michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Seeing as though New England started their winter thread in March, I think it's safe to start ours now lol. We know its a nino, but plenty of unknowns as usual. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Gonna go out and say it snows at least one (1) time for most members of the sub. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2023 Author Share Posted October 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, hlcater said: Gonna go out and say it snows at least one (1) time for most members of the sub. I think that's a pretty safe bet lol. For Detroit, the least amount of days with measurable snow in a season is 15 days in 1889-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Hot take: Minneapolis will see less snow this winter then last. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Ride the torch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 14 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Ride the torch. Hard to argue with that when this #NotAWeatherGirl is swimming in Wisconsin in October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 At least we are shaking up the Nina pattern that we have been stuck in. We know for a fact a strong Nino at minimum, can it reach super? We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Hard to argue with that when this #NotAWeatherGirl is swimming in Wisconsin in October. We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 10 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Ride the torch. 40 and damp all winter. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 40 and damp all winter. Bring it MKE gets into warm sectors in winter. I don’t think MSP does much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 11 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Ride the torch. and yet the 500mb anom looks troughy in east and ridgy in west. So if that still happens and we end up with this /\, we might as well close the blinds and find a new hobby. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 40 and damp all winter. Bring it +0.5-1C is hardly a torch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 NMME Ensemble Mean of 7 longrange models. Far more worried about precip here than temps. This is the Sept update so it should update soon. Euro seasonal (not pictured) is pretty much normal, just slightly milder than avg northern tier. NDJ DJF JFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 suppressed juiced up track..... big midatlantic winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Wet patterns no longer exist for this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 4 hours ago, roardog said: We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window. People were swimming in October in 2007 as well, I am sure everyone here would take that winter in a heartbeat. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 WAD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Stebo said: People were swimming in October in 2007 as well, I am sure everyone here would take that winter in a heartbeat. Our warmest October on record, 1963, which included two days 90, was followed by a cold december. The second warmest October, 1947, was followed by a cold winter. October temps mean nothing wrt winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Winter of 2014 repeat incoming.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD Shitposting from just about any other poster. But you lob a 3 letter forecast and it verifies. If we pay $99 per month can we get the sauce behind your forecasts? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD wintery arctic drifts? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD Entirely possible for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Alex forecasts WAD every winter. lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 On 10/2/2023 at 2:26 PM, michsnowfreak said: I think that's a pretty safe bet lol. For Detroit, the least amount of days with measurable snow in a season is 15 days in 1889-90. Measurable snowfall, or snow OTG?? Please say snowfall, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 7, 2023 Author Share Posted October 7, 2023 11 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Measurable snowfall, or snow OTG?? Please say snowfall, lol. Measurable snowfall (0.1"+). In a Great Lakes climate where the snow season often spans 6 months of the year, it's pretty much impossible to not see multiple days of snow, even in the absolute worst winters (1889-90 was a historically bad winter until Feb). The winter with the least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover was 1936-37 with just 10 days. This is also the least snowy winter on record (12.9"). Its harder for you having lived in several places, but pick your least favorite winter (for me it's either 1997-98 or 2011-12) and look at the actual stats and see how even in the worst of times the days with snow do add up somewhat in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Gut saying WAD this year. We'll see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 On 10/7/2023 at 7:56 AM, michsnowfreak said: Measurable snowfall (0.1"+). In a Great Lakes climate where the snow season often spans 6 months of the year, it's pretty much impossible to not see multiple days of snow, even in the absolute worst winters (1889-90 was a historically bad winter until Feb). The winter with the least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover was 1936-37 with just 10 days. This is also the least snowy winter on record (12.9"). Its harder for you having lived in several places, but pick your least favorite winter (for me it's either 1997-98 or 2011-12) and look at the actual stats and see how even in the worst of times the days with snow do add up somewhat in the end. Uggh! and here I thought 15 days would be horrid, thus why I said "pls say snowfall". That's less than 2 wks of the entire 6 month "window". May we never go through that part of the larger cycle. What is that, like equal to the average for places in TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 9, 2023 Author Share Posted October 9, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 10:47 AM, michsnowfreak said: NMME Ensemble Mean of 7 longrange models. Far more worried about precip here than temps. This is the Sept update so it should update soon. Euro seasonal (not pictured) is pretty much normal, just slightly milder than avg northern tier. The November update shows the Lakes with a negligible signal of milder than avg and no signal on precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 9, 2023 Author Share Posted October 9, 2023 14 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Uggh! and here I thought 15 days would be horrid, thus why I said "pls say snowfall". That's less than 2 wks of the entire 6 month "window". May we never go through that part of the larger cycle. What is that, like equal to the average for places in TN? Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover & Nashville averages 6 days. For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days. Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days 10 days - 1936-37 11 days - 1931-32 12 days - 1918-19 15 days - 1982-83 16 days - 1952-53 Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days 96 days - 2013-14 91 days - 1977-78 89 days - 1947-48 89 days - 1981-82 86 days - 1966-67 Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall 15 days - 1889-90 17 days - 1918-19 17 days - 1881-82 18 days - 1982-83 18 days - 1948-49 Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall 62 days - 1925-26 61 days - 1884-85 56 days - 2013-14 52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover & Nashville averages 6 days. For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days. Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days 10 days - 1936-37 11 days - 1931-32 12 days - 1918-19 15 days - 1982-83 16 days - 1952-53 Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days 96 days - 2013-14 91 days - 1977-78 89 days - 1947-48 89 days - 1981-82 86 days - 1966-67 Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall 15 days - 1889-90 17 days - 1918-19 17 days - 1881-82 18 days - 1982-83 18 days - 1948-49 Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall 62 days - 1925-26 61 days - 1884-85 56 days - 2013-14 52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86 1982-83 was brutal. I remember hating that winter so much as a kid. The brown grass winter!! If I recall correctly a late snow (March or early April) prevented Detroit from breaking the low snowfall record. Not sure but I just remembering not to want to ever remember that winter.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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