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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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1 minute ago, Snowedin said:

Just got back from a walk a little while ago. It feels absolutely amazing compared to previous days. Imagine a relaxing, comfortable walk in late October, no jackets or sweatshirts necessary. You just can’t beat it baby! Let’s keep the love train going..

Bang off work at noon, go to The Range and hit a few balls around after a few beers. :lol: 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weenie land stuff has some good HP. Love to see it. 

Yeah I like how the western ridge re-flexes on a lot of those GFS runs…EPS has been showing the longwave trough reestablishing itself too after the relaxation in the 11/4-11/7 period. I’m hoping that’s a sign of a different regime this winter. 

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I'm going with the idea that if I say it will be a much above normal winter with almost no significant snowfall it will end up being cold and snowy. There is a psychobabbel term for this.

So, for the record, its going to be a well AN winter with very little snow. Temps near 70 on Christmas Day and no snow until after January 15th.

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Everything’s going according to plan from two weeks ago actually… This whole period of time was very well handled or anticipated just using the teleconnector layouts. Prior to the EPO you could see this whole thing happening as the natural progression over time, aft of a negative EPO burst.

I’m hoping we get -EPO cyclic behavior later in the month … and it just evolves into a cold December so that we can really go anti-El Niño lol. 

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For those that want a little more than 3 word posts re next week...

Interesting from the 00z Euro cluster.  There is now a more discerned signal from both the ensemble mean and operational version for vague Miller B --> NJ model cyclone.  Prior run cycles merely hinted with more scatter. The 00z release emerged more coherency..  

However, the GEPs and GEFs are less enthused.  The GGEM operational version does generate a low/middling coastal response to the trough, however, as it attempts to rotate its axis through the bottom of the L/W. 

The general synoptic scaffold is consistent among all these guidance sources, which seems to leave the mechanics of the small wave scale that is embedded as the sensitivity for correction.

The entire circumstance is marginal for temperatures. 

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4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Whatever happens next week, it is impressive to see strong high pressures continue to build in after any warm up....Also coming in through the center of the country, not into the Pacific Northwest, already looks better than last year....:whistle:

It will change mid month perhaps. 

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