Winter 2023-24 Longrange Discussion

[Lightning]

7 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea as soon as I posted earlier today, I recalled a snowstorm we had around Nov 20, at least 6+ years ago. 2-4 was forecasted, 8-12 fell and I don't think we had another 6+ snowfall the rest of that winter. It's weird how history repeats itself when it comes to notable events.

November 21st, 2015.  Incredible storm IMBY.  Stayed around until Thanksgiving day when the warmth moved in.  December version of Morch occurred with +12F departure.  After this things split the Detroit area.   MBY and Flint area had above average snowfall each month from January through April 2016 (i.e. only December was below average with snow).  While south in the metro Detroit area, it was not so good.  Overall it was an extremely warm winter (last winter was cooler).  Flint recorded 80F in early November 2015.

[michsnowfreak]

On 10/11/2023 at 4:44 PM, Stebo said:

I think we can all agree its time to take out the trash here.

I am here to discuss weather. Im fine with some OT, but the endless trolling combined with adding nothing legit to the conversation is pointless. I enjoy firing back at all of his laughable posts with data, but ive already tired of it . When MKE hits 40F on a winter day and you get 17 posts about how in 20 years their average January high will be 80F, it has jumped the shark. We have no one that will ban him as he would be in any other subforum, so I am doing the next best thing, putting him on ignore so all his posts are blocked.

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

While we have had warm winters lately and I have been living in Florida for them, I am back living in Michigan to take care of my parents and ready for a cold/snowy November. Per our climate, its normal to have to wait until early/mid December for a good snowstorm. I'm hoping we can switch and get into winter quickly. I just went for a bike ride and man what a shock to the system to go from 94/humid to 55 and dry. The sun sure does still feel good. I wonder what's more likely, a early November snowstorm, or the lions hosting a playoff game...

We have actually had quite a few cold and snowy Novembers the last decade. Some of it is superstition, but a more recent trend is that you WANT the snow to hold off until December for the sake of a better winter. 

[Powerball]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We have actually had quite a few cold and snowy Novembers the last decade. Some of it is superstition, but a more recent trend is that you WANT the snow to hold off until December for the sake of a better winter. 

 

I was going to ask you aboutt that and I'm glad you addressed it, because I figured (and I recall you saying in the past) there wasn't the greatest correlation historically between November weather and how winters end up.

Definitely gotta be careful with putting too much weight on any recent trends.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Lightning said:

November 21st, 2015.  Incredible storm IMBY.  Stayed around until Thanksgiving day when the warmth moved in.  December version of Morch occurred with +12F departure.  After this things split the Detroit area.   MBY and Flint area had above average snowfall each month from January through April 2016 (i.e. only December was below average with snow).  While south in the metro Detroit area, it was not so good.  Overall it was an extremely warm winter (last winter was cooler).  Flint recorded 80F in early November 2015.

2015-16 definitely had a big north-south gradient, although it wasnt a terrible winter outside of December. The Nov 21 snowstorm was gorgeous, but the Nov 11, 2019 snowstorm takes the cake here. It was incredible. In both cases, those would be the biggest storms of the winter (altho each winter had some more decent snows). 

 

As we have seen time and time again, in the end, temp departures dont necessarily matter for total snowfall. You can have more snow in a winter with a +6F departure than you do with a -3F departure. Its all a crapshoot. Colder winters matter for us snowcover folks. Of course some years the cold winters match the cold/snowy narrative (hello severest winter on record, 2013-14) and the warm winters match the low snow (2011-12, yuck), but sometimes they dont.

 

I am not feeling a warm winter this year. The latest model consensus of the 8 seasonal models (NMME) is a DJF departure of less than a degree warmer than avg. If it was going to be a really mild winter there would be more of a signal. A lot of models seem to be in consensus that the early part of winter will be milder than the latter part. Im more worried about what the precip patterns will be than what the temps will be. Regardless, lets enjoy Fall and winter is almost here!

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

I was going to ask you aboutt that and I'm glad you addressed it, because I figured (and I recall you saying in the past) there wasn't the greatest correlation historically between November weather and how winters end up.

Definitely gotta be careful with putting too much weight on any recent trends.

With 150 years of weather data, good luck finding ANYTHING that matches a "slam dunk" scenario. But I always think its funny that the old "the weather in November the winter will remember" saying is often SO wrong. It goes both ways.

[hardypalmguy]

2015-16 definitely had a big north-south gradient, although it wasnt a terrible winter outside of December. The Nov 21 snowstorm was gorgeous, but the Nov 11, 2019 snowstorm takes the cake here. It was incredible. In both cases, those would be the biggest storms of the winter (altho each winter had some more decent snows). 
 
As we have seen time and time again, in the end, temp departures dont necessarily matter for total snowfall. You can have more snow in a winter with a +6F departure than you do with a -3F departure. Its all a crapshoot. Colder winters matter for us snowcover folks. Of course some years the cold winters match the cold/snowy narrative (hello severest winter on record, 2013-14) and the warm winters match the low snow (2011-12, yuck), but sometimes they dont.
 
