonsense. So that means I believe we will oscillate on a slowly warming trend. But the geo-political situation continues to devolve, so, much more weighty matters are in our face, and could be for many years to come. This verse comes to mind " they shall cry 'Peace, and safety', then sudden destruction shall come". And of course, a massive solar event could put us back into the stone age in just one day, too. CC is just not that high on the list of "OMG's" considering the wars/plagues/natural disasters of history that can easily happen again with much more devastating effects. We can adapt much easier to CC, than if other stuff happens.

Alright, enough of that. Hopefully the rest of you will stop with CC stuff, and get back to the topic of this thread, and other threads.

I mentioned in an earlier post about my feel for winter, and I said it looked like the 1st half of Dec was going to fall into the seasonable to warmer camp. Still holding to that, except the first couple days could be on the colder side. Back in the Oct thread, I mentioned the seasonable to warmer conditions for the 2nd half of Oct - 1st half of Nov. The late Oct into the 1st days of Nov snap was a bit more aggressive than I anticipated. I never mentioned the 2nd half of Nov, which has a more seasonable to colder feel. And that looks to bleed into the 1st days of Dec. Seasonable can mean slightly warmer/cooler than avg. Aprox +/-5dF of avg is usual fare on a daily basis for seasonable wx.

I definitely won't be participating in that nonsense anymore. I've said my piece. I will, however, continue to engage in weather and weather stats talk. That's my wheelhouse. 

 

I've noticed a lot of people are thinking that February once again (last year notwithstanding) will be the most severe month of the winter. How do you feel about that? Not sure how much of standard nino climo plays into that. I've been reading that many indicies are not behaving like a typical nino.

[Brian D]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I definitely won't be participating in that nonsense anymore. I've said my piece. I will, however, continue to engage in weather and weather stats talk. That's my wheelhouse. 

 

I've noticed a lot of people are thinking that February once again (last year notwithstanding) will be the most severe month of the winter. How do you feel about that? Not sure how much of standard nino climo plays into that. I've been reading that many indicies are not behaving like a typical nino.

I mentioned Feb looking seasonable to colder most of the month. Seems we have seen a few more of those types in recent years than warmer. Jan has the opposite feel. Doesn't mean there can't be a quick snap, tho.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Brian D said:

I mentioned Feb looking seasonable to colder most of the month. Seems we have seen a few more of those types in recent years than warmer. Jan has the opposite feel. Doesn't mean there can't be a quick snap, tho.

Thanks. And yes for sure. Monthly temp departures in mid winter mean little for snow chances, just have to get the systems/storms. 

[buckeye]

18 hours ago, Brian D said:

It'll be nice to have some colder wx. Force the trolls back into their caves. Hope a large Beaufort Gyre freshwater release happens soon into the N Atl. That'll keep them hibernating for a few years. LOL Don't get me wrong, I fall in the lukewarmer camp, I just shake my head at "chicken little" nonsense. So that means I believe we will oscillate on a slowly warming trend. But the geo-political situation continues to devolve, so, much more weighty matters are in our face, and could be for many years to come. This verse comes to mind " they shall cry 'Peace, and safety', then sudden destruction shall come". And of course, a massive solar event could put us back into the stone age in just one day, too. CC is just not that high on the list of "OMG's" considering the wars/plagues/natural disasters of history that can easily happen again with much more devastating effects. We can adapt much easier to CC, than if other stuff happens.

....

there's nothing like a boost of optimism with my morning coffee

[RCNYILWX]

Since 2009-10 is the only moderate to strong Niño winter since 1950 with above normal snow across the LOT CWA, not particularly optimistic for a snowy winter locally. That winter was a highly west based El Niño that peaked at 1.5 ONI and it had record strong AO/NAO blocking.

The issue for us is that in means, El Niños are more conducive to +PNA, so that when it does get cold, you have more of a CAD or clippers vibe vs. moisture laden systems. Need to cash in if you do get a good southern stream wave or two. 2015 had the November 22nd system and most of the metro *just missed* on the late Feb event that slammed the south suburbs and especially northwest Indiana.

I think if an element is going to diverge from the pre-season expectations (mild, and below average precip and snow), it'll be temperatures, especially if we get some good periods of blocking assuming the SPV isn't too strong (which appears possible in a -QBO/-PDO). Overall, outside of the super Niños (>2.0 ONI), the data is much more of a mixed bag for temps in moderate to strong Niños (1-2 range in the ONI).

The challenge with temps is that if snow ends up on the low side, need favorably timed snow cover leading into cold snaps to get good periods of negative anomalies. For this reason, I'd still lean toward temps ending up above normal.

Given the crappy winter we had last winter, here's hoping for an unlikely 2009-10 like outcome to this winter.

[Stebo]

11 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Since 2009-10 is the only moderate to strong Niño winter since 1950 with above normal snow across the LOT CWA, not particularly optimistic for a snowy winter locally. That winter was a highly west based El Niño that peaked at 1.5 ONI and it had record strong AO/NAO blocking.

The issue for us is that in means, El Niños are more conducive to +PNA, so that when it does get cold, you have more of a CAD or clippers vibe vs. moisture laden systems. Need to cash in if you do get a good southern stream wave or two. 2015 had the November 22nd system and most of the metro *just missed* on the late Feb event that slammed the south suburbs and especially northwest Indiana.

I think if an element is going to diverge from the pre-season expectations (mild, and below average precip and snow), it'll be temperatures, especially if we get some good periods of blocking assuming the SPV isn't too strong (which appears possible in a -QBO/-PDO). Overall, outside of the super Niños (>2.0 ONI), the data is much more of a mixed bag for temps in moderate to strong Niños (1-2 range in the ONI).

The challenge with temps is that if snow ends up on the low side, need favorably timed snow cover leading into cold snaps to get good periods of negative anomalies. For this reason, I'd still lean toward temps ending up above normal.

Given the crappy winter we had last winter, here's hoping for an unlikely 2009-10 like outcome to this winter.


 

With the source region for the clippers having been so dry as well, I don't know if we will get much from them either especially if they are starting off quite moisture starved.

[cyclone77]

Seems like clippers have been MIA for many seasons now.  Seems like it at least out here in the western sub.

[A-L-E-K]

extinct

[Stebo]

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Seems like clippers have been MIA for many seasons now.  Seems like it at least out here in the western sub.

This as well, if we are hoping upon them we might be in for disappointment.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This as well, if we are hoping upon them we might be in for disappointment.

We have gotten some, but they definitely have been less than years ago. The 1980s-90s were clipper heyday. Funny thing about the 1990s is that the 21st century has been much snowier but with noticeably less clippers.

[WestMichigan]

Clippers are generally good given the right track.  We get some lake assist on the front end with the SW wind then LES on the back side.  Muskegon does better but they can be pretty good here.

[RCNYILWX]

We have gotten some, but they definitely have been less than years ago. The 1980s-90s were clipper heyday. Funny thing about the 1990s is that the 21st century has been much snowier but with noticeably less clippers.

Your last good clipper season was 2017 if I recall right. I remember there were some good ones in December that hit WI and MI.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Your last good clipper season was 2017 if I recall right. I remember there were some good ones in December that hit WI and MI.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Yes. That was a good clipper season for sure.

[RogueWaves]

21-22 gave us back-to-back clipper hits twice. In late November and later January as well. Nov 27th was actually my largest single day amount the entire winter at 4.2". The clippers were far and away the better systems for me that winter from a forecast to verify perspective.