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2023 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Unlocking for one more day since I forgot to bump this yesterday 

 

On 10/1/2023 at 4:44 PM, George BM said:

DCA: 2/01/24

IAD: 12/25

BWI: 2/01/24

RIC: 12/25

BWI Oct departure: +2.2F

Almost had a 2018 snowfall contest moment. :yikes:

...

DCA: 11/07

IAD: 10/27

BWI: 10/27

RIC: 11/08

BWI Oct departure: +0.2F

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  • 2 weeks later...
9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Kind of odd RIC would get a freeze before DCA?

Looks like DCA was 34

Not that odd.

The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown.

And it isn't on a major river.

DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island.

Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Score update!

@GATECH is leading with a departure of just 3 days. @southmdwatcher a close second with 4, and @BristowWx third with 5. 
 

BWI has a departure of +3.9F for October, warmer than anyone predicted. @BristowWx closest among the contenders. 

dear God just give me this one victory.  I promise to stop drinking if I do.....at least 1 day per week unless we are tracking something at 384 or less...then sobriety will have to wait

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2 hours ago, arlwx12 said:

Not that odd.

The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown.

And it isn't on a major river.

DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island.

Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water.

Looking at the Chesterfield County Airport reported 22f this morning; and it's just across town from RIC. That's 22f while DCA was 34.

image.png.27856c60d34ca534f029e0bf44ff2c1b.png

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52 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

The heat island around downtown DC is only bested in these parts by Manhattan.

True...See this post in the NYC Metro forum.  LGA average first freeze later than both RDU and Tallahassee FL.  Yes; NY freezes later than FL.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59595-october-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7036993

 

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8 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

True...See this post in the NYC Metro forum.  LGA average first freeze later than both RDU and Tallahassee FL.  Yes; NY freezes later than FL.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59595-october-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7036993

 

winter nighttime temps at NYC and LGA are comparable to the Gulf coast.

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Comparing DCA predictions for low error forecasts (I include all in current order of total departure for known outcomes BWI, IAD and RIC Nov 2)

Table makes it easy to assess your contest situation going forward (e.g., morbid, pitiful, terrible)

For entries already past date of DCA prediction, I add in DCA error to date since it will only increase now. I will edit table to adjust DCA error already accumulated.

I also added "wins if DCA" info for contenders. Tiebreaker winning dates are **

total errors and "wins if DCA" info edited Nov 25 _ table for first DCA freeze Nov 28 as it appears unlikely a freeze will occur Nov 26-27 (25 looked possible but reported as 34F, table now for Nov 28)

 

DCA _ Nov 28 _ Final Results as  date verified (evening low)

 

** can no longer improve total error  _ now final, DCA date later 

 

FORECASTER _____ IAD,BWI,RIC _____ DCA fcst ___ total err 28th __ tiebreaker

**GAtech ____________ 3 _______________  Dec 1 ________ 6 _______ +2.1  

BristowWx ___________ 5 _______________ Nov 23 ______ 10 _______ +3.3  

southMDwatcher ____ 4 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 13 _______ +2.0  

**Terpeast __________ 21 ______________ Nov 29 ______ 22 _______ +1.0

nj2va ________________ 10 _______________Nov 15 ______ 23 _______ +1.9  

nw baltimore wx ____ 15 _______________ Nov 18 ______25 _______ +1.2

biodhokie ___________ 15 _______________Nov 15 ______ 25 ________+0.7 

WinterWxLuvr _______ 8 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 25 ________ -0.2 

Mattie g ____________ 19 _______________ Nov 20 ______ 27 _______+0.9

katabatic ____________23 ______________ Nov 22 ______ 29 _______ +1.8

WxUSAF ____________ 18 _______________ Nov 17 ______ 29 _______+0.8

SnowenOutThere ___ 12 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 29 _______-0.4  

midAtlanticweather _ 14 ______________ Nov 11 _______ 31 _______ +0.8  

**North Balti Zen____23 _______________ Dec 7 _______ 32 _______+0.2 

RIC Airport __________28 _______________Nov 23 ______ 33 _______+1.7

GramaxRefugee_____ 23 _______________Nov 18 ______ 33 _______+0.2

Weather53 __________22 ______________ Nov 16 _______34 _______+2.0

peribonca ___________26 _______________ Nov 20 _____ 34 _______ +1.0

Bob Chill ____________ 17 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 34 _______ -1.1 

Rhino 16 _____________16 _______________ Nov 8 _______ 36 _______ +1.3

gopper ______________27 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 36 _______ -0.2

RickInBaltimore______25 _______________ Nov 16 ______ 37 _______ +1.2

George BM _________ 18 ________________ Nov 7 ______ 39 ________ -0.2

Millville Wx _________ 17 ________________Nov 4 _______ 41 _______ +0.6 

NorthArlington101 __ 20 _______________ Nov 7 _______ 41 ________+0.5

MNTransplant _______13 _______________ Oct 31 _______41 _______ -0.7 

wxdude64 __________ 27 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 42 _______ +1.7

frd __________________ 30 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 45 ________+1.1

WxDavis5784 _______ 38 _______________ Nov 20 ______46 ________+2.1

Roger Smith _________ 37 _______________ Nov 15 ______ 50 ________ -0.1

**DanTheMan _______ 51 ________________Dec 19 ______ 72 ________+1.0 

**Aldie 22 ___________ 73 _______________ Jan 13 ______ 119 ________+2.1 

__________________________________

If correct about no DCA freeze before Nov 28, only five forecasters would not have reached their DCA freeze prediction by then; only these five can change positions in the table after 24th, GAtech would stay first for any DCA freeze Nov 27 or later (loses tiebreaker for Nov 26), Terpeast can finish as high as fourth for Nov 28 to Dec 4 first DCA freeze, North Balti Zen can also finish as high as fourth for Dec 5 or any later date (Terpeast then drops to 5th). DanTheMan can finish as high as 11th for any date Dec 17 or later; Aldie 22 can finish as high as 10th if DCA freeze is delayed to Jan 2024 but needs a freeze after Dec 27 to escape last place ... ... ... ...  (I would be there as DanTheMan would be 11th by then). 

Everyone else is locked into ranks now shown with four of those five possibly changed positions factored in. If you have passed your DCA freeze date, your total error will continue to increase at the same rate as all others including the ** five after they pass their prediction dates. 

 

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