pazzo83 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Nice dusting above 5000ft down in the Smoky Mountains 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, 87storms said: I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf. A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now. let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concerned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 A storm out of the gulf in October would most probably be tropical, and el ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in those parts. It’s getting quieter now. let’s get to mid January, and if we haven’t had anything come out of the gulf and no models are showing anything 2 weeks out, then maybe it’s time to get concernedTrue, I should have mentioned a storm coming up from the south. This is just such an odd, prolonged pattern. Temp-wise, the trend would seem to indicate a cold winter ahead, but will it be accompanied by a pattern change and an active stj is the tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 hours ago, 87storms said: True, I should have mentioned a storm coming up from the south. This is just such an odd, prolonged pattern. Temp-wise, the trend would seem to indicate a cold winter ahead, but will it be accompanied by a pattern change and an active stj is the tbd. I actually think its the other way around. Based on my top analogs so far (could change) I’m seeing a signal for a wet winter with a STJ. Whether that is accompanied by cold temps is tbd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 10 hours ago, 87storms said: I know we’re technically in an El Niño, but I don’t see how this is any different from a La Nina. It’s gonna be a change of pace when we get a storm out of the gulf. But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter. I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I guess the O's shouldn't feel so bad about the sweep by the Rangers. Texas is taking apart the Astros so far. Seven game winning streak in the postseason ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Another cloudy day. Mostly cloudy and 55 outside. Sunny and 78 in my greenhouse. 500 watts of LED grow lights make up for cloudy days with low sun angle. Looks like they will be running full blast this weekend also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said: I guess the O's shouldn't feel so bad about the sweep by the Rangers. Texas is taking apart the Astros so far. Seven game winning streak in the postseason ongoing. They are an absolute buzzsaw right now. Talk about getting hot at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: They are an absolute buzzsaw right now. Talk about getting hot at the right time. It's definitely making me feel a bit better. A World Series of Rangers/Phillies would pit two teams both on absolute heaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, mattie g said: But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter. I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now. I wasn't talking about January lol. I'm just saying the pattern right now is really no different than it has been all year, regardless of whether we're in an El Nino or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Another day of a persistent cloud deck, though it looks like this might be the last cloud-fueled lobe of vorticity moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Looks like another good ole model fight for the weekend's rain. The juicy GFS or the dry CMC/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Interstate said: Looks like another good ole model fight for the weekend's rain. The juicy GFS or the dry CMC/Euro. I would tend to lean towards the CMC/Euro since this is a deepening coastal low that is moving away from us. It's like banking on the back end snow to save your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 5 hours ago, mattie g said: But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter. I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now. To be fair, some in this forum start handwringing about next winter in March . . . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would tend to lean towards the CMC/Euro since this is a deepening coastal low that is moving away from us. It's like banking on the back end snow to save your forecast. You wouldn't be saying this because you need the weekend to be dry would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: You wouldn't be saying this because you need the weekend to be dry would you? No. I don't need this weekend to be dry. Just tomorrow and the 30th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Hi of 62° after a low of 50° this morning. You know it’s October when you’re rocking 12 degree diurnals. Clouds helped the night shift sleeping efforts. One more of these after tonight. Anyone planning on going leaf peeping this weekend or next week? I’m probably going to head out on Monday into the Catoctins on my day off. Should be nice and quiet with the weather settling as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 42 low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Got down to 43 then the clouds came in and we shot back up to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 43 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 45. Lots of lows in the 40s recently. Looks like a decent chance for some 30s Monday night outside of the cities with HP in place and calm conditions. Perhaps some scattered frost. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 45. Lots of lows in the 40s recently. Looks like a decent chance for some 30s Monday night outside of the cities with HP in place and calm conditions. Perhaps some scattered frost. Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 38 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, after a warm start, it feels like the Octobers I remember growing up with. I was thinking the same thing this morning. I feel like recent Octobers have been hot and dry. This has been a beautiful October. Hopefully we'll get some of those fresh powder blue bird mornings this winter that I remember as a kid. I remember going to bed with snow in the forecast, sneaking to the living room window during the night and seeing it dumping. Then wake up to dark blue sky and 8-12" on the ground. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Another cloudy day so far. I’m ready for that high pressure to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 39 this morning yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Low of 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 41.5 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 38 with a bit of frost on the roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 a surprising low of 33—coldest night so far (iirc). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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