Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look a those erly anomalies there lol.

I know wow.  Yeah, it is a standing wave - how else do we define that.   Waves will assign a near stationary position in a streamline if the forces are closely balanced.   interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully this set sup shop and we continue to get modoki forcing.

I suspect this cold wave ( or "shot" ..whatever we wanna call it) in early November is useful for a more distant projection.  Like Will has said in the past, "shot across the bow"   I think that is portends as the autumn ages on.  How much so and all that, notwithstanding or mentioned here.

It's complex but the most simplified way I can say it is:  -EPOs that are consistent with rising PDO o'er top RONI warm ENSO, amid a faster velocity jet tendency will smear the EPO --> PNA relay/transition both faster but more cold across the continent.  Perhaps 'gradient' if I use the local vernacular ?  Think of a hybrid between gradient, and shorter patter residences.

I really see the models struggling with that idea in the actualized daily depictions that run over into the first week of November.  Just between you and me and everyone else...if we snowed a synoptic event, even if middling and or unremarkable, during the first week of November - wouldn't shock me at all.   And, if we were 75 F a week later, makes sense given these 'super synoptic' methods.

[Layman]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever we wanna/need to call it aside, to 99% of civility we have a spectacular series of days coming up this week.

Couldn't be happier.  The longer I can hold off turning on the heat in this little money pit home of mine the better. 

I suspect there is some chiseling going on that is not being as scrutinized/monitored (because the world is preoccupied by more imminent threat models) between these grid-scaled power companies and their relationship to suppliers.  There is an ongoing shift of power generation away from bulk/macro, which is/was always reliant primarily upon fossil fuels ... blah blah, toward renewables.  They are claiming that there is fuel supply shortage - that may be. But there is in fact no actual shortage in nature. The shortage - if so - is imposing because CC correction is now an imperative complexity.  So ... they've jack prices espousing supply not meeting demand but that is a lie.  I don't trust that. 

I believe these absurdly soaring monthly bills are really these company's shifting their losses, from the upsurge in renewable/rebate programs and the imperative combined, reducing their profits ... back onto the general population.  

F you. 

Sorry if it sounds socialist ...but there should really be a base grid in the telecom, and other basic social service necessities that avails to the ballast of the general population; a centralized infrastructure that the government can then work with complete control and disclosure toward renewable solutions. Then, if people want more than their/that base provision ...THAT is when they can reach out to commercial and/or privately own resources with their own revenue and pay for it. 

But, in the end ... even if only half right with the above 'hot take' on the 'real' cause for these soaring electrical bills, the whole of it would be ultimately self defeating for the power companies. Because ...they are going to end up igniting the fervor of the masses. En masse there will be incentives to cut them off in lieu of the renewables. 

The only problem with solar and other programs ... they are only dubiously affordable. From what I can tell, loaded with 'fine print' economics.  These are greedy start up and or preexisting enterprises seeing the prospect and going 'cha ching cha ching' And they've already inundated this new market space with the incentive of profit. Where are the programs there for the virtuosity of saving the planet's life?

This whole CC thing, real whether you want or can believe it or not (unfortunately), really is an "inconvenient truth," ironically.  Capitalism cannot solve this issue - it has to be incentivized around not dying, and less about denying and/or leveraging for that way.

You (and others?) may find this data interesting:

Localized New England power generation by source.  It gets even more granular than this, but the data provided encompasses the top level categories:  https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix 

Photovoltaic comprises 3% of total generation.  To meaningfully affect the residential rate, you're going to need hundreds of millions of dollars in rebates, not also subsidized by the federal government to have an impact.  For example, a project in NH that I had some familiarity with that cost approximately $130 million added somewhere around $0.005 per MWh to the residential electric rate.  While the electric companies are considered private, between the FERC, ISO's, PUC's, etc they are so embedded in government and regulation they may as well be wholly controlled by the government. 

 

A very recent IEA paper looking at the logistics of transitioning to a renewable based electric grid in the coming 2-3 decades:  https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/70f2de45-6d84-4e07-bfd0-93833e205c81/ElectricityGridsandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf 

An interesting takeaway was that to reach current stated goals by 2050, about 50 million miles of the electric grid would need to be refurbished and added to.  This amount is equal to the entire existing global grid.  

 

Anyway, it's a lot of data on a topic you seem passionate about and you may find useful/interesting.  

 

How about that Northern New England snow?!  It's coming...

