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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Who had the under?

 

On 10/21/2023 at 2:05 PM, dendrite said:

GFS has a little inversion there at 925. There will probably be some low to mid 70s mid to late week, but I’ll take the under on 80s. 

 

On 10/21/2023 at 2:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

That’s what I think. 70s. 

 

On 10/21/2023 at 2:39 PM, weathafella said:

75-79 Wednesday and maybe Thursday.  Glorious!   Struggling to go higher than 40s several days the following week.   

 

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34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

 

Yeah I knew that was to me. I was taking the under on Forky’s 80 on Wednesday because of weaker mixing and the cold start in the valleys. I’ll admit I mixed up my words there because I was trying to imply late week looked warmer than the 70s yesterday. Models have had 2m 18z temps late week in the upper 70s for days so 80° was never a shock. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I knew that was to me. I was taking the under on Forky’s 80 on Wednesday because of weaker mixing and the cold start in the valleys. I’ll admit I mixed up my words there because I was trying to imply late week looked warmer than the 70s yesterday. Models have had 2m 18z temps late week in the upper 70s for days so 80° was never a shock. 

Always go 99 percentile a week out. You won’t lose. 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is not bad at all. full latitude ridge into AK allowing for pretty anomalous cold to move in behind the initial boundary. hopefully we can see the -NAO flex a bit to allow the 50/50 to trend stronger and less progressive. that is the key IMO

i am worried that the ECMWF is a bit too amped with that MW shortwave, though. would make sense given its biases

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8775200.thumb.png.2e59a27b0666b50d5ce6ae4d535acbe1.png

Yeah we want to see that 50/50 get pinned a little further south for SNE this early in the season but certainly the look is there for interior NNE and perhaps some of the higher terrain in SNE. It could just end up as a NNE mountains deal too….but for 11/1 that is still semi-interesting. 
 

I think at this point, I’d rather see the trailing shortwave a little flatter and hope it amps up as we get closer rather than needing it to tone down. We are still fighting a bit of SE ridging too so there could be some compression issues (Tip’s favorite) as well.
 

But at least there is something to pseudo-track….shake off the winter forecasting rust. 
 

 

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