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October 2023 General Discussion


Chambana
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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Seasonable to warm the last few days. Just some off, and on shower activity. 1.45" so far running half of avg, and probably not much more to add to that before cold, CA air moves in with snow showers. that'll be a shot in arse, but temps will rebound closer to avg after a few days of mid Nov-ish temps. Low-mid 40's for highs is avg late Oct into the first week of Nov. Upper 20's-low 30's for lows. Avg's really nose dive through Oct-Nov. Conversely for March-April.

That's late November averages here.  WOW.

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Today's system performed well for southeast Iowa.  One cell produced the heaviest rain I've seen in months, and everything together added up to 1.50".  Parts of Iowa, especially out west, experienced a major model bust this week, but, thankfully, today salvaged it for us.  For days, models had this system stronger and farther nw, but the last-minute weaker and southeast trend benefitted us.

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19 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

The first real-deal flake potential of the season around here may be on the horizon for Halloween.

Guidance is in agreement as of now for a potent disturbance to move through, bringing a squally/showery set-up.

a tradition like no other

image.thumb.png.0c2c56d791b73a2ea8fd18eebc2b50ca.png

 

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66/62 atm here with a muggy feel to the air.  Cold front just passed through DVN, so have about a half hour left of this recent warm/humid spell.

Some models show a few wet flakes here as early as Sunday with the passing frontal wave.  Best shot looks Tuesday though as that potent vort slams through the area.  

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October has been average precipitation here.  Only got 1/3" out of this system.  1" totals about 10 miles to my north.  Not complete misses at all but most of the month the heavier total have been just to the west or north of here.  I will say I am not surprised by the set ups.  

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With response to the Northern Ohio discussion, Toledo had high 79, low 63, average 71 yesterday, all of which were 19, 22, and 21 degrees above normal. 79 broke the record of 78 from 1927, 1984, and 2014. The high of 78 in 1927 must have been a strange one, because there wasn't exactly global warming. Also, 10/28/1927 had a high of 81.

 10/27/2014 was fairly similar to yesterday, in the wind directions, and the dew point at Toledo. The similarities are not so much there for the northern Plains, which was in the mid-20's in some areas yesterday.

 

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