powderfreak Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Been a bit tuned out on recent developments for our weekend storm, so I only just now have caught up on how this thing has trended... what a shame if this was January. Hopefully we are getting our blown phases out of the way in the preseason (at least according to the GFS) Looking at the Z500 evolution is especially painful with the southerly vort getting slung out east. Make no mistake about it, this would be a solid hit, but more in the "close but no cigar" caliber rather than a true classic. One final note, take a look at a rare October Manitoba Mauler diving into the midwest upstream of our weekend storm The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means. These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support. We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha. The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while. We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north. They are what allow the temperatures to drop. There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet. The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation. Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means. These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support. We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha. The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while. We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north. They are what allow the temperatures to drop. There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet. The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation. Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow. Last year , i Wouldn’t be surprised if we had the least amount of sub 25 dew points hours in DJFM for a few SNE stations and actually even further north as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Last year , i Wouldn’t be surprised if we had the least amount of sub 25 dew points hours in DJFM for a few SNE stations To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth. It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs. You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible. The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth. It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs. You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible. The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience. I want to try and track down the dewpoint data for last winter , I’m willing to bet it was top 3 dewiest for many in area of S NH to N mass (maybe others as well ). There were so few nights that were below the mid 20’s from early January thru mid February IIRC In Bedford Mass for last January the average low is 21 Jan 1 and 18 by end of month . We had 6 days break below 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hopefully the euro is right here and we can salvage a mostly dry weekend Drunk? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Drunk? He might be. Weekend is hosed overall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I want to try and track down the dewpoint data for last winter , I’m willing to bet it was top 3 dewiest for many in area of S NH to N mass (maybe others as well ). There were so few nights that were below the mid 20’s from early January thru mid February IIRC In Bedford Mass for last January the average low is 21 Jan 1 and 18 by end of month . We had 6 days break below 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Some potent cold shots on the Gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where are folks getting these delusional ideas about bitter cold shots, freezes and a cold Nov coming? I mean there’s nothing that shows any of that . Sure there’ll be a fake frost in spots Tuesday . Other than that warm rules roosts 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some potent cold shots on the Gfs. hmmm, who do I trust here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2023 Author Share Posted October 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some potent cold shots on the Gfs. The ones Monday and early Nov once looked potent too . Now both back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: hmmm, who do I trust here? I’m just telling you what it shows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ones Monday and early Nov once looked potent too . Now both back off Monday not really. Early November got colder on those runs. Probably overdone, but it tells you that some BN temps possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Weeklies look N to just AN for Novie. I’d probably lean AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 I always think these aspects are interesting ... You could travel from Brownsville TX to the border of Montana with Canada, and never see a cloud on any distant horizon the entire way.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2023 Author Share Posted October 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Monday not really. Early November got colder on those runs. Probably overdone, but it tells you that some BN temps possible. Monday at one point looked chilly with highs near 50 and fake cold spots dropping to below freezing. Now its 55-60 Monday and 35-40 that night in coldest fake spots . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ones Monday and early Nov once looked potent too . Now both back off looks cold to me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 I see we’re starting clown season before we even hit freezing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I see we’re starting clown season before we even hit freezing. From canes to clowns. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Monday at one point looked chilly with highs near 50 and fake cold spots dropping to below freezing. Now its 55-60 Monday and 35-40 that night in coldest fake spots . You’ll be near 50 or just above Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some potent cold shots on the Gfs. The idea of cooling off the eastern continent in the first week of November has legs. Magnitude? ...yeah, cross that bridge... General reader: there are some pretty identifiable and classic mass field behaviors going on in the guidance spread (foreign and domestic) - namely, a relay from a potent early -EPO into a distant ( presumed ...) elevation of the PNA. That's the canonical practice in the time-lag relationship between those particular very important indexes for loading east of the Pacific... blah blah ... = a cooling implication evolves by that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I see we’re starting clown season before we even hit freezing. At least it would be November snow, can check off the October snow omen....lol, I just want a freeze to kill off the mosquitos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: From canes to clowns. I'm nominating this for the title of the November thread... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2023 Author Share Posted October 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: looks cold to me Here’s how we know that won’t happen. That’s my bday. In 50 years it has never snowed that day . And this will not be it either . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here’s how we know that won’t happen. That’s my bday. In 50 years it has never snowed that day . And this will not be it either . Narrowly missed snow in 2014....I think that was the day Blue Hill got a couple inches but west of Rt 128 didn't get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Narrowly missed snow in 2014....I think that was the day Blue Hill got a couple inches but west of Rt 128 didn't get much of anything. He missed it by a couple days in 2020 too…when it snowed on Friday the 30th of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Some potent cold shots on the Gfs. It’s starting…nice step down. Steady as she goes. Heading in the correct direction is the takeaway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Narrowly missed snow in 2014....I think that was the day Blue Hill got a couple inches but west of Rt 128 didn't get much of anything. Yes. I recall he was mad. Even the coast had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 It’s starting…nice step down. Steady as she goes. Heading in the correct direction is the takeaway. The idea that Halloween and early November are a torch we’re based off emotion, trolling and 384 maps. Could very well end AN, but the cool beginning appears real and I’ll take days 1-7 as -5 to -10 and go from there as opposed to the first 7 of October, which were an early fall gift. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 looks cold to meSnowvember?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 1 minute ago, bwt3650 said: The idea that Halloween and early November are a torch we’re based off emotion, trolling and 384 maps. Could very well end AN, but the cool beginning appears real and I’ll take days 1-7 as -5 to -10 and go from there as opposed to the first 7 of October, which were an early fall gift. . Spot on BWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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