CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Halloween-ish hasn’t changed EPS wise. After we may see the cold more in plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: All along we said the red maples looked good and they do. Everything eye ugly yellow and browns. Lack luster year It’s not just the red maples…there’s good color. Not spectacular…but good. Much better than what it looked to be 2-4 wks ago. Point is, it wasn’t gonna be rushed. The cool down won’t be either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Beautiful day and we still have leaves. Must not have got the 50 mph winds some were calling for... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Ya…99% of the time you take the under on any wind in SNE…that’s a given. Yet some folks always fall for the pretty big numbers on the modeling. Im actually glad the wind didn’t materialize…keep the leaves up a little bit longer, especially since they are looking nice the last week or so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Wind fail, foliage fail, cool-down fail. Wow 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Wind fail, foliage fail, cool-down fail. Wow Wind fail for sure. But…No foliage fail here. Actually foliage triumphant now. Looking dam good in that department. The cool down is coming…just have to be patient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wind fail for sure. But…No foliage fail here. Actually foliage triumphant now. Looking dam good in that department. The cool down is coming…just have to be patient. I guess after more record October heat it'll feel cool. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 Just a lackluster year https://x.com/kitchencivilian/status/1716061282795737403?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 12 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Why can’t we get storms like this in January? We do get storms like this in January ... In fact, over the last 5 years it's been more common than not lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Cold look has definitely moderated some over the last few days. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only weather you got. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just a lackluster year https://x.com/kitchencivilian/status/1716061282795737403?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg you should take a ride on rt202 between Belchertown and Orange.. Spectacular right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: you should take a ride on rt202 between Belchertown and Orange.. Spectacular right now I travel all over New England. Overall it’s been a down foliage year. Certain species have good color and yes now is the best it’s looked. But overall it’s been a drab, lackluster year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I travel all over New England. Overall it’s been a down foliage year. Certain species have good color and yes now is the best it’s looked. But overall it’s been a drab, lackluster year Agreed. But even a lackluster year has some good moments. Cheer up Buttercup 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Cold look has definitely moderated some over the last few days. Enjoy the warmth, it’s the only weather you got. Was not hard to see that slipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Was not hard to see that slipping PNA drops as we retorch for Kevin’s 80th birthday. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Ski resorts snow guns put on hold is basically what the cold down fail does for ski folk. hopefully anything cuts to Chicago and gives us warmth without rain soaked days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It’s not just the red maples…there’s good color. Not spectacular…but good. Much better than what it looked to be 2-4 wks ago. Point is, it wasn’t gonna be rushed. The cool down won’t be either. I drove over the Kancamagus coming to Maine Friday and was surprised that there was still some good foliage all along the way. As @powderfreakpointed out, it’s was the understory trees and bushes that were putting on the show. Lots of good oranges and yellows closer to the ground. The main trees are in full stick season mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 I don’t think it’s really a cold fail? Possibly just delayed for a day or two…maybe not at all. Details aside, it’s still a similar look with the cold spilling into the Plains and eventually getting advected into the region around the flip of the month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don’t think it’s really a cold fail? Possibly just delayed for a day or two…maybe not at all. Details aside, it’s still a similar look with the cold spilling into the Plains and eventually getting advected into the region around the flip of the month. Yeah that hasn’t changed. At least on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Wed - Fri looks great! Might need to take a day off for yard work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Ski resorts snow guns put on hold is basically what the cold down fail does for ski folk. hopefully anything cuts to Chicago and gives us warmth without rain soaked days Killington starts blowing early next week and is open on the north ridge by the weekend. Nothing has changed. No one else besides maybe SR would have seriously considered opening yet. I bet all major resorts turn on guns above 2500 midweek if there’s a 72 hour window. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 This shows the progression of the back off we’ve seen. It’s now 75-80 for 4-5 days and the mild down is pushed to Nov 3.. and the cold dumps to the west of apps.. and is delivered into the NE on sw flow. That trajectory is greatly modified. This is assuming Euro is correct https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1716086699145511332?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Why are we using fantasy op runs and not ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2023 Author Share Posted October 22, 2023 Because we’ve seen it now in multiple runs and models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 The cold is coming and should be intense. WPO and EPO are tanking and ao is slightly negative. That alone is a cold signal for most east of the rockies imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 I don’t really see much of a change. It wasn’t this cold shot that supposed to hang around for days. Most of us said it’s transient. Winter starts in the plains shortly after. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t really see much of a change. It wasn’t this cold shot that supposed to hang around for days. Most of us said it’s transient. Winter starts in the plains shortly after. It was never going to be long lasting. The N pac rex block causing the -pna and the subsequent flip to cold is only going to last 5 days, so both warm and cold are going to be transitory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I don’t think it’s really a cold fail? Possibly just delayed for a day or two…maybe not at all. Details aside, it’s still a similar look with the cold spilling into the Plains and eventually getting advected into the region around the flip of the month. Telecon spread's still hitting it pretty hard. Not willing to sell just yet. Yesterday I did an op ed discussing early Novie as a cold signal in the winter thread - those aspect/points are all still valid from what I'm seeing since. We'll see how it lines up. The above index spread ( from all sources, too) is a pretty solid canonical evolution that typically ends well for cold and storm enthusiasts from late N through F. This early in the ensuing cold season? mmm can present certain challenges to delivery. To mention, the model volatility during transition seasons ... These caveats were included. I've noticed in recent years ( since mid aughts) that these entire ensemble weighted index mode projections are more unstable than they were in the 1990s. I've seen more chunks of days where they are showing good continuity for a warm(cool) biased pattern, suddenly reverse and/or just slip a lot of magnitude from seeming no forcing too. It's rattled confidences in the technology suite a little. yup. Hypothesis: fast flow/velocity saturation with additional hemispheric scaled gradient is causing that. Add this caveat,too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 People are grousing lol. I'd say we've already moved the CC needle enough to damage our winters. That is, compared to those Rockwellian vibes that well-up from the catacombs of our memories to early life, in the relative sense. It's actually a testament to the rapidity in which this shit's happening. Like ... in a single life time. Those with a will to be unbiased, however successful notwithstanding ... might happen to sense that's the case: something is definitely fucked up. That all said, I don't believe winter's are FUBAR, either. There'll still be plenty of cold air around at times. There will be storms that avail of it. But there will also be storms that don't time so well, AND, I feel we've prooobably crossed a threshold in CC where these latter event profiles have silently become more frequent. Set expectations around that being the case, and let the dice roll - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All along we said the red maples looked good and they do. Everything eye ugly yellow and browns. Lack luster year As Mr Ginxy would say...Wut? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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