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Octorcher or Roctober 2023 Discussion Thread


Damage In Tolland
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15 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Been a bit tuned out on recent developments for our weekend storm, so I only just now have caught up on how this thing has trended... what a shame if this was January. Hopefully we are getting our blown phases out of the way in the preseason (at least according to the GFS):yikes:

Looking at the Z500 evolution is especially painful with the southerly vort getting slung out east. Make no mistake about it, this would be a solid hit, but more in the "close but no cigar" caliber rather than a true classic.

One final note, take a look at a rare October Manitoba Mauler diving into the midwest upstream of our weekend storm

The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means.  These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support.

We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha.  The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while.

We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north.  They are what allow the temperatures to drop.  There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet.

The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation.  Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow.

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means.  These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support.

We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha.  The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while.

We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north.  They are what allow the temperatures to drop.  There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet.

The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation.  Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow.

Last year , i Wouldn’t be surprised if we had the least amount of sub 25 dew points hours in DJFM for a few SNE stations and actually even further north as well 

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Last year , i Wouldn’t be surprised if we had the least amount of sub 25 dew points hours in DJFM for a few SNE stations 

To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth.  It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs.  You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible.

The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience. 

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth.  It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs.  You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible.

The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience. 

I want to try and track down the dewpoint data for last winter , I’m willing to bet it was top 3 dewiest for many in area of S NH to N mass (maybe others as well ). There were so few nights that were below the mid 20’s from early January thru mid February IIRC

In Bedford Mass for last January the average low is 21 Jan 1 and 18 by end of month . We had 6 days break below 25

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7 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I want to try and track down the dewpoint data for last winter , I’m willing to bet it was top 3 dewiest for many in area of S NH to N mass (maybe others as well ). There were so few nights that were below the mid 20’s from early January thru mid February IIRC

In Bedford Mass for last January the average low is 21 Jan 1 and 18 by end of month . We had 6 days break below 25

image.png

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where are folks getting these delusional ideas about bitter cold shots, freezes and a cold Nov coming? I mean there’s nothing that shows any of that . Sure there’ll be a fake frost in spots Tuesday . Other than that warm rules roosts

 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some potent cold shots on the Gfs.

hmmm, who do I trust here?

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday not really. Early November got colder on those runs. Probably overdone, but it tells you that some BN temps possible.

Monday at one point looked chilly with highs near 50 and fake cold spots dropping to below freezing. Now its 55-60 Monday and 35-40 that night in coldest fake spots . 

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some potent cold shots on the Gfs.

The idea of cooling off the eastern continent in the first week of November has legs.

Magnitude?   ...yeah, cross that bridge...

General reader:  there are some pretty identifiable and classic mass field behaviors going on in the guidance spread (foreign and domestic) - namely, a relay from a potent early -EPO into a distant ( presumed ...) elevation of the PNA. That's the canonical practice in the time-lag relationship between those particular very important indexes for loading east of the Pacific... blah blah ... = a cooling implication evolves by that time.

 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s how we know that won’t happen. That’s my bday. In 50 years it has never snowed that day . And this will not be it either .

Narrowly missed snow in 2014....I think that was the day Blue Hill got a couple inches but west of Rt 128 didn't get much of anything.

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It’s starting…nice step down. Steady as she goes.  Heading in the correct direction is the takeaway. 

The idea that Halloween and early November are a torch we’re based off emotion, trolling and 384 maps. Could very well end AN, but the cool beginning appears real and I’ll take days 1-7 as -5 to -10 and go from there as opposed to the first 7 of October, which were an early fall gift.


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1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:


The idea that Halloween and early November are a torch we’re based off emotion, trolling and 384 maps. Could very well end AN, but the cool beginning appears real and I’ll take days 1-7 as -5 to -10 and go from there as opposed to the first 7 of October, which were an early fall gift.


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Spot on BWT. :thumbsup:

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