October 2023 General Discussion

[weatherbo]

Woke up this morning before dawn to graupel briefly hitting the bedroom window with a temp of 38, and at work today down in Negaunee I saw snow mix in twice during heavier squalls.  Wind, rain, low 40's for a high.  It was a great October Fall Day.

[Brian D]

Chilly days, and nights now with a freeze warning for tomorrow a.m. in NE MN. That should be the last issuance for us. N WI still may get one yet, but growing season is over around here.

[Brian D]

Prelim data coming in, and chalk up another very warm Sept, driven by the strong + anoms in the W Sub. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

[Brian D]

Here's the results of a project of mine using data from long period stations in our region. I have been working this for a few years, but haven't updated in over a year. Until now, anyway. Finished up with Duluth, and MSP. I'll present more at a later date with combined data from our region overall, as it will take time to updated the many stations. Doing this manually from MRCC data ranking (dense method).

Here's DLH. One thing I noticed is the more extreme 1st place rankings. They seem to be a bit more common here in the north. The recent decade is humming along pretty well. Will be interesting to see over the coming years if that continues. Any new solo placements will drop the low hanging fruit in the #5 position, and possibly eliminate 5+/10+ data if it's a good 2nd/1st place rank.

Daily Top 5

Here's the list of 10dF+ from 2nd place to go with the chart below. (*) = monthly record.

Jan 14, 1894 51 +12

Jan 23, 1942 55 +15*

March 17, 2012 75 +14

March 22, 1945 72 +10

March 27, 1946 79 +12

March 28 1946 81 +11* 

April 27, 1952 88 +10*

May 6, 2016 92 +10

July 12, 1936 102 +10

July 13, 1936 106 +10*

Dec 31, 1904 49 +11

 

 

[Brian D]

Here's the data for MSP

MSP Top 5

10dF+ from 2nd place. (*) = monthly record

March 5, 2000 72 +12

April 21, 1980 95 +11*

May 31, 1934 106 +14*

Nov 29, 1998 62 +10

Dec 1, 1998 68 +11*

Dec 6, 1939 63 +10

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are flopping around, but the general trend is way north with the strong mid to late week system.  The Euro just jumped an entire state north, shifting the heavy rain from Iowa to SD/MN.  The heavy defo band now goes through Duluth.

[cyclone77]

More patchy frost tonight, and perhaps a first freeze on the way for tomorrow night.  

Most of the fields have been harvested around here now, and most lawns are coated by a scattering of colorful leaves.  Looking very Octoberish this weekend.

[RogueWaves]

On 9/23/2023 at 12:14 AM, SolidIcewx said:

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2023/09/today-in-michigan-weather-history-this-up-town-had-a-record-snowfall.html

Ironwood MI in 1995 got over 6 inches of snow

There was a decent covering of SN after squalls hit in the Higgins Lk region of the LP on the evening of 9-19-95 four days prior. My personal earliest ever experienced. 

[RogueWaves]

On 10/5/2023 at 5:02 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Because you painted it as I recall lol. We had several good Winter storms here. But definitely not my favorite winter.

Far from a "fave" actually, very far..

On 10/5/2023 at 5:04 PM, Stebo said:

Last winter was fine and didn't linger into April too much.

You have the bar set pretty darn low my man.

On 10/5/2023 at 6:14 PM, Lightning said:

I wouldn't say last winter was crap at all.  Brother-in-law near Tahoe had record snows.  Sister in Wyoming had near record snows.  Nephew in MN had record snows.  Friends in Buffalo with record snows.  Family on the west side of MI had two of their largest LES events in several years.  

Well, not if you're citing all those other places, lol. But what about HERE??

Personally, for me, it was (like the other poster said) void of redeeming qualities. BN in every category unless ice is your thing. A nearly snowless Feb (one of the "should be a lock" winter months) was really lame. To paint a better image, I saw 41% MORE snow in 11-12! 

As my 3rd well BN snow season, plus a near avg season prior, I personally should be "due", lol. 

[RogueWaves]

8 hours ago, Brian D said:

Chilly days, and nights now with a freeze warning for tomorrow a.m. in NE MN. That should be the last issuance for us. N WI still may get one yet, but growing season is over around here.

Looking like we in The Mitt will escape formal frost headlines by a slim margin. Would've been great for the prime color period but not happening despite the CPC's outlook calling for such.

[Torchageddon]

Just about every possible conceivable parameter to make today a rotten one was in place: very windy, rainy, dark, cold at 6C feeling like 3 after the near hot temps we had 5 days ago. Its a classic near the lakes getting this lake effect rain in Oct. 53 mm/2" since the start 4 days ago.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Currently 39 in Minneapolis. Coldest temperature of the season so far. 36 at my suburban office with patchy frost. 

