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October 2023 General Discussion


Chambana
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15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Back in 11-12, I wasn't taking daily snow fall measurements, just seasonal totals. I had 47.2" surprisingly enough. Caught the jack-zone with the 11-29-11 storm, and January was actually decent (check KBTL to confirm).

My personal string is due to Marshall being in a dead zone 3 winters ago, then I moved to Canton and found another screw zone here the past two winters. To be clear I consider 2019-20 to be an AVG season. Comfortably within the +/-5% window I personally use for that ranking. Not sure what exactly the official record uses for determinations? 

Last 4 winters for mby: amt/avg/depart.

2022-23: 33.5"/45"/-9.5"

2021-22: 35.6"/45"/-9.4"

2020-21: 36.2"/49.7"/-13.5"

2019-20: 48.0"/49.7"/-1.7"

How did your side of Canton fare from those severe storms in late August?

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3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

How did your side of Canton fare from those severe storms in late August?

Oh, we had flooding here, the small stream that runs right through my complex was 6X it's normal width and way over it's banks. Parking lots were small ponds, but the worst was just a mile or so SW of mby. I feel fortunate to have not personally been ill-affected. Lost power in the March snowstorm which was no fun at all. The minor twister(s) were also about 2-3 miles SW of here. Were they near your place at all?

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9 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

You can really see how the Great Lakes saves MI, ON, NY and areas right along its shoreline from frost. Only down to low 40s for most of us 

I totally agree the Great Lakes do influence the temps in these area's.   Cloud cover from the spinning low north of the GLs also had a significant impact with the temps last night.  I have been in the mid-30s the past couple mornings with clear skies even with >10 MPH winds.  This morning temps are low 40s with the cloud cover.  It would have likely been in the low/mid 30s if it were clear out as the winds this morning are <5 MPH.

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20 hours ago, roardog said:

There’s no way a house will stay above 68 when the air temp outside is as cool as it’s been with wind for this many days unless you’re doing something inside the house that warms it up. 

Plus it was cloudier, colder, and windier here than MKE. Also, my house started colder because I left the windows open during the transition day that fell between AC & furnace :lol:

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19 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

That sounds expensive.  What is the payback period on that?  Also do you have very many windows?  Glass is a poor insulator.

I have a 95-year old house, lots of windows, and no 4 ft of insulation  in the attic lol. But again, see above post. I have no issue with running the heat now, itll be on the next 7 months, why wait? Just like with the AC, set a temp and it will run when it needs to run.

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17 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Back in 11-12, I wasn't taking daily snow fall measurements, just seasonal totals. I had 47.2" surprisingly enough. Caught the jack-zone with the 11-29-11 storm, and January was actually decent (check KBTL to confirm).

My personal string is due to Marshall being in a dead zone 3 winters ago, then I moved to Canton and found another screw zone here the past two winters. To be clear I consider 2019-20 to be an AVG season. Comfortably within the +/-5% window I personally use for that ranking. Not sure what exactly the official record uses for determinations? 

Last 4 winters for mby: amt/avg/depart.

2022-23: 33.5"/45"/-9.5"

2021-22: 35.6"/45"/-9.4"

2020-21: 36.2"/49.7"/-13.5"

2019-20: 48.0"/49.7"/-1.7"

That explains it. 2020-21 did better in the metro than west. I remember that weather guy Adam (in Jackson) losing it lol.

 

And we sometimes forget that youve moved around lol. For me, 2011-12 is the low-bar mark of my lifetime (25.5").

 

Pic after storm 2-16-21

150820471_10114625092474263_7616302198662817230_n.jpg

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5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have a 95-year old house, lots of windows, and no 4 ft of insulation  in the attic lol. But again, see above post. I have no issue with running the heat now, itll be on the next 7 months, why wait? Just like with the AC, set a temp and it will run when it needs to run.

The way I look at it is unless you’re really struggling with money, there’s no reason to be uncomfortable in your home. 

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3 minutes ago, roardog said:

The way I look at it is unless you’re really struggling with money, there’s no reason to be uncomfortable in your home. 

Some people are weirdos about that, like I don't get it. If you can afford to keep your house cool or warm, why fight it.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Some people are weirdos about that, like I don't get it. If you can afford to keep your house cool or warm, why fight it.