I am not feeling a warm winter this year. The latest model consensus of the 8 seasonal models (NMME) is a DJF departure of less than a degree warmer than avg. If it was going to be a really mild winter there would be more of a signal. A lot of models seem to be in consensus that the early part of winter will be milder than the latter part. Im more worried about what the precip patterns will be than what the temps will be. Regardless, lets enjoy Fall and winter is almost here!

Come on man. All signs are pointing to a warm winter.

[WestMichigan]

43 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Come on man. All signs are pointing to a warm winter.

Show you confidence in this, leave your palms out.

[hardypalmguy]

Show you confidence in this, leave your palms out.

I’ve already posted evidence. Plus I also include my own forecasting methods.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

I’ve already posted evidence. Plus I also include my own forecasting methods.

Spamming the board with images of the shitty CFS model isn't very scientific of a forecast method.

Just saying...

[hardypalmguy]

Spamming the board with images of the shitty CFS model isn't very scientific of a forecast method.
Just saying...

Well bless your heart.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

Well bless your heart.

I have no dog in the fight either way, since I already live in a region where warm/snowless winters are all but guaranteed. I'm mostly here for the lulz.

Still, was just making an observation as a bystander who means no harm...

[hardypalmguy]

All signs are pointing to a failure to launch early cold season once again. Very below normal snow cover on both sides of poles and a very warm Canada right now. And I’m seeing signs of a repeat to January 2006 which was exceptionally warm. I’m just calling it as I see it and giving my thoughts as well.

If all signs showed an epic cold start etc etc etc and I was just playing opposite then I could see your point. The weenies here are wishcasting for cold every winter since 2014 and it has been failing to materialize.

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Come on man. All signs are pointing to a warm winter.

He can't see your posts anymore. Consider that a sign that you may be trolling too hard as me and josh have been going back and forth for years and he's never put me on ignore... that I know of.

While I do enjoy deep snow cover, and may be superstitious when it comes to getting a snowstorm on top of Snowcover, I'll take the warm swings and the risk of sleet if it means the potential for big snows. On the other side I don't mind arctic air if it leads to overachieving clippers, although when its below avg temp wise, clippers seem nonexistent nowadays with the bigger storms suppressed.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Spamming the board with images of the shitty CFS model isn't very scientific of a forecast method.

Just saying...

Cfs is run 4 times a day. Plenty of cold looks too. It changes like the gfs lol.

[Stebo]

I don't think its going to be a cold winter, I would lean warm, but that doesn't preclude a snowy winter at all. Way too many climo models are doing the base el nino without a single bit of thought or variance from it. Not all Ninos are the same though so the snow can be variable for the region. I would probably lean below normal off the lakes because of the warmer year but areas where synoptic snow happens 1 or 2 storms could make the year. It isn't going to be a consistent snow cover winter though, not only with el nino but we are just becoming less and less of a snow cover region. Yes I know there have been a couple recent years that were better than average but most recently have been below normal on snow cover.

[RogueWaves]

18 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea as soon as I posted earlier today, I recalled a snowstorm we had around Nov 20, at least 6+ years ago. 2-4 was forecasted, 8-12 fell and I don't think we had another 6+ snowfall the rest of that winter. It's weird how history repeats itself when it comes to notable events.

The pre-20th winter grinch was 11-11-19. Didn't even get a Warning (Thx GRR). 19-20 ended up being a dumpster fire

[Stevo6899]

44 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

The pre-20th winter grinch was 11-11-19. Didn't even get a Warning (Thx GRR). 19-20 ended up being a dumpster fire

I looked this storm up early after seeing Josh mention it and it looked like a good storm for alot of areas but I don't recall it. I kept a close eye on snowstorms while I was in florida too. I'll take a Halloween snowstorm for sure. All I remember is rainstorms while I was young trick or treating lol.

[mississaugasnow]

On 10/12/2023 at 5:38 PM, Stebo said:

Climatologically we don't want an early season snowfall if you want a good winter. After Nov 15th is when you want it to snow.

Personally I would trade all of JFM winter weather for a snowy November and December. Im not even saying big storms. Id rather 2-3" event in November over a 6-8" in March. 

 

[buckeye]

22 hours ago, Powerball said:

I have no dog in the fight either way, since I already live in a region where warm/snowless winters are all but guaranteed. I'm mostly here for the lulz.

Still, was just making an observation as a bystander who means no harm...

When did you move to Columbus?

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I looked this storm up early after seeing Josh mention it and it looked like a good storm for alot of areas but I don't recall it. I kept a close eye on snowstorms while I was in florida too. I'll take a Halloween snowstorm for sure. All I remember is rainstorms while I was young trick or treating lol.

It was quite a sight for so early in the season. The 9.2" at DTW is actually the largest November snowstorm on record, edging out 9.0" on Nov 15/16, 1932. Also, the snow stayed on the ground 10 days. Also, that was a very late leaf drop so some trees still had colorful leaves on them and it made beautiful scenes.

 

Photos from Nov 12, 2019.