[Lightning]

15 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Well, not if you're citing all those other places, lol. But what about HERE??

Personally, for me, it was (like the other poster said) void of redeeming qualities. BN in every category unless ice is your thing. A nearly snowless Feb (one of the "should be a lock" winter months) was really lame. To paint a better image, I saw 41% MORE snow in 11-12! 

As my 3rd well BN snow season, plus a near avg season prior, I personally should be "due", lol. 

You missed the point of my post but that's okay. 

Looking just at MBY then I will say I absolutely hated the warmth of Jan & Feb.  I am a skier and the SE MI hills condition were horrid this past winter.  I will say though at least they were mostly open as I have seen winters in which the hills around here were closed more than open. 

MBY did just fine as I ended up with near to slightly AA snowfall.  Loved the white Christmas in which is snowed light/moderately all day.  Plus many pretty cool events!!

Living in SE MI I learned each winter is different from the previous.  Averages are just averages with reality being all over the map.

I did not realize Detroit area has had 3 well BA snowfall winters in a row.  MBY is different as the last time I had what I would call a well BA snowfall winter was 16-17 winter.  It might depend on your definition of well BA.  As for me it would be >10" below the average.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Airport dropped to 37, widespread frost outside the heat island.

[nwohweather]

Impressive after essentially running AC from late April thru September how hard this flipped to Fall

[Lightning]

20 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are flopping around, but the general trend is way north with the strong mid to late week system.  The Euro just jumped an entire state north, shifting the heavy rain from Iowa to SD/MN.  The heavy defo band now goes through Duluth.

The models are like watching a tennis match from center court.  

I really do think you will get some decent rains out of this system!! 

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Far from a "fave" actually, very far..

You have the bar set pretty darn low my man.

Well, not if you're citing all those other places, lol. But what about HERE??

Personally, for me, it was (like the other poster said) void of redeeming qualities. BN in every category unless ice is your thing. A nearly snowless Feb (one of the "should be a lock" winter months) was really lame. To paint a better image, I saw 41% MORE snow in 11-12! 

As my 3rd well BN snow season, plus a near avg season prior, I personally should be "due", lol. 

I remember back in the day when the weather forums were at its peak, which also coincided with several severe winters, we had a group of folks who were big into the whole "give me a good storm" but disliked cold/snowcover. We had several good winter storms and extremely scenic snowfalls last year (White Christmas, Jan 22, Jan 25, Feb 22, Mar 3, Mar 10), just couldnt sustain anything. So I can see how someone with certain "requirements" as to what makes a good winter liked last winter.

 

When youre talking about seeing 41% more snow in 2011-12, were you just talking Feb? Couldnt possibly be the season as a whole. Last Feb sucked snowfall wise, but talk about being due for a sh*t Feb after our historic stretch of snowy Febs.

 

Lastly, Im a bit confused about the last line. Last winter was a below avg snow season (though I wouldnt call it "well below") with 2021-22 slightly above avg and the previous two seasons right near avg.

DTW snow the last 4 seasons

2022-23: 37.1" (-6.9")

2021-22: 47.1" (+3.1")

2020-21: 44.9" (+0.9")

2019-20: 43.7" (-0.3")

 

FNT snow the last 4 seasons

2022-23: 46.5" (-1.8")

2021-22: 60.5" (+12.2")

2020-21: 48.6" (+0.3")

2019-20: 53.7" (+5.4")

[michsnowfreak]

Falls brisk winds & crisp air is here in full force. Turned the heat on yesterday morning as the house got down to 57F. Absolutely loving it.

[Lightning]

 

[hardypalmguy]

48 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Falls brisk winds & crisp air is here in full force. Turned the heat on yesterday morning as the house got down to 57F. Absolutely loving it.

You should probably insulate it better then as mine has yet to fall below 68.

[weatherbo]

Chilly with lake effect/enhanced showers today... all rain now after briefly mixing with snow earlier this morning again.  Co-op observer in Herman reported pure snow showers for a time there.  Currently 39.
Wet and cool for most of the upcoming week.

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

You should probably insulate it better then as mine has yet to fall below 68.

There’s no way a house will stay above 68 when the air temp outside is as cool as it’s been with wind for this many days unless you’re doing something inside the house that warms it up. 

[hardypalmguy]

12 minutes ago, roardog said:

There’s no way a house will stay above 68 when the air temp outside is as cool as it’s been with wind for this many days unless you’re doing something inside the house that warms it up. 

Right now it's 70 in my house with the heat off.  Outside of cooking, running lights, electronics, etc, there's nothing else going on.  It was up to 74 yesterday afternoon inside as well when the sun was out.  So yeah, if your house is falling into the 50s this year already, there's an issue with your insulation.  I have 4 feet in my attic.