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, Layman said:

You (and others?) may find this data interesting:

Localized New England power generation by source.  It gets even more granular than this, but the data provided encompasses the top level categories:  https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix 

Photovoltaic comprises 3% of total generation.  To meaningfully affect the residential rate, you're going to need hundreds of millions of dollars in rebates, not also subsidized by the federal government to have an impact.  For example, a project in NH that I had some familiarity with that cost approximately $130 million added somewhere around $0.005 per MWh to the residential electric rate.  While the electric companies are considered private, between the FERC, ISO's, PUC's, etc they are so embedded in government and regulation they may as well be wholly controlled by the government. 

 

A very recent IEA paper looking at the logistics of transitioning to a renewable based electric grid in the coming 2-3 decades:  https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/70f2de45-6d84-4e07-bfd0-93833e205c81/ElectricityGridsandSecureEnergyTransitions.pdf 

An interesting takeaway was that to reach current stated goals by 2050, about 50 million miles of the electric grid would need to be refurbished and added to.  This amount is equal to the entire existing global grid.  

 

Anyway, it's a lot of data on a topic you seem passionate about and you may find useful/interesting.  

 

How about that Northern New England snow?!  It's coming...

Good info -

I would only ask, it's not just the physically realized - as in where we are now in the growth of offsets. There are restrictions on fossil fuels being imposed upon these companies. There's no shortage of oil and coal - there is a necessity to stop using them. There is a shift toward cleaner gas(NAT) as a cleaner alternative - as part of that restriction. So yeah ... solar/wind/hydro .. these programs are small compared. But they will grow - 

It's the entire manifold of how the state of the system is being powered, and where that affects/effects the economics ending up in the laps of the consumer as clandestine shift - for lack of better word. I don't wanna come off as paranoid either lol.  But the whole of it needs to be scrutinized.

Regardless ... the cause, running a 300 $bill close to 800 for the same edifice looks like a shifting losses operation. This is a fossil fuel exit economic strategy - and at the end the day, and full disclosure, I'd rather the companies not be defended out of hand ...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Renewables are all about the benjamins baby . Any good initial  intentions tend to be less profitable and phased out . One the one hand they Accelerate “ phasing out gas and your opinion of it ..in the name of saving the environment.” an idea that companies hyper focused on profits Find convenient coupled with the other convenience that voters seem to vote for happy sounding ideas that don’t have a snowballs chance of saving the environment or even trying to ..just the best effective means to market to emotions (*when corporations run congress and their advertising dollars fill most media add space it isn’t hard to line up corporate interests with Forming favorable public opinion )* and get folks clamoring for renewables that (are currently lobbying for their piece of a market share) ..often  it is those most Economically privileged ..who take the bait..too show how forward thinking they are and not to upset their pc standing amongst friends .. all the while contributing to the forces that lower the supply of gas the planet still needs , in effect driving up inflation in energy (and food) and aiding to create more poverty but that is left out of the marketing pamphlets across various media when opinions are being shaped .
 

But it’s more a reflection of companies being able to run free  without consumer protections And so it’s in their DNA to maximize profits . You can find this in the USA across multiple industries, namely pharma and the prices charged compared to other advanced nations .

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Its not a warm-up, many places will be challenging all-time October records across several days

But downplay all you want 

May threaten some daily records, but all-time?  Fuggetaboutit.  Most sites in the Northeast have October all-times +/-90.  My short (26th year) record for the month is a mere 80° and we might get up to 70 in the coming torch.

40+ hours of near-continuous light RA added up to 1.87", month at 4.19".  Oct avg is 5.65", so we'll finish BN.

[WinterWolf]

Just to add a little perspective…I remember November of ‘02 being very mild for a stretch(I remember because I was riding my Harley a few days and it was gorgeous(like late spring gorgeous).  So I looked back, and it was the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th that were exceptionally warm, especially for 2nd week of November. The 10th was 69-70, and the 11th was 66 or so. The 8th and 9th were mid 60’s as well.  
 

A couple weeks later on the night before T Giving we had snow into T giving morning if I remember right.   And then that winter ended up being a very good one for SNE(winter 02-03). Just some food for thought. 
 

And before anybody says I’m angry or whatever about the warm days….just know I’m gonna enjoy this nice warm up…I have no issues with it whatsoever.  
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!!

Beautiful. Hope it continues thru Mowvember.

[TheCloser24]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to add a little perspective…I remember November of ‘02 being very mild for a stretch(I remember because I was riding my Harley a few days and it was gorgeous(like late spring gorgeous).  So I looked back, and it was the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th that were exceptionally warm, especially for 2nd week of November. The 10th was 69-70, and the 11th was 66 or so. The 8th and 9th were mid 60’s as well.  
 