 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Stebo said:

I don't think its going to be a cold winter, I would lean warm, but that doesn't preclude a snowy winter at all. Way too many climo models are doing the base el nino without a single bit of thought or variance from it. Not all Ninos are the same though so the snow can be variable for the region. I would probably lean below normal off the lakes because of the warmer year but areas where synoptic snow happens 1 or 2 storms could make the year. It isn't going to be a consistent snow cover winter though, not only with el nino but we are just becoming less and less of a snow cover region. Yes I know there have been a couple recent years that were better than average but most recently have been below normal on snow cover.

Agree on too much climo in the models these days, but thats why Im not leaning towards a warm winter (not saying its going to be cold). The seasonal model consensus is surprisingly tame (less than 1 degree F warmer than average), so imo with a nino in place, if I dont see the models torching thats a good sign.

 

I disagree on the "we are becoming less of a snowcover region". Its always been variable and we have never been the type of region to be snowcovered all winter, regardless of what the old fabled wives tales say about going uphill. Some winters are whiter than others, but when you average out every 10 years it stays relatively steady. Im a snowcover guy, but I know hoping for a 2013-14 or 1977-78 is unrealistic. Just can always hope lol. Thats why I laugh when people who DONT care about snowcover get so worried about temps. If all you care about is snowstorms and not their lasting impact, then it shouldnt matter whether the winter is forecast warm or cold at this latitude, it all depends on storm tracks.

 

Average Annual number of days with 1"+ snowcover per decade at Detroit

1920s- 51 days
1930s- 42 days
1940s- 49 days
1950s- 47 days
1960s- 57 days
1970s- 57 days
1980s- 47 days
1990s- 37 days
2000s- 51 days
2010s- 53 days
2020s- 46 days (thru 2022) 

1920-2022 avg: 49 days
 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was quite a sight for so early in the season. The 9.2" at DTW is actually the largest November snowstorm on record, edging out 9.0" on Nov 15/16, 1932. Also, the snow stayed on the ground 10 days. Also, that was a very late leaf drop so some trees still had colorful leaves on them and it made beautiful scenes.

 

Photos from Nov 12, 2019.

 

1st pic is October-December 11th

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree on too much climo in the models these days, but thats why Im not leaning towards a warm winter (not saying its going to be cold). The seasonal model consensus is surprisingly tame (less than 1 degree F warmer than average), so imo with a nino in place, if I dont see the models torching thats a good sign.

 

I disagree on the "we are becoming less of a snowcover region". Its always been variable and we have never been the type of region to be snowcovered all winter, regardless of what the old fabled wives tales say about going uphill. Some winters are whiter than others, but when you average out every 10 years it stays relatively steady. Im a snowcover guy, but I know hoping for a 2013-14 or 1977-78 is unrealistic. Just can always hope lol. Thats why I laugh when people who DONT care about snowcover get so worried about temps. If all you care about is snowstorms and not their lasting impact, then it shouldnt matter whether the winter is forecast warm or cold at this latitude, it all depends on storm tracks.

 

Average Annual number of days with 1"+ snowcover per decade at Detroit

1920s- 51 days
1930s- 42 days
1940s- 49 days
1950s- 47 days
1960s- 57 days
1970s- 57 days
1980s- 47 days
1990s- 37 days
2000s- 51 days
2010s- 53 days
2020s- 46 days (thru 2022) 

1920-2022 avg: 49 days
 

 Yep, that's why I'm hoping for another 81-82

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 Yep, that's why I'm hoping for another 81-82

What IS a realistic hope is for a good stretch of deep Winter in any given season. A snow season often spans six months between first and last flakes, so not unreasonable to get some deep Winter stretches.

[nwohweather]

On 10/13/2023 at 6:07 PM, Stebo said:

I don't think its going to be a cold winter, I would lean warm, but that doesn't preclude a snowy winter at all. Way too many climo models are doing the base el nino without a single bit of thought or variance from it. Not all Ninos are the same though so the snow can be variable for the region. I would probably lean below normal off the lakes because of the warmer year but areas where synoptic snow happens 1 or 2 storms could make the year. It isn't going to be a consistent snow cover winter though, not only with el nino but we are just becoming less and less of a snow cover region. Yes I know there have been a couple recent years that were better than average but most recently have been below normal on snow cover.

I think also many of our perceptions are skewed on what a true winter should be because of how many heavy snow winters we’ve had this century.

Toledo’s had the 1st, 3rd and 5th snowiest January’s; 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th snowiest February’s. While we’ve only had a few bitterly cold winters, it all comes down to an active pattern in those two months

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

lol

[SolidIcewx]

On 10/14/2023 at 4:55 PM, michsnowfreak said:

It was quite a sight for so early in the season. The 9.2" at DTW is actually the largest November snowstorm on record, edging out 9.0" on Nov 15/16, 1932. Also, the snow stayed on the ground 10 days. Also, that was a very late leaf drop so some trees still had colorful leaves on them and it made beautiful scenes.

 

Photos from Nov 12, 2019.

 

Also didn’t it get down to the single didgets?

[A-L-E-K]

 

[hardypalmguy]

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Looking perfect.