GATECH Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 BWI: Nov 3 IAD: Nov 3 DCA: Dec 1 RIC: Nov 3 BWI departure +2.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 BWI: Oct 31 IAD: Oct 24 DCA: Oct 31 RIC: Oct 31 BWI departure -0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 BWI _ Oct 21 IAD _ Oct 21 DCA _ Nov 15 RIC _ Nov 15 BWI departure -0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2023 Author Share Posted October 8, 2023 Unlocking for one more day since I forgot to bump this yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Unlocking for one more day since I forgot to bump this yesterday On 10/1/2023 at 4:44 PM, George BM said: DCA: 2/01/24 IAD: 12/25 BWI: 2/01/24 RIC: 12/25 BWI Oct departure: +2.2F Almost had a 2018 snowfall contest moment. ... DCA: 11/07 IAD: 10/27 BWI: 10/27 RIC: 11/08 BWI Oct departure: +0.2F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 DCA: 12/07 IAD: 11/02 BWI: 11/02 RIC: 11/25 BWI Oct departure: +0.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/31 BWI: 11/1 RIC: 11/11 BWI Oct departure: -0.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2023 Author Share Posted October 17, 2023 Next Tuesday looks like the first chance possibly for IAD and maybe BWI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 For perspective, Caribou, ME, hasn’t even hit 36F yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 On 10/8/2023 at 1:50 PM, North Balti Zen said: DCA: 12/07 IAD: 11/02 BWI: 11/02 RIC: 11/25 BWI Oct departure: +0.5F Looking like next Tuesday or so is the next shot at this for a BWI and Dulles maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 On 10/5/2023 at 7:28 PM, MN Transplant said: BWI: Oct 31 IAD: Oct 24 DCA: Oct 31 RIC: Oct 31 BWI departure -0.7 Well, crap. Two more degrees this morning and this would have been in really good shape with the front coming through next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 If we miss the window mid-week next week it may be a little while and then some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 26, 2023 Author Share Posted October 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: If we miss the window mid-week next week it may be a little while and then some... Right now it looks pretty solid for every station except DCA. But yeah…could be very late if not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 IAD and BWI have a chance at/near those dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2023 Author Share Posted October 29, 2023 Wednesday to Friday looks likely for all but DCA. A chance inside the beltway but I’d bet against it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 IAD and RIC got it at least. BWI would need an intrahour or a bit more cooling at 7am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 NWS reported BWI hit 32 at 0720. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 Score update! @GATECH is leading with a departure of just 3 days. @southmdwatcher a close second with 4, and @BristowWx third with 5. BWI has a departure of +3.9F for October, warmer than anyone predicted. @BristowWx closest among the contenders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: IAD and RIC got it at least. BWI would need an intrahour or a bit more cooling at 7am. Kind of odd RIC would get a freeze before DCA? Looks like DCA was 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 8:37 AM, aldie 22 said: BWI: Nov 9 IAD: Nov 8 DCA: Jan 13 RIC: Dec 31 BWI departure +2.1 so if i nail DCA i might still have a chance at this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Kind of odd RIC would get a freeze before DCA? Looks like DCA was 34 Not that odd. The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown. And it isn't on a major river. DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island. Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 36 minutes ago, yoda said: Kind of odd RIC would get a freeze before DCA? Looks like DCA was 34 Happens every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2023 Author Share Posted November 2, 2023 Yup, DCA is almost always last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 The heat island around downtown DC is only bested in these parts by Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Score update! @GATECH is leading with a departure of just 3 days. @southmdwatcher a close second with 4, and @BristowWx third with 5. BWI has a departure of +3.9F for October, warmer than anyone predicted. @BristowWx closest among the contenders. dear God just give me this one victory. I promise to stop drinking if I do.....at least 1 day per week unless we are tracking something at 384 or less...then sobriety will have to wait 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 2 hours ago, arlwx12 said: Not that odd. The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown. And it isn't on a major river. DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island. Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water. Looking at the Chesterfield County Airport reported 22f this morning; and it's just across town from RIC. That's 22f while DCA was 34. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 52 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: The heat island around downtown DC is only bested in these parts by Manhattan. True...See this post in the NYC Metro forum. LGA average first freeze later than both RDU and Tallahassee FL. Yes; NY freezes later than FL. