Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

October Discobs 2023


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf.

A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now.

let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concerned

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now.
let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concerned

True, I should have mentioned a storm coming up from the south. This is just such an odd, prolonged pattern. Temp-wise, the trend would seem to indicate a cold winter ahead, but will it be accompanied by a pattern change and an active stj is the tbd.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, 87storms said:


True, I should have mentioned a storm coming up from the south. This is just such an odd, prolonged pattern. Temp-wise, the trend would seem to indicate a cold winter ahead, but will it be accompanied by a pattern change and an active stj is the tbd.

I actually think its the other way around. Based on my top analogs so far (could change) I’m seeing a signal for a wet winter with a STJ. Whether that is accompanied by cold temps is tbd. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, 87storms said:

I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf.

But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter.

I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter.

I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now.

I wasn't talking about January lol.  I'm just saying the pattern right now is really no different than it has been all year, regardless of whether we're in an El Nino or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like another good ole model fight for the weekend's rain.  The juicy GFS or the dry CMC/Euro.

I would tend to lean towards the CMC/Euro since this is a deepening coastal low that is moving away from us. It's like banking on the back end snow to save your forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi of 62° after a low of 50° this morning. You know it’s October when you’re rocking 12 degree diurnals. 
 

Clouds helped the night shift sleeping efforts. One more of these after tonight. 
 

Anyone planning on going leaf peeping this weekend or next week? I’m probably going to head out on Monday into the Catoctins on my day off. Should be nice and quiet with the weather settling as well. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

45.

Lots of lows in the 40s recently. Looks like a decent chance for some 30s Monday night outside of the cities with HP in place and calm conditions. Perhaps some scattered frost.

Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with. 

I was thinking the same thing this morning. I feel like recent Octobers have been hot and dry. This has been a beautiful October. Hopefully we'll get some of those fresh powder blue bird mornings this winter that I remember as a kid. I remember going to bed with snow in the forecast, sneaking to the living room window during the night and seeing it dumping. Then wake up to dark blue sky and 8-12" on the ground. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...