A couple weeks later on the night before T Giving we had snow into T giving morning if I remember right.   And then that winter ended up being a very good one for SNE(winter 02-03). Just some food for thought. 
 

And before anybody says I’m angry or whatever about the warm days….just know I’m gonna enjoy this nice warm up…I have no issues with it whatsoever.  
 

 

November 2009 was also very mild.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Colors looking pretty decent in S NH right now 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just to add a little perspective…I remember November of ‘02 being very mild for a stretch(I remember because I was riding my Harley a few days and it was gorgeous(like late spring gorgeous).  So I looked back, and it was the 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th that were exceptionally warm, especially for 2nd week of November. The 10th was 69-70, and the 11th was 66 or so. The 8th and 9th were mid 60’s as well.  
 

A couple weeks later on the night before T Giving we had snow into T giving morning if I remember right.   And then that winter ended up being a very good one for SNE(winter 02-03). Just some food for thought. 
 

And before anybody says I’m angry or whatever about the warm days….just know I’m gonna enjoy this nice warm up…I have no issues with it whatsoever.  
 

 

The irony is that Nov 2002 had some really cold periods because the tropical forcing went La Nina for a while. When I say "La Nina", I mean the typical phases we might see in mid-winter during La Nina. Those phases are usually warm in mid-winter, but they are cold in November (esp early/mid November)

La Nina forcing is what also aided the frigid cold and multiple snow events in mid-November 1986. If you want to maximize the cold, then we'd prob want MJO in the "warmer" winter phases in November which tend to be colder that month as explained above, and then return to the 8/1/2 phases in December, which often happens in real La Ninas...that's why many LA Ninas like 2007 or 2017 have cold Decembers....because the forcing tends to go 8/1/2 in December La Nina a bit more frequently. El Nino is usually the opposite....crap phases like 4/5/6 in December and then it goes full winter as we go deeper into winter.

 

Now tropical forcing isn't everything....we can be cold even when tropical forcing kind of sucks....but it usually takes something to overwhelm it like exotic blocking.

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Beautiful. Hope it continues thru Mowvember.

I’ll enjoy a few days of warmth but I prefer the step downs. Normal would be totally fine until Dec 1 for me. 

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

La Nina forcing is what also aided the frigid cold and multiple snow events in mid-November 1986.

I recall one Thanksgiving in the 80's where it felt like deep winter - must've been 1986.  Being young enough at the time to still be impressionable, that time period unfortunately programmed me to believe for far too long that we should have serious snowstorms throughout November.  

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Layman said:

I recall one Thanksgiving in the 80's where it felt like deep winter - must've been 1986.  Being young enough at the time to still be impressionable, that time period unfortunately programmed me to believe for far too long that we should have serious snowstorms throughout November.  

T Giving in 89 had a very nice snowstorm too. That led to a frigid December. Rest of the winter didn’t do to well,  but it was cold at that time.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ll enjoy a few days of warmth but I prefer the step downs. Normal would be totally fine until Dec 1 for me. 

The older I get, the less I care for useless cold in the fall. Burning oil to keep the house at 65 in Oct is useless as well. 

[ineedsnow]

• nice Halloween snowstorm CNE to northern New England on the GFS

[Layman]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

T Giving in 89 had a very nice snowstorm too. That led to a frigid December. Rest of the winter didn’t do to well,  but it was cold at that time.  

The entirety of my weather memories are fragmented.  That's one of the reasons I like reading the threads here - so many of you have clear data or recollections of specific storms, months, winters, etc.  Unless I've got pictures or something major happened, it's tough for me to put a date on it.  

I've seen a lot of mentions of the deep cold and snow drought of the 1980's.  My biggest memories are that Thanksgiving where we had deep, plowable snow and multiple years from 1986-1988 where I would go snowboarding at Pat's Peak on the Blue Eastern Hardpack (ice!).  Pat's Peak was one of the only resorts allowing snowboarding at the time and my Burton Woody Performer struggled to perform in those conditions!  Back at home I remember having lots of months with no snow to speak of and the bitter cold.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

• nice Halloween snowstorm CNE to northern New England on the GFS

More like far NNE elevations, but who’s counting

 

 

[ineedsnow]

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Seasonable

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, Layman said:

The entirety of my weather memories are fragmented.  That's one of the reasons I like reading the threads here - so many of you have clear data or recollections of specific storms, months, winters, etc.  Unless I've got pictures or something major happened, it's tough for me to put a date on it.  