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59595-october-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7036993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: True...See this post in the NYC Metro forum. LGA average first freeze later than both RDU and Tallahassee FL. Yes; NY freezes later than FL. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59595-october-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7036993 winter nighttime temps at NYC and LGA are comparable to the Gulf coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Comparing DCA predictions for low error forecasts (I include all in current order of total departure for known outcomes BWI, IAD and RIC Nov 2) Table makes it easy to assess your contest situation going forward (e.g., morbid, pitiful, terrible) For entries already past date of DCA prediction, I add in DCA error to date since it will only increase now. I will edit table to adjust DCA error already accumulated. I also added "wins if DCA" info for contenders. Tiebreaker winning dates are ** total errors and "wins if DCA" info edited Nov 25 _ table for first DCA freeze Nov 28 as it appears unlikely a freeze will occur Nov 26-27 (25 looked possible but reported as 34F, table now for Nov 28) DCA _ Nov 28 _ Final Results as date verified (evening low) ** can no longer improve total error _ now final, DCA date later FORECASTER _____ IAD,BWI,RIC _____ DCA fcst ___ total err 28th __ tiebreaker **GAtech ____________ 3 _______________ Dec 1 ________ 6 _______ +2.1 BristowWx ___________ 5 _______________ Nov 23 ______ 10 _______ +3.3 southMDwatcher ____ 4 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 13 _______ +2.0 **Terpeast __________ 21 ______________ Nov 29 ______ 22 _______ +1.0 nj2va ________________ 10 _______________Nov 15 ______ 23 _______ +1.9 nw baltimore wx ____ 15 _______________ Nov 18 ______25 _______ +1.2 biodhokie ___________ 15 _______________Nov 15 ______ 25 ________+0.7 WinterWxLuvr _______ 8 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 25 ________ -0.2 Mattie g ____________ 19 _______________ Nov 20 ______ 27 _______+0.9 katabatic ____________23 ______________ Nov 22 ______ 29 _______ +1.8 WxUSAF ____________ 18 _______________ Nov 17 ______ 29 _______+0.8 SnowenOutThere ___ 12 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 29 _______-0.4 midAtlanticweather _ 14 ______________ Nov 11 _______ 31 _______ +0.8 **North Balti Zen____23 _______________ Dec 7 _______ 32 _______+0.2 RIC Airport __________28 _______________Nov 23 ______ 33 _______+1.7 GramaxRefugee_____ 23 _______________Nov 18 ______ 33 _______+0.2 Weather53 __________22 ______________ Nov 16 _______34 _______+2.0 peribonca ___________26 _______________ Nov 20 _____ 34 _______ +1.0 Bob Chill ____________ 17 _______________ Nov 11 ______ 34 _______ -1.1 Rhino 16 _____________16 _______________ Nov 8 _______ 36 _______ +1.3 gopper ______________27 _______________ Nov 19 ______ 36 _______ -0.2 RickInBaltimore______25 _______________ Nov 16 ______ 37 _______ +1.2 George BM _________ 18 ________________ Nov 7 ______ 39 ________ -0.2 Millville Wx _________ 17 ________________Nov 4 _______ 41 _______ +0.6 NorthArlington101 __ 20 _______________ Nov 7 _______ 41 ________+0.5 MNTransplant _______13 _______________ Oct 31 _______41 _______ -0.7 wxdude64 __________ 27 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 42 _______ +1.7 frd __________________ 30 _______________ Nov 13 ______ 45 ________+1.1 WxDavis5784 _______ 38 _______________ Nov 20 ______46 ________+2.1 Roger Smith _________ 37 _______________ Nov 15 ______ 50 ________ -0.1 **DanTheMan _______ 51 ________________Dec 19 ______ 72 ________+1.0 **Aldie 22 ___________ 73 _______________ Jan 13 ______ 119 ________+2.1 __________________________________ If correct about no DCA freeze before Nov 28, only five forecasters would not have reached their DCA freeze prediction by then; only these five can change positions in the table after 24th, GAtech would stay first for any DCA freeze Nov 27 or later (loses tiebreaker for Nov 26), Terpeast can finish as high as fourth for Nov 28 to Dec 4 first DCA freeze, North Balti Zen can also finish as high as fourth for Dec 5 or any later date (Terpeast then drops to 5th). DanTheMan can finish as high as 11th for any date Dec 17 or later; Aldie 22 can finish as high as 10th if DCA freeze is delayed to Jan 2024 but needs a freeze after Dec 27 to escape last place ... ... ... ... (I would be there as DanTheMan would be 11th by then). Everyone else is locked into ranks now shown with four of those five possibly changed positions factored in. If you have passed your DCA freeze date, your total error will continue to increase at the same rate as all others including the ** five after they pass their prediction dates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 It was RIC's earliest freeze since 2013, which was the last time it hit freezing in October. 11-10 to 11-15 seems to be becoming the new normal. The last spring freeze, although it has trended earlier, seems to be more on par with the historical average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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