Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: She loves it. It was snowing very low down under 2000ft when I left the hill. @alex mixing at 1500ft isn’t surprising. Good first walk in the snow and winter environment today. 1” at the Stake officially, ha. We are on the board. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 34 with snow now but not sticking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yup. Looked like 1/3rd of an inch of freezing rain before snow. Very icy up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yup. Looked like 1/3rd of an inch of freezing rain before snow. Very icy up there. Not sure If the cape saw scenes that wintry last winter 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Stick season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, kdxken said: Stick season. That’s more like dead season… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st. That is absolutely insane. I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record. If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow. Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st. That is absolutely insane. I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record. If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow. Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Not sure If the cape saw scenes that wintry last winter lol the islands didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2023 Author Share Posted October 23, 2023 First 30’s of the season here . 39.1 currently with wind. Still fine to run in shorts . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Hey all.....I had to get a new computer and no longer have lost the booksmarks I had for my good modeling sites. I don't recall which ones I was using so will be starting from scratch. If you have any that you find useful, tia for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 After record late October heat it cools off for a few days only for another ridge to form based on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st. That is absolutely insane. I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record. If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow. Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening. Pretty crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2023 Author Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: First 30’s of the season here . 39.1 currently with wind. Still fine to run in shorts . Bottomed out at 38.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: After record late October heat it cools off for a few days only for another ridge to form based on ensembles. Winter is over. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: After record late October heat it cools off for a few days only for another ridge to form based on ensembles. .....correct!.....where have we seen that pattern before??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Got to 44 here with some wind and apparent rain. Felt like last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: .....correct!.....where have we seen that pattern before??? Just makes warm season that much closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: After record late October heat it cools off for a few days only for another ridge to form based on ensembles. Yeah outside of a few cooler days, warmth looks to continue unabated for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just makes warm season that much closer! isn't it always warm season??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: isn't it always warm season??? Correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Run the GEFS 5 day anomaly out to Nov 26th from 0Z yesterday…that’s not what it shows at all. Near record warmth, followed by a 3-5 day cold shot with some -10 anomalies, then a near normal month. It’s fantasy land, but so is a call for unabated warmth. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Low of 37.6° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Whatever we wanna/need to call it aside, to 99% of civility we have a spectacular series of days coming up this week. Couldn't be happier. The longer I can hold off turning on the heat in this little money pit home of mine the better. I suspect there is some chiseling going on that is not being as scrutinized/monitored (because the world is preoccupied by more imminent threat models) between these grid-scaled power companies and their relationship to suppliers. There is an ongoing shift of power generation away from bulk/macro, which is/was always reliant primarily upon fossil fuels ... blah blah, toward renewables. They are claiming that there is fuel supply shortage - that may be. But there is in fact no actual shortage in nature. The shortage - if so - is imposing because CC correction is now an imperative complexity. So ... they've jack prices espousing supply not meeting demand but that is a lie. I don't trust that. I believe these absurdly soaring monthly bills are really these company's shifting their losses, from the upsurge in renewable/rebate programs and the imperative combined, reducing their profits ... back onto the general population. F you. Sorry if it sounds socialist ...but there should really be a base grid in the telecom, and other basic social service necessities that avails to the ballast of the general population; a centralized infrastructure that the government can then work with complete control and disclosure toward renewable solutions. Then, if people want more than their/that base provision ...THAT is when they can reach out to commercial and/or privately own resources with their own revenue and pay for it. But, in the end ... even if only half right with the above 'hot take' on the 'real' cause for these soaring electrical bills, the whole of it would be ultimately self defeating for the power companies. Because ...they are going to end up igniting the fervor of the masses. En masse there will be incentives to cut them off in lieu of the renewables. The only problem with solar and other programs ... they are only dubiously affordable. From what I can tell, loaded with 'fine print' economics. These are greedy start up and or preexisting enterprises seeing the prospect and going 'cha ching cha ching' And they've already inundated this new market space with the incentive of profit. Where are the programs there for the virtuosity of saving the planet's life? This whole CC thing, real whether you want or can believe it or not (unfortunately), really is an "inconvenient truth," ironically. Capitalism cannot solve this issue - it has to be incentivized around not dying, and less about denying and/or leveraging for that way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Run the GEFS 5 day anomaly out to Nov 26th from 0Z yesterday…that’s not what it shows at all. Near record warmth, followed by a 3-5 day cold shot with some -10 anomalies, then a near normal month. It’s fantasy land, but so is a call for unabated warmth. . Looks like the MJO is kind of rotting near the phase 8/1 line as we go into November....that's actually a semi-mild composite for November despite being a very cold look in Dec/Jan....so I'm fine with it. That's where we want the tropical forcing to set up going into winter. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the MJO is kind of rotting near the phase 8/1 line as we go into November....that's actually a semi-mild composite for November despite being a very cold look in Dec/Jan....so I'm fine with it. That's where we want the tropical forcing to set up going into winter. Yeah ..it's been doing that for over 3 weeks ...perhaps a month or even 5 weeks as far back as I can recall. I don't believe it is entirely unsuccessful in adding momentum to the system. The reason I say this is because there are observed aspect that are highly correlated to the 8-1-2 RMM spaces going on. Such as the 850 mb W wind over the east Pac and the associated TC activity there. Also, the WPO is pretty exceptionally negative... It's like it's held back but leaking dynamics You know what it 'seems' like? It seems like the wave is perhaps analogous (if not so) a standing wave.. Maybe there are about 50/50 constructive and destructive interferences in competition and things have locked ( so to speak ..). The IOD being in place is probably creating the local walker circulation doom for the wave cycling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Based on the +IOD it should rot in Phase 8-1-2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Based on the +IOD it should rot in Phase 8-1-2 Oh, yup. I just added that to my own post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh, yup. I just added that to my own post. Look a those erly anomalies there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Hopefully this set sup shop and we continue to get modoki forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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