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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc crushed interior New England

Yeah ...I wrote about an early November signal for sub climo cold in the winter thread a while ago.  I left the idea of an actual event availing of it a bit nebulous, 'at a minimum a supportive atmosphere and probable initiation of LEK and upslope'   It just was too early to be that specific at the time.

I'm not surprised that we are seeing occasional solutions trying to turn that trough axis more neutral.  In fact, two days ago, I saw that and thought 'if the Euro can just turn that sucker around the dial a little sooner we repeat the last 10 years of odd early snow shots across the bow.  The Euro summarily began doing that.  

It may not happen that way... but the take away is that any system that passes through that synoptic framing in the first week of Novie has a chance.

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9 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

you have to at least consider if something like this happens, it could be the year we run wire to wire snowpack til April like in the days of yore 

0 consideration from me. 

never happen ... if we wanna argue a .94% for, vs a 99.06% chance against, then yeah, technically not 0.  Sure -

dream away. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

0 consideration from me. 

never happen ... if we wanna argue a .94% for, vs a 99.06% chance against, then yeah, technically not 0.  Sure -

dream away. 

The funny thing is you know it's happened at least once in the past few thousand years probably.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

0 consideration from me. 

never happen ... if we wanna argue a .94% for, vs a 99.06% chance against, then yeah, technically not 0.  Sure -

dream away. 

I mean statistically its probably even less likely ... just meant to be a joke :lol: 

but if it were to happen, it would probably take a huge QPF event early like modeled to have a chance 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The funny thing is you know it's happened at least once in the past few thousand years probably.

right ... once in 1,000 years   lol

Yeah I know that's kind of a heavy handed snark there... But in all seriousness, adding the CC challenge to the notion that 1995-1996 could even get it done ( close though!), leaves me equally challenged to visualize how that could happen.  plus - 'goes without saying. I've seen too many big snows in Novie/early Dec that were sandy decks by xmas

nah

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The GGEM used to do that a lot in the early aughts.  The versions of that model back in the day, like 1996 through 2005, it used to fuse TCs into cold core coastals every autumn.  It was like a right of passage that heralded in the winter because although it never happened, it seemed to have a rightish idea.  The patterns always turned cold around the time it was doing that.  interesting... 

Not sure about this particular peregrination of the GFS but it smacks of that GGEM era.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GGEM used to do that a lot in the early aughts.  The versions of that model back in the day, like 1996 through 2005, it used to fuse TCs into cold core coastals every autumn.  It was like a right of passage that heralded in the winter because although it never happened, it seemed to have a rightish idea.  The patterns always turned cold around the time it was doing that.  interesting... 

Not sure about this particular peregrination of the GFS but it smacks of that GGEM era.

:lol:

Yes I remember that very well....like that brings back to college circa fall of, say 2002 or 2000, and you're just waiting for the winter threats to start and eveyr so often, the GGEM would come out of nowhere in late October or November and try and give 3-4 feet of snow at 192 hours on a captured TC into a longwave trough supplying an unusually cold early season airmass.....lol.

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