I dont either, and you see it every year. "its too early" for the furnace in early October, so youll freeze in your house. Not willing to set the thermostat to 68 while its in the 40s outside, but they have no problem setting it to 68 when its 0 outside in mid-winter, which goes without saying the furnace is working way harder in Jan than October. And you see the same thing in May when some say its "too early" to turn on the AC.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont either, and you see it every year. "its too early" for the furnace in early October, so youll freeze in your house. Not willing to set the thermostat to 68 while its in the 40s outside, but they have no problem setting it to 68 when its 0 outside in mid-winter, which goes without saying the furnace is working way harder in Jan than October. And you see the same thing in May when some say its "too early" to turn on the AC.

Its not getting above 60 at all this week, eventually these houses will be in the low 60s or lower at night. Its just dumb. Last week I used the ac driving to work and the heat home.

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Its not getting above 60 at all this week, eventually these houses will be in the low 60s or lower at night. Its just dumb. Last week I used the ac driving to work and the heat home.

Depends how well you insulated and how good your windows are. Still have yet to get below 70 without running any heat. Just purrs along 70-74 all day.

b861e9d0e66d6fdbd3956587c3136a69.jpg
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On 10/8/2023 at 12:28 PM, Brian D said:

Prelim data coming in, and chalk up another very warm Sept, driven by the strong + anoms in the W Sub. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Sept MW anom chrt 5yr.gif

Sept MW anom chrt 10yr.gif

Interesting. I did an abridged version for the Lower Great Lakes in September back to 1860, since I didn't have time to transcribe earlier records. I have the warmest years as 1881, 1931, 1921, 2015, 2016, and 2018. The coolest years were 1918, 1975, 1860, 1883, 1863 & 1866.

image.thumb.png.585badb5d4116f0735aed570462ccf7a.png

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13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I did an abridged version for the Lower Great Lakes in September back to 1860, since I didn't have time to transcribe earlier records. I have the warmest years as 1881, 1931, 1921, 2015, 2016, and 2018. The coolest years were 1918, 1975, 1860, 1883, 1863 & 1866.

image.thumb.png.585badb5d4116f0735aed570462ccf7a.png

Incidentally, NCEI recently released its national rankings. For the Great Lakes region as a whole, 2023 came in as 16th warmest on record (since 1895). 

The top five warmest years in the NCEI/NOAA dataset for the larger Great Lakes region are: 2015 (65.2F), 1931 (64.8F), 1921 (64.2F), 2005 (64.1F) and 2016 (64.1F). Since the official records date only to 1895, there is no data for 1881; however, that would almost certainly be among the warmest Septembers on record.

The top five coolest years (since 1895) in the NCEI/NOAA dataset for the larger Great Lakes Region are: 1918 (52.8F); 1924 (54.9F); 1975 (55.1F); 1896 (55.4F); and 1928 (55.4F).

image.thumb.png.7bdc97e6772d70fe578fddf881aaa1d5.png

Of note, NOAA/NCEI estimates trend at +1.2F/century for September in the Great Lakes region, since 1895. This matches the estimated trend since 1860 from the dataset I put together for the lower Lakes region (0.66C/century, which equals +1.18F/century).

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42 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I did an abridged version for the Lower Great Lakes in September back to 1860, since I didn't have time to transcribe earlier records. I have the warmest years as 1881, 1931, 1921, 2015, 2016, and 2018. The coolest years were 1918, 1975, 1860, 1883, 1863 & 1866.

image.thumb.png.585badb5d4116f0735aed570462ccf7a.png

1881 is the warmest September at Detroit by 2.4° over 2nd place. Incredibly warm month which would be followed by the warmest Winter on record. And all this after the harsh 1880-81 winter.

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On 10/10/2023 at 12:46 PM, michsnowfreak said:

That explains it. 2020-21 did better in the metro than west. I remember that weather guy Adam (in Jackson) losing it lol.

 

And we sometimes forget that youve moved around lol. For me, 2011-12 is the low-bar mark of my lifetime (25.5").

 

Pic after storm 2-16-21

150820471_10114625092474263_7616302198662817230_n.jpg

That winter I had nothing approaching that for snow cover. To get an image like that would've required deploying some kind of painting technique.

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3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

That winter I had nothing approaching that for snow cover. To get an image like that would've required deploying some kind of painting technique.

Our depth here peaked at 15".

 

BTW...a friend of mine who lives in a brand new condo refused to turn the heat on until today. As his temp inside dropped to 60.

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