[roardog]

14 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Right now it's 70 in my house with the heat off.  Outside of cooking, running lights, electronics, etc, there's nothing else going on.  It was up to 74 yesterday afternoon inside as well when the sun was out.  So yeah, if your house is falling into the 50s this year already, there's an issue with your insulation.  I have 4 feet in my attic.

Your house must get full sun exposure along with you cooking in it to have it that warm because regardless of how well it’s insulated, a house will not stay that warm for that long from last week’s warm weather. If you subtracted the cooking and sun, your house wouldn’t be 70-74 degrees so you really can’t compare your situation to Michsnowfreak. 

[hardypalmguy]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Your house must get full sun exposure along with you cooking in it to have it that warm because regardless of how well it’s insulated, a house will not stay that warm for that long from last week’s warm weather. If you subtracted the cooking and sun, your house wouldn’t be 70-74 degrees so you really can’t compare your situation to Michsnowfreak. 

My heat barely runs in January -- think minutes out of each hour.

[WestMichigan]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Right now it's 70 in my house with the heat off.  Outside of cooking, running lights, electronics, etc, there's nothing else going on.  It was up to 74 yesterday afternoon inside as well when the sun was out.  So yeah, if your house is falling into the 50s this year already, there's an issue with your insulation.  I have 4 feet in my attic.

That sounds expensive.  What is the payback period on that?  Also do you have very many windows?  Glass is a poor insulator.

[cyclone77]

42 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

That sounds expensive.  What is the payback period on that?  Also do you have very many windows?  Glass is a poor insulator.

Quadruple pane.

Got down to 35 here this morning for the coldest temp of the season so far.  Have a shot at freezing briefly tonight.

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, Lightning said:

You missed the point of my post but that's okay. 

Looking just at MBY then I will say I absolutely hated the warmth of Jan & Feb.  I am a skier and the SE MI hills condition were horrid this past winter.  I will say though at least they were mostly open as I have seen winters in which the hills around here were closed more than open. 

MBY did just fine as I ended up with near to slightly AA snowfall.  Loved the white Christmas in which is snowed light/moderately all day.  Plus many pretty cool events!!

Living in SE MI I learned each winter is different from the previous.  Averages are just averages with reality being all over the map.

I did not realize Detroit area has had 3 well BA snowfall winters in a row.  MBY is different as the last time I had what I would call a well BA snowfall winter was 16-17 winter.  It might depend on your definition of well BA.  As for me it would be >10" below the average.

They have not. That's for mby in two different locales.

[madwx]

reeling in this late week rainer.  Hoping for 2"+.  

[RogueWaves]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I remember back in the day when the weather forums were at its peak, which also coincided with several severe winters, we had a group of folks who were big into the whole "give me a good storm" but disliked cold/snowcover. We had several good winter storms and extremely scenic snowfalls last year (White Christmas, Jan 22, Jan 25, Feb 22, Mar 3, Mar 10), just couldnt sustain anything. So I can see how someone with certain "requirements" as to what makes a good winter liked last winter.

 

When youre talking about seeing 41% more snow in 2011-12, were you just talking Feb? Couldnt possibly be the season as a whole. Last Feb sucked snowfall wise, but talk about being due for a sh*t Feb after our historic stretch of snowy Febs.

 

Lastly, Im a bit confused about the last line. Last winter was a below avg snow season (though I wouldnt call it "well below") with 2021-22 slightly above avg and the previous two seasons right near avg.

DTW snow the last 4 seasons

2022-23: 37.1" (-6.9")

2021-22: 47.1" (+3.1")

2020-21: 44.9" (+0.9")

2019-20: 43.7" (-0.3")

 

FNT snow the last 4 seasons

2022-23: 46.5" (-1.8")

2021-22: 60.5" (+12.2")

2020-21: 48.6" (+0.3")

2019-20: 53.7" (+5.4")

Back in 11-12, I wasn't taking daily snow fall measurements, just seasonal totals. I had 47.2" surprisingly enough. Caught the jack-zone with the 11-29-11 storm, and January was actually decent (check KBTL to confirm).

My personal string is due to Marshall being in a dead zone 3 winters ago, then I moved to Canton and found another screw zone here the past two winters. To be clear I consider 2019-20 to be an AVG season. Comfortably within the +/-5% window I personally use for that ranking. Not sure what exactly the official record uses for determinations? 

Last 4 winters for mby: amt/avg/depart.

2022-23: 33.5"/45"/-9.5"

2021-22: 35.6"/45"/-9.4"

2020-21: 36.2"/49.7"/-13.5"

2019-20: 48.0"/49.7"/-1.7"