I've seen a lot of mentions of the deep cold and snow drought of the 1980's.  My biggest memories are that Thanksgiving where we had deep, plowable snow and multiple years from 1986-1988 where I would go snowboarding at Pat's Peak on the Blue Eastern Hardpack (ice!).  Pat's Peak was one of the only resorts allowing snowboarding at the time and my Burton Woody Performer struggled to perform in those conditions!  Back at home I remember having lots of months with no snow to speak of and the bitter cold.

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

[Hazey]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

Yeah now it's just rainy cutters followed by mild downs. Fingers crossed this winter bucks the trend.

[Damage In Tolland]

When it’s cold and snowy in AK, the northeast is generally mild. Take any big cold shots with a grain of salt 

https://x.com/nwsfairbanks/status/1716384333370724610?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Renewables are all about the benjamins baby . Any good initial  intentions tend to be less profitable and phased out . One the one hand they Accelerate “ phasing out gas and your opinion of it ..in the name of saving the environment.” an idea that companies hyper focused on profits Find convenient coupled with the other convenience that voters seem to vote for happy sounding ideas that don’t have a snowballs chance of saving the environment or even trying to ..just the best effective means to market to emotions (*when corporations run congress and their advertising dollars fill most media add space it isn’t hard to line up corporate interests with Forming favorable public opinion )* and get folks clamoring for renewables that (are currently lobbying for their piece of a market share) ..often  it is those most Economically privileged ..who take the bait..too show how forward thinking they are .. all the while contributing to the forces that lower the supply of gas the planet still needs , in effect driving up inflation in energy (and food) and aiding to create more poverty but that is left out of the marketing pamphlets across various media when opinions are being shaped .
 

But it’s more a reflection of companies being able to run free  without consumer protections And so it’s in their DNA to maximize profits . You can find this in the USA across multiple industries, namely pharma and the prices charged compared to other advanced nations .

I always say if you don’t like the cost of a product or the way a corporation does things, the simplest solution is don’t buy the product from that company.  Consumers are enabled in this regard.  Simple.  Their power is the money, and that is the enabling power that the consumers actually hold.  

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

Depended on location, of course.  1981-82 and 83-84 (Fort Kent) were very snowy and 86-87 (Gardiner) had ~50" in January and a long deep pack.  Then the pre-Thanksgiving blizzard that began the 6-week cold snap in 1989 included the 2nd of my 3 lifetime thundersnows.  (Other 2 are 12/24/1966 in NNJ [thought the first crack was sonic boom  because snow/thunder "couldn't happen"] and 2/11/2005 here.)

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow... the MEX MOS is running 20 to 22 above climatology for D5 around the inland BDL-FIT-BED arc, for thu thru sat.  Considering those machine numbers are weighted increasingly toward climo the further out in time, jesus.  Check Brian - he seems to know the latest with that sort of stuff but sufficed it is to say, doing that much above, at that range, takes an extraordinary signal to push that. 

[rclab]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

I remember growing up in the 50’s, my father saying that it was cold enough to snow or too cold to snow. Knowing little more than I do now about the machinations of the atmosphere I hung onto the 12 inch Magnavox weather forecasts or the radio. I would get so angry when it was so cold because invariably I’d hear the same radio refrain; “increasing cloudiness and milder”. The weather guy on Dave Garroways today show would say, we  need one of these lows to the south to plug into one of these cold highs over us to get snow. Such, as a child was I satisfied. Now, in the last of my years, hearing what it takes to get snow to the coastal plain I think of such simplicity as nostalgic and endearing. Thank you for the memory ORH. Stay well, as always …

 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The older I get, the less I care for useless cold in the fall. Burning oil to keep the house at 65 in Oct is useless as well. 

you need a woodstove.....It is amazing during October and November. A few hours of burning it and the house is well over 70°. The best part is, it only takes a few good pieces to get the temperature up to those levels....

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, rclab said:

I remember growing up in the 50’s, my father saying that it was cold enough to snow or too cold to snow. Knowing little more than I do now about the machinations of the atmosphere I hung onto the 12 inch Magnavox weather forecasts or the radio. I would get so angry when it was so cold because invariably I’d hear the same radio refrain; “increasing cloudiness and milder”. The weather guy on Dave Garroways today show would say, we  need one of these lows to the south to plug into one of these cold highs over us to get snow. Such, as a child was I satisfied. Now, in the last of my years, hearing what it takes to get snow to the coastal plain I think of such simplicity as nostalgic and endearing. Thank you for the memory ORH. Stay well, as always …

 

Damn-I remember all of that!   But once I discovered uncle wethbee it was over for me.  

[weathafella]

65 is too chilly for my liking.  We keep it at 68.  It’s rarely been kicking on but the radiators were warm to touch during my 4am quick bathroom run.