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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weenie post…..but if extrapolated the euro op probably would have an interesting event post day 10. 
 

I know I know……but nothing else going on.

I like it when you post like this…why not put it out there.  I’d never throw a weenie for that :thumbsup:.  
 

Thanks for sharing My Shepherd. 

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weenie post…..but if extrapolated the euro op probably would have an interesting event post day 10. 
 

I know I know……but nothing else going on.

Been a while since we had consistent N PAC look like that with the decent western ridge. I expect just a cold shot out of the general longwave look, but we obviously know that snow can happen that time of the year even if not all that frequently.

 

image.png.47c078f22f876fecd03f3313d3cc351e.png

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Foliage appeared to have two aspects going on...

 One, this Septoria fungus hurt a lot of trees. Those that were damaged tended to down leafs prematurely along with a poorer color presentation, much of which began a couple of weeks earlier than normal ( end-ish of September). 

 Two, those that were not affected appear to be transitioning into their expression peak a week to some 10 days late. 

It seems this latter aspect is 'salvaging' the season for some areas.  Lot of species that I grew up with would not carry on saffron and reds this late into October. Usually done by the 12th or 15th...  Interestingly, Oaks are going yellow up here - so there's something weird with them too

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not the best season for foliage, but it’s still pretty solid here. 

In New England, below average colors are still quite pretty.  The one truly bad foliage season here was 2005. the year with no reds.  A week into October there was maybe 30% change, mostly to dull yellow.  Then the 8-9 weekend brought nearly 6" of wind-driven RA and on Monday at least 80% of the leaves were on the ground.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Been a while since we had consistent N PAC look like that with the decent western ridge. I expect just a cold shot out of the general longwave look, but we obviously know that snow can happen that time of the year even if not all that frequently.

 

image.png.47c078f22f876fecd03f3313d3cc351e.png

Look at the H5 vorticity. Can see how something could happen shown.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at the H5 vorticity. Can see how something could happen shown.

Yeah. Actually looks an awful lot like 10/10/79…with that wave developing along the frontal boundary. 

Regardless, EPS is really hitting the cold hard on todays 12z run for Halloween and just afterward. 